GooFuS has a coastal storm on the 7th as well; however...its genesis is in the northern stream leaving the SW bowling ball behind.
CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 03-DEC-16 @ 735 PM EST
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
!!! - Starts as soon as the flakes start flying - !!!
16th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries as passed
Summary and Analysis to be posted the weekend of 03-DEC-16.
Winter '15 / '16 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
17th Annual 'Regular Season'
15th Annual 'Season-total'
Verified forecasts here
Friday, December 31, 2010
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
STP: 20.65 (5)
AAE: 3.61 (4)
SUMSQ Z: -0.880
STP: 51.45 (8)
TAE: 104.25 (5)
AAE: 3.86 (5)
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category ranking
Full forecast verification and summary at the Contest web site.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
No snowfall data in the NWS climate bulletins for SBY. Verifying storm-total snowfall is the average of two vicinity station reports from AKQPNS. This station's snowfall reporting fell into a black hole last year and has yet to reappear.
Storm-total snowfall for CON looks suspicious given its relatively low water equivalent; however...vicinity reports carried in BOXPNS suggest the amount is accurate.
Twelve new daily records.
ISP - 11.3" (1"; 2003)
JFK - 10.5" (4.4"; 1969)
ACY - 17.4" (0.2"; 1970)
ORF - 13.4" (5"; 2004)
RDU - 6.7" (T; 2004)
CAR - 6.2" (5.4"; 2005)
BGR - 10.3" (4.1"; 1947)
BOS - 8.3" (5.7"; 1894)
BDR - 4" (1.1"; 1963)
BDL - 7" (4.7"; 1944)
JFK - 5.1" (3.2"; 1984)
EWR - 6.5" (4.7"; 1984)
Please report errors and a link to the correct data in Comments.
Final results and storm summary by WED evening.
Monday, December 27, 2010
Beautiful imagery from NASA/s Earth Observatory showing surface air temperature anomalies resulting from persistently negative Arctic Oscillation. Red (blue) areas are warm (cold) surface air temperature anomalies. "This image shows the temperature of the land surface for December 3-10, 2010 compared to the average temperature for the same period between 2002 and 2009."
The monthly Arctic Oscillation index has been below zero...15 out of 18 months since JUN-09. The AO fell to an all time low of -4.266 in FEB-10. Last winter's D-J-F average was -2.587.
Persistent HIGH pressure...often associated with a weak polar vortex (PV)...over the north pole allows arctic air to drain into low latitudes. Daily AO values have been negative since mid-NOV. This goes against type considering the QBO is in its westerly phase where the AO is typically positive...a consequence of a strong...cold PV.
From the NYT...
"But for all its bluster and powder, the monster storm was technically a blizzard only outside of Manhattan. The winds in Central Park topped out at 36 miles per hour but were not sustained over a period of three consecutive hours, nor was the visibility under a quarter of a mile for that period — both requirements to qualify as a blizzard.Blizzard conditions were observed at JFK but not at LGA where the SFC visibility never went below 1/4SM.
“We didn’t quite make the criteria in Central Park,” said Matt Scalora, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Central Park. “But we did meet the criteria at J.F.K. Airport and La Guardia,” he added."
KLGA 262346Z 35024G33KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN VV001
KLGA 262351Z 35026G37KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN VV001
KLGA 270051Z 35023G38KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN VV001
KLGA 270151Z 35026G43KT 1/4SM SN BLSN VV001
KLGA 270251Z 34025G38KT 1/4SM SN BLSN VV001
KLGA 270351Z 34027G40KT 1/4SM SN BLSN VV001
KLGA 270451Z 33031G40KT 1/4SM SN BLSN VV001
|03z SFC analysis|
Blizzards are high-wind storms where falling or blowing snow severely restricts the surface visibility for a period of three hours or more.
The blizzard began at JFK at 0151z (8:51 PM EST). The hour's METAR carries 0SM which is the tower visibility. SFC visibility is reported in the remarks as 1/8SM.
The wind was at or above the 30 kt threshold before and after the visibility condition was met. Blizzard conditions prevailed for three hours until 0451z (11:51 PM EST) when the SFC visibility improved to 1/4SM.
