tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-73810883968398412392024-03-14T09:12:48.112-04:00NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast ContestsSnowfall forecasting contests for 27 stations across New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions ... since 1999TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.comBlogger1340125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-38990271277197718152024-03-07T19:41:00.001-05:002024-03-07T19:49:36.059-05:00Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Snowfall TotalsDCAPR-1924FEB-24 snowfall summary by forecast station.Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).Green ==> 4th quartileWhite ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)Red ==> 1st quartile'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but not measurable)---FEB Forecast Station Highlights3 of 25 stations (12%) TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-10105548603192452712024-03-05T11:32:00.003-05:002024-03-07T19:43:19.789-05:00Contest StatusPHL - Broad and Chestnutearly 1930sWinter '23 / '24NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contests 25th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest UPDATE: 7:30 PM THU ... 15-FEB-24 Snow Storm #3Synoptiscope in VCP32 Snow Storm #2FINAL Results and Storm Summary hereSnow Storm #1:FINAL Results and Storm Summary here---Deadline for entries: typically ~24 hours before the leading TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-86978126475121592472024-02-15T18:56:00.001-05:002024-02-15T18:56:23.309-05:00Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #2: FINAL Results and Storm SummaryMA - Rte 128FEB-1978Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.SUMSQ: sum of square error (")SUMSQ Z: Z-scoreSTP: storm total precipitation error (")TAE: total absolute error (")AAE: average absolute error (")(#): category rank---Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-88449423330889237182024-02-14T20:17:00.007-05:002024-03-14T09:12:16.012-04:00Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #2: STP Verification - PreliminaryNYC - Central ParkWest Historic District (20-MAR-56)Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for TUE based on reporting from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins issued by NWS.Excellent coverage and reporting.---HYASTP derived by applying an inverse distance weighting scheme to BOSPNS vicinity reports from Barnstable county.Snow-to-liquid ratios (SLR) less than TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-64361675734003680402024-02-13T15:08:00.002-05:002024-02-13T15:12:36.834-05:00Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #2: The Forecasts!NYC (02-FEB-69)Rookie 2 Intern - Journey - Senior 14 GOVT 1 PWSP 1 TOT 18 Rejected forecasts: 1 (unreasonable values)---Forecaster table ranked by ascending storm-total precipitation (STP).BLUE ==> 1st quartileRED ==> 4th quartileWHITE and GREY TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-77690732056233663532024-02-12T22:19:00.000-05:002024-02-12T22:19:09.945-05:00Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #2: RAW ForecastsClick through on Read more >> to see forecasts.Entry No. 1954Forecaster = TheSnowman1Time = 2/11/2024 4:14:21 PMCAR = 0BGR = 2PWM = 3CON = 4BTV = 0BOS = 10HYA = 6ORH = 13PVD = 8BDR = 8BDL = 11ALB = 4BGM = 8ISP = 6JFK = 5ABE = 3MDT = 2PHL = 3ACY = 5EWR = 7BWI = 0IAD = 0DCA = 0SBY = 0RIC = 0ORF = 0RDU = 0Comments = ----End of Entry----Entry No. 1955Forecaster = WEATHER WIZARDTime = 2/11/2024 TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-40954274794080556462024-02-11T12:04:00.003-05:002024-02-12T22:19:55.777-05:00Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #2: Call for Forecasts!Lincoln Memorial (1935)Contest-worthy snowfall expected on TUE along the NW edge of a migrating LOW/s moisture-rich precipitation shield.- Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/- Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'---Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfallDeadline for entries: 10 PM EST ... MON TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-16475700446217121812024-02-02T19:46:00.003-05:002024-02-02T22:50:13.155-05:00Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Snowfall TotalsNYC - Staten Island12-DEC-60JAN-24 snowfall summary by forecast station.Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).Green ==> 4th quartileWhite ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)Red ==> 1st quartile'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable)---JAN Forecast Station Highlights16 of 25 TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-70777328786406764332024-01-09T21:07:00.002-05:002024-01-21T18:45:31.249-05:00Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: FINAL Results and Storm SummaryPHLEast River Drive - Fairmount ParkComplete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.SUMSQ: sum of square error (")SUMSQ Z: Z-scoreSTP: storm total precipitation error (")TAE: total absolute error (")AAE: average absolute error (")(#): category rank---Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for TopTQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-51774414505383821572024-01-08T18:29:00.031-05:002024-02-12T22:21:22.474-05:00 Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: STP Verification - PreliminaryBOS - Congress and Water Streets13-APR-33Preliminary verification of
storm-total snowfalls from SAT and SUN based on reporting from CDUS41
(CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins issued by NWS.Excellent coverage and reporting.HYADerived from PNS vicinity report carried by BOS ... inspection of NOHRSC digital snowfall plot ... and METARs.Snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) less thanTQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-36363003683016302192024-01-06T13:46:00.002-05:002024-01-06T13:54:44.695-05:00Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: The Forecasts!NYC - 8th Ave.08-Jan-25Rookie 1 Intern - Journey 1 Senior 16 GOVT 1 PWSP 1 TOT 20 Forecaster table ranked by ascending storm-total precipitation (STP).BLUE ==> 1st quartileRED ==> 4th quartileWHITE and GREY STP cells TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-17950246204948078362024-01-05T22:14:00.001-05:002024-01-05T22:14:18.101-05:00Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: RAW ForecastsClick "Read more >>" to view.Entry No. 1931Forecaster = StormOfCornTime = 1/4/2024 7:32:46 PMCAR = 0BGR = 0PWM = 0CON = 0BTV = 0BOS = 0HYA = 0ORH = 0PVD = 0BDR = 0BDL = 0ALB = 0BGM = 0ISP = 0JFK = 0ABE = 0MDT = 0PHL = 0ACY = 0EWR = 0BWI = 0IAD = 0DCA = 0SBY = 0RIC = 0ORF = 0RDU = 0Comments = ----End of Entry----Entry No. 1932Forecaster = StormOfCornTime = 1/4/2024 7:38:36 PMCAR = 0BGR = TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-87102393838030517332024-01-05T22:02:00.002-05:002024-02-02T20:41:13.582-05:00Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Snowfall TotalsSmithstonian1922DEC-23 snowfall summary by forecast station.Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).Green ==> 4th quartileWhite ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)Red ==> 1st quartile'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable).---DEC Forecast Station Highlights NoneBiggest LosersNot TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-12174959804055973362024-01-04T18:12:00.001-05:002024-01-05T22:06:56.136-05:00Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: Call for Forecasts!PHLWissahickon Drive (Lincoln Drive) c.1849Long-awaited inaugural snow storm for our 25th annual NEWxSFC has finally come a'calling. Whether it's a Miller-A or a Miller-B matters not with more than enough stations in play for a contest-worthy event.- Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/- Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-68804848506572144392023-12-11T18:57:00.005-05:002023-12-14T22:50:40.177-05:00Winter '23 / '24 - 23rd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: The Forecasts!NYC - Rockefeller Plaza26-DEC-47All forecasts at Contest/s web site. (direct link to forecast data table here). ---Welcome and Good Luck to All đđđSenior NEWxSFC forecaster snowman ... having made the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '22 / '23 ... is back this year to defend his 'Chief Season-total Forecaster' title.Forecasters also compete against the Period-of-Record Normal (TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-25594212980720402922023-11-30T19:35:00.003-05:002023-12-11T17:47:49.709-05:00Winter '23 / '24 - 23rd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Call for Forecasts!NEWxSFC/sDirector of Season-total Snowfall Forecasting NEWxSFC runs the longest continuously held snowfall forecasting contests on the World Wide Web.Our 23nd annual âseason-total' snowfall forecast contest is a great opportunity to demonstrate your long-range forecasting acumen ... and if you get lucky ... win some books about meteorology ... too.And it's really easy.All you have to do is TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-25612860116675097782023-04-08T18:52:00.005-04:002023-12-01T20:31:46.263-05:00Winter '22 / '23 - 24th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL ResultsAfter FOUR contest-worthy snow storms ... under the âtwo-thirdsâ rule ⌠forecasters who entered at least THREE forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).