CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED...09-APR-14 @ 10:20 PM EDT

Winter '13 / '14 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

Sincere thanks to Mr. Donald Rosenfeld for providing technical support and web hosting services to the NEWxSFC/s web site again this year.

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15th Annual 'Regular Season'

Contest will remain open for another week.
GFS has been flirting with a last gasp event mid-month.

- Storm #9
Synoptiscope in VCP32

- Interim Standings here (as of Storm #8)
- Forecaster 'storm' summary' data here

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13th Annual 'Season-total'

- FINAL results here


Saturday, March 10, 2012

Winter '11 / '12 - Meteorological Winter - Month Three

CAR alone enjoyed a 'normal' snowfall this winter.  No other station came even close to normal.

March is the last month for the 'season-total' snowfall forecast contest.  Latest round of long range progs hold little hope for a late rally.



Climo columns are the summed monthly totals for DEC...JAN...and FEB.


Teleconnections for FEB (top) and meteorological winter (bottom).

Saturday, March 3, 2012

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Final Results

Springfield MA
1st Place - donsutherland1
SUMSQ: 76.05
SUMSQ Z: -1.079
STP: 6.35 (4)
TAE: 20.75 (1)
AAE: 1.60 (1)

2nd Place - Brad Yehl
SUMSQ: 109.66
SUMSQ Z: -0.651
STP: 18.90 (9)
TAE: 26.50 (2)
AAE: 2.04 (5)

3rd Place - TQ
SUMSQ: 117.34
SUMSQ Z: -0.553
STP: 8.05 (6)
TAE: 30.95 (4)
AAE: 2.06 (6)

Honorable mention - ilibov
SUMSQ: 125.21
SUMSQ Z: -0.453
STP: 9.20 (7)
TAE: 33.00 (7)
AAE: 1.74 (2)
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SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

Verified forecasts and storm summary at the Contest/s web site.

Friday, March 2, 2012

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Wednesday and Thursday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS...as of 4 PM Friday.

Based on PNSBOX and NOHRSC...no evidence for any accumulation at HYA.  ORH value came from PNSBOX b/c no report was available from climate bulletins.   ORH STP may be revised if new data become available.

Several stations in the data table do not have SN:H2O reported b/c their liquid totals included mixed precipitation.

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Four new daily records.
WED...29-FEB-12
BDL - 4.4" (4.4"; 2008)
ALB - 4" (0.8"; 2008)
ORH - 4" (3.1"; 1968)

THU...01-MAR-12
PWM - 13" (9.3"; 2005)

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Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary Saturday evening.

Thursday, March 1, 2012