KJFK 270051Z 36029G38KT 1/4SM SN FZFG BLSN VV002
KJFK 270151Z 34034G42KT 0SM SN FZFG BLSN VV001 SFC VIS 1/8
KJFK 270251Z 34037G49KT 0SM SN FZFG BLSN VV001 SFC VSBY 1/8
KJFK 270351Z 34035G49KT 0SM SN FZFG BLSN VV001 SFC VIS 1/8
KJFK 270451Z 33031G44KT 1/8SM SN FZFG BLSN VV004 SFC VIS 1/4
KJFK 270459Z 34029G42KT 1/8SM SN FZFG BLSN VV005 SFC VIS 1/4
Similar story at HPN...
KHPN 270056Z 34024G32KT 1/4SM SN BLSN VV002
KHPN 270156Z 34030G41KT 0SM SN BLSN VV002
KHPN 270256Z 33028G45KT 0SM +SN BLSN VV001
KHPN 270356Z 33032G44KT 0SM +SN BLSN VV001
KHPN 270456Z 33034G48KT 0SM +SN BLSN VV001
KHPN 270556Z 33028G42KT 0SM +SN BLSN VV001
KHPN 270656Z 33030G43KT 3/4SM +SN BLSN VV002
Blizzard conditions began in White Plains at 8:56 PM (0156z) and ended at 1:56 AM (0656z)...lasting two hours longer than JFK.
These was a similar storm sixty-three years ago to the day (requires free Djvu plug-in).
|NYC/s 8th Avenue|
ACY - 1.60"
ORF - 1.22"
ACY - 10.9:1
ORF - 11:1
Updated 12/29 to revise EWR data.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
The rawinsonde's initial low-level flight drifted to the SW over open waters before veering toward Newark...NJ (EWR) and continuing to the north across western New England. EWR reported TSSN around the time of OKX's 0z balloon flight.
There's a deep...saturated moist layer between the SFC and 600 mb with 50 mb of conditional instability sitting on top.
The specific humidity in the crystal factory @700 mb is 4g/kg or more which can easily support snowfall rates over 1" / hr. Note the excellent WAA nose @ 700 mb forced strongly by a 40 kt SE wind.
Cloud-tops located near 600 mb (~14K' AGL) where the saturated air temperature is < -15°C ==> perfect conditions for stellar dendrites!
Sounding courtesy NOAA's Storm Prediction Center
Blizzards are truely rare birds in the eastern CONUS where winter storms usually fail the visibility duration criterion. One such event may be in the offing tonight...as evidenced by these early observations.
SPECI KTEB 262326Z 36020G30KT 1/16SM R06/1200V1800FT +TSSN BLSN FZFG OVC001 M05/M07 A2943 RMK AO2 PK WND 35031/2258 TSB20 OCNL LTGICCC P0001 $
METAR KJFK 270151Z 34034G42KT 0SM R04R/1600V2200FT SN FZFG BLSN VV001 M06/M07 A2921 RMK AO2 PK WND 35048/0140 SFC VIS 1/8 PRESFR SLP891 SNINCR 1/6 P0003 T10561072 $
METAR KEWR 270251Z 34025G35KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN VV001 M04/M06 A2926 RMK AO2 PK WND 35039/0221 TWR VIS 1/4 SLP909 SNINCR 3/14 P0018 60046 T10441056 58047 RVRNO $
METAR KHPN 270256Z 33028G45KT 0SM +SN BLSN VV001 M08/M11 A2918 RMK AO2 PK WND 34045/0250 SLP891 P0005 60013 T10831106 56058 $
Thunder snow (TSSN) reported at Tetterboro (KTEB)!
3 Intern forecasters
3 Journeyman forecasters
9 Senior forecasters including Chief Forecaster Iralibov
Great turn-out and a great storm for the season opener.
All 27 stations in play making this an excellent test of synoptic-scale snowfall forecasting ability.
All forecasts have been posted to the Contest's web site. Follow the link from Winter '10 / '11 Storm Contest > Forecasts > Storm #1.
