CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED...26-NOV-14 @ 11:15 AM EST

Winter '14 / '15 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

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16th Annual 'Regular Season'
STORM #1:
Deadline for entries has passed.
RAW forecasts here.
Forecasts here

STORM #2
Synoptiscope in VCP32

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14th Annual 'Season-total'
Call for Forecasts!
Deadline 11:59 PM EST SUN 30-NOV-14
Details here
.

Saturday, March 23, 2013

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #7: Call for Forecasts

UPDATE
Call for Forecasts - CANCELLED

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(Originally posted 3/22/13 @ 3:08 PM EDT)

SW Harbor...ME
28-JAN-40
Today/s 12z NAM and GEM-GLB argue for a contest-worthy storm Sunday evening.
GFS not so much.

Would hate to miss a late season opportunity...especially for the snow starved M-A...so a call goes out for forecasts.

The contest for Storm #7 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT SAT...23-MAR-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EDT SUN...24-MAR-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings 4



Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in this season/s third Interim Standings.

SUMSQ errors for each contest storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged...to compute the standings.  Lower (higher) average Z-scores indicate more (less) skillful forecasts.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. More or less the same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score(s) before the final grade is computed.

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Complete table of Interim stats by Forecaster at the Contest/s web site here.
Forecaster summary storm data set here.

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: Final Results

Composite Reflectivity
Mid-afternoon 19-MAR-13

1st - Donald Rosenfeld
SUMSQ:47.02
SUMSQ Z:-0.609
STP:10.90 (6)
TAE:23.70 (1)
AAE:0.99 (1)
2nd - iralibov
SUMSQ:55.26
SUMSQ Z:-0.537
STP:8.80 (4)
TAE:28.50 (3)
AAE:1.14 (3)
3rd - donsutherland1
SUMSQ:56.68
SUMSQ Z:-0.524
STP:7.30 (1)
TAE:29.70 (4)
AAE:1.24 (5)
HM - snowman
SUMSQ:58.96
SUMSQ Z:-0.504
STP:14.40 (8)
TAE:26.60 (2)
AAE:1.06 (2)


SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #6 here.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: Preliminary Verification



Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Monday through Wednesday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

Five new daily records.

TUE....19-MAR-13
CON - 11" (3.9"; 1971)
BTV - 8.9" (2.3"; 1928)
PWM - 8.7" (4.7"; 1971)
BGR - 7.7" (5"; 1987)
ORH - 7.7" (7"; 1956)

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Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

The Preliminary Verifications are usually posted ~24 hours before the forecasts are verified and final results are posted.  Circumstances prevent me from closing out Contest #6 tomorrow evening; therefore...the verified forecasts and final results will posted late this evening.

The alternative is to wait until Saturday evening.
I would rather NEWxSFC Forecasters not wait that long to find out how well their forecasts verified.

Monday, March 18, 2013

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: The Forecasts

Rookie 2
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 9
TOT 13


Forecasts are ranked by STP.
309 station forecasts.

RED - 75th percentile and above
BLUE - 25th percentile and below

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Heavy snow axis from BTV-CAR-BGR-PWM-CON-ORH-BGM-ALB-BTV.

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AO once again in the tank.
NAO with one toe in the water.
PNA MIA.

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast has been posted on the Contest/s web site.

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: RAW Forecasts

RAW forecasts here.

Winter '12 / '13 - 12th Annual 'Season-Total' Forecast Contest: FEB Totals

FEB/s snowfall totals were smokin'hot with 12 stations above normal.
New monthly record set at BDR.


As of the end of FEB...season-total snowfall to date (D-J-F) over the entire forecast area was 4% above normal.

DEC and JAN monthly totals here.

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GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: Call for Forecasts

Notwithstanding the Snowmen Prophets of Doom...another contest-worthy storm may just be in the making before this winter comes to a close.

Main event awaits Tuesday; however...call is going out early to capture snows across the M-A.

The contest for Storm #6 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT SUN...17-MAR-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EDT MON...18-MAR-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

---
Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Monday, March 11, 2013

Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings 3



Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in this season/s third Interim Standings.

SUMSQ errors for each contest storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged...to compute the standings.  Lower (higher) average Z-scores indicate more (less) skillful forecasts.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. More or less the same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score(s) before the final grade is computed.

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Complete table of Interim stats by Forecaster at the Contest/s web site here.
Forecaster summary storm data set here.

Sunday, March 10, 2013

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: Final Results


1st - dryslot
SUMSQ:459.50 
SUMSQ Z:-1.539 
STP:43.50 (9)
TAE:64.50 (1)
AAE:2.58 (1)
2nd - RyanKrimm
SUMSQ:473.23 
SUMSQ Z:-1.472 
STP:40.00 (8)
TAE:92.60 (5)
AAE:3.70 (6)
3rd - donsutherland1
SUMSQ:528.65 
SUMSQ Z:-1.200 
STP:16.70 (3)
TAE:92.80 (6)
AAE:3.57 (4)
HM - Donald Rosenfeld
SUMSQ:577.19 
SUMSQ Z:-0.962 
STP:9.50 (1)
TAE:87.60 (3)
AAE:3.50 (3)


SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank
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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #5 at the Contest/s web site.

Saturday, March 9, 2013

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: Preliminary Verification



Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Tuesday through Friday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

HYA STP estimate based on the gradient between Marston MIlls (3") and Centerville (1.5") per PNSBOX.

Six new daily records.
WED...06-MAR-13
IAD - 3.3" (0.2"; 1989)

THU...07-MAR-13
ISP - 2" (1"; 1999)

FRI...08-MAR-13
ORH - 14.9" (9"; 1941)
BOS - 10.5" (8"; 1941)
BDR - 9" (3.5"; 2005)
ALB - 6.5" (6.2"; 2005)

Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary Sunday evening.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5 - The Forecasts!

Rookie 3
Intern 1
Journey 0
Senior 9
TOT 13


NEWxSFC welcomes its newest Rookie...RyanKrimm.
Good luck to all.

Entries ranked by STP.
309 station forecasts.


Consensus for heavy snow (+6") from EWR-BWI-IAD and ORH.
Plowable snows from BGR-PWN-CON-BOS-BDL-JFK-ABE-MDT-PHL.


NAO finally shows up!

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast has been posted on the Contest/s web page.

Monday, March 4, 2013

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: RAW Forecasts

Red Cross - BOS
1935

RAW forecasts posted to NEWx/s GoogleGroup page here.

Sunday, March 3, 2013

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: Call for Forecasts! Redux

Snowfall
-- liquid equivalent in mm --
Progs have been teasing a late season M-A event for days featuring a near-ideal synoptic set-up of a arctic HIGH pressure of moderate strength over eastern Canada/s Maritime provinces and northern New England and a slowly moving...quick deepening LOW off the NC coast.

The storm has come into better focus with the expected onset of frozen precipitation ~48 hours away at post-time.  SUN/s 12z runs shifted the max snowfall action center from SW VA and smack dab into the Contest/s M-A forecast area.

Areas on the map inside the light green (10-15 mm) indicate the GFS forecast for at least 4" of snow assuming 10:1 frozen-to-melt water ratio.

HPC/s late afternoon charts restrict contest-worthy snows to the mountainous regions of WV...VA..and MD...largely a result of a 'major compromise' among competing solutions.

The contest for Storm #5 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST MON...04-MAR-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM TUE...05-MAR-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

---
Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.