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To be ranked in the latest Interim Standings...forecasters must have entered at least four forecasts to be eligible under the 'two-thirds' rule.
After five storms...
First Place: Donsutherland1 with an average SUMSQ Z-score of -0.786
Second Place: Raven -0.749
Third Place: TQ -0.653
The third interim summary finds donsutherland1 maintaining his hold on 1st place. Raven moves up a notch to second. TQ jumps from 5th to 3rd.
A data table with the complete interim standing statistics...including Sum Squared Error (SUMSQ)...Storm Total Precipitation (STP)...Total Absolute Error (TAE)...Average Absolute Error (AAE)..and R-Squared (RSQ) at the web site.
The chart shows the distribution of forecaster SUMSQ Z-Scores (plum) and Total Absolute Error Z-Scores(cyan). Lower (higher) Z-Scores indicate better (worse) forecasts compared to all other forecasts made for each storm.
A Z-Score of 0 means the forecaster's error was equal to the average of all forecast errors. A Z-Score of -1 (+1) means the forecaster's error was 1 standard deviation below (above) the average of all forecast errors.