Entries are ranked in ascending order by 'storm-total' snowfall. Please check you entry for accuracy.
Broad range of expected storm-total snowfall...
Min: 80" (Weathermbug)
Max: 354" (Roger Smith)
Consensus heavy snowfall axis (+12") between PWM - BOS - PVD - ISP - JFK - EWR - BDR - BDL - ORH - CON - PWM.
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Friday, December 24, 2010
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010
VALID DEC 24/1200 UTC THRU DEC 28/0000 UTC
INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY
RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF.
THUS...THE SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITH THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY...WITH THE FINAL OUTCOME MOST BELIEVED TO LIE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH ALL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN/GEFS MEAN (EXCEPT NOT
THE 12Z VERSION)/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO CONSIDERED USEFUL TO
ADDRESS THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY.
THIS APPROACH DISREGARDS THE SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER AND WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE 12Z GFS REGARDING THE POWERFUL LOW TRACKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z NAM WHICH LIES NEAR THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW.
GooFuS hands the reins over to a strong 100kt digging short-wave in the northern stream SAT afternoon...a significant change from early projections where the main energy was contained in the southern stream. Coupled-jet streak configuration noted around mid-day SUN. Could be a notable event should the atmopsphere decide to read from this script.
Contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.
Deadline: 10:30 PM EST SAT...25-DEC-10
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST SUN...26-DEC-10
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST MON...27-DEC-10
Enter your forecast at the Contest web site here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
If you are issuing your first forecast this year...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
If you want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued...please let me know @ newx at newx-forecasts dot com.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Last signal failed to pan-out. Probability a long-shot given the poor odds for warmings with QBO in its positive / west phase....except when sunspot activity is high.
ECMWF hinting again at a break in the polar vortex (PV) last next week.
Note 1) the PV's pending split with separate circulation developing over the pole / central Russia and 2) the yellow area north-west of the Hudson Bay. The yellow indicates warmer temperature at 100 mb which implies a very cold troposphere. The slug of warm stratospheric air originated --- and is usually found -- over Siberia.
Individual forecasts on the Contest web site here.
Recent EC projections for a late weekend storm have been slower and stronger than GooFUS. Today's 12z GooFUS is now coming in line with the EC solutions such that the season's 1st contest-worthy storm may be in the offing come SUN.
A 'Call for Forecasts' is possible FRI...with an entry deadline of 10:30 PM EST...SAT 25-DEC-10.
Catalog: MR Teaser
Monday, December 6, 2010
Extended-range progs from the ECMWF continue to suggest a warming event may be in the offing come mid-DEC...foretelling a cold start to 2011 as the bottom of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) falls out.
Note the forecast of two distinct hi-latitude cyclonic circulation centers at 100 mb...which could be in the process of ingesting the hi-amplitude tropospheric ridges positioned currently over the north Atlantic and the Bering Sea.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Deadline: WED...15-DEC-10 @ 11:59 PM EST
Visit the Contest's website to enter your forecast.
Follow the link from 'Enter Season-total Forecast.'
As always...there are NO costs...fees...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.
NE.Wx's annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is the absolute best...biggest...and probably ONLY chance to be recognized for your long-range forecasting acumen; a recognition you so richly deserve.
Not only that...but if you actually win the Contest...you get a complementary copy of "New England Weather...New England Climate" by Gregory Zielinski and Barry Keim delivered right to your front door.
What other fookin'incentive could you possibly want to enter the Contest?
How about F-R-E-E shipping?
Forecast element: sum-total season snowfall @ each station
Forecast period: 01-DEC-10 through 31-MAR-11
Verification: NWS preliminary climate reports (CLM or F6)
Error statistic: total absolute error [Σ abs(forecast - observed)]
Entry deadline: WED...15-DEC-10 @ 11:59 PM EST
The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is Herb @ MAWS.
Last year's 'Season-total' forecast summary...verification...and final results ==> here.
The Contest...as always...is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astro-meteorologists...and other classes of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusians; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars or lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...AmericanWx...or USWxForums...including energy sectarians and meteorologists.
Trolls...goats...hat3-lsiters...and psests need not apply.