---Best Forecasts by Storm (lowest SUMSQ Error Z-Scores)---Top 10 Forecasts - All TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-47909631665271406062023-04-05T17:02:00.004-04:002023-12-01T20:33:32.267-05:00Winter '22 / '23 - 22nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL ResultsNYC ... 5th Ave.Alfred Stieglitz.(1892)Congratulations to snowman for issuing the best season-total snowfall forecast for Winter '22 / '23.Complete forecaster verification table at the Contest web site.http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_24/season-total/season_total_verification_2223.htmForecasters ranked ascending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE).BLUE ==> 1st QuartileWHITE ==> TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-20124468597721090922023-04-04T19:14:00.004-04:002023-04-06T09:33:19.869-04:00Winter '22 / '23 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Snowfall TotalsWoodstock ... VT (c.1890)CORR: snowfall at CON should be 20.4"Departure: 8.6"%MAR: 173%MAR-23 snowfall summary by forecast station.Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).Green ==> 4th quartileWhite ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)Red ==> 1st quartile'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-70184222716715087822023-03-21T19:17:00.004-04:002023-03-21T19:32:51.370-04:00 Winter '22 / '23 - Regular Season: Interim Standings #2After 4 contest-worthy snow storms ... under the âtwo-thirdsâ rule ⌠forecasters who have
entered at least 3 forecasts are included in Interim Standings #2.Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site (direct link)Forecaster statistics for Winter '22 / '23 contest snow storms (direct link) ---SUMSQ errors for each Contest snow storm are normalized (i.e., TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-92159622332631985272023-03-18T20:28:00.000-04:002023-03-18T20:28:47.332-04:00Winter '22 / '23 - Snow Storm #4: FINAL Results and Storm SummaryBrattleboro ... VT (c.1890)Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.SUMSQ: sum of square error (")SUMSQ Z: Z-scoreSTP: storm total precipitation error (")TAE: total absolute error (")AAE: average absolute error (")(#): category rank---Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-92150447785154503842023-03-16T20:16:00.004-04:002023-03-22T19:52:34.034-04:00Winter '22 / '23 - Snow Storm #4: Preliminary STP VerificationNYC - Inwood204th and Sherman Ave (MAR-1917)CON and BDR have yet to issue their daily snowfall reports for 3/14 and 3/15. A review of the METARs suggests little if any additional snowfall was measured so will proceed with the preliminary verification assigning Trace amounts to those stations where CF6 and CLI report missing values.---Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for MONTQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-64056799642381532092023-03-13T20:47:00.001-04:002023-03-13T20:53:16.658-04:00Winter '22 / '23 - Snow Storm #4: The Forecasts!Passiac FallsNJRookie 1 Intern - Journey - Senior 10 GOVT 1 PWSP 1 TOT 13 Forecaster table ranked ascending by storm-total precipitation (STP)BLUE ==> 1st quartileRED ==> 4th quartileWHITE and GREY STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile--TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-2085420619257607632023-03-13T19:32:00.001-04:002023-03-13T19:46:48.073-04:00Winter '22 / '23 - Regular Season: Interim Standings #1St Johns ChurchBridgeport ... CTAfter 3 contest-worthy
snow storms ... under the âtwo-thirdsâ rule ⌠forecasters who have
entered at least 2 forecasts are included in Interim Standings #1.Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site (direct link)Forecaster statistics for Winter '22 / '23 contest snow storms (direct link) ---SUMSQ errors for each Contest snow TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7381088396839841239.post-61527226702913300882023-03-12T22:24:00.006-04:002023-03-12T22:26:24.244-04:00Winter '22 / '23 - Snow Storm #4: RAW ForecastsClick through the "Read more >>>" link to view the RAW forecasts.Entry No. 1911Forecaster = snowmanTime = 3/12/2023 2:11:40 PMCAR = 14.2BGR = 12.3PWM = 11CON = 12BTV = 12.5BOS = 11HYA = 9ORH = 12PVD = 8.5BDR = 6BDL = 9ALB = 13BGM = 9.5ISP = 7.5JFK = 8ABE = 3MDT = 3PHL = 3.5ACY = 3EWR = 4.5BWI = .5IAD = 1.5DCA = .5SBY = 0RIC = 0ORF = 0RDU = 0Comments = ----End of Entry----Entry No. TQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12460905784186059023noreply@blogger.com2