CONTEST STATUS - Updated: THU ... 31-OCT-19 @ 12:16 PM EDT

Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Contest starts once the flakes start a'flyin'

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19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Deadline for entries: 11:59 PM EST ... SAT ... 30-NOV-19
Verification period: 01-DEC-19 through 31-MAR-20
Details here

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Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
20th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results HERE
Forecaster verification table HERE

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Winter '18 / '19 - 20th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

After five snow storm forecasting contests ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least FOUR forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).
Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).


Monday, April 8, 2019

Winter '18 / '19 - 18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

UPDATE (08-APR-19)
Forecaster verification table at the Contest web site (direct link)
Season-total snowfall v period-or-record normal trend chart

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Original post:  (07-APR-19 @ 8:30 PM EDT)

Congratulations to Donald Rosenfeld for his 1st Place finish.
Donald also placed first in '05 / '06 and '12 / '13.

Forecasters ranked by their total absolute error.



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Season-total snowfall from all stations (784") came in 14% below the period-of-record normal (914").
Winter '18 / '19 ranks 11th among other Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.

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Apologies for the abbreviated recap.
Will add to the pile a little at a time this week including each forecaster's station-by-station verification.

Winter '18 / '19 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Preliminary STP Verification

UPDATE (08-APR-19 @ 11:55 AM EDT)
Added links to monthly snowfall totals

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Original post (06-APR-19 @ 6:42 PM EDT)

Preliminary sum-total season snowfalls for the verification period 01-DEC-18 though 31-MAR-19 collected from monthly climate bulletins (CLMxxx; CXUS51 ... CXUS52).

Seven forecast stations (28% of all stations) with bonus season-total snowfalls [more than Period-Of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N)].

Rank ordered descending by percent of P-O-R-N.

Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Interquartile range (< 75th & > 25th percentiles)
Red ==> 25th percentile

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL results expected NLT SUN evening.

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Winter '18 / '19 monthly snow totals
DEC:  http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2019/01/winter-18-19-season-total-snowfall.html
JAN:  http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2019/02/winter-18-19-season-total-snowfall.html
FEB:  http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2019/03/winter-18-19-season-total-snowfall.html
MAR:  http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2019/04/winter-18-19-season-total-snowfall.html

Saturday, April 6, 2019

Winter '18 / '19 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

MAR-19 snowfall summary by Contest forecast station.
Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).


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Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Interquartile range (< 75th & > 25th percentiles)
Red ==> 25th percentile

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MAR Forecast Station Highlights
Eleven stations above P-O-R-N
MA: 5
NE:  6

BDR ... NYC ... ABE ... MDT
At least 200% of monthly P-O-R-N

Biggest losers
Observed v P-O-R-N (% P-O-R-N)
RDU:  0" v 1.0"
ORH:  0" v 0.9"
RIC:  0" v 2.2"
SBY:  T v 1.8" (3%)
DCA:  0.3" v 2.1" (14%)