NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contests

Winter '11 / '12 - VCP32 - Commiting Suicide

2012-01-26T16:44:00.000-05:00

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #1 - Final Results

2012-01-23T18:37:00.001-05:00

herb@maws SUMSQ:35.15 SUMSQ Z:-1.012 STP:5.80 (2) TAE:19.60 (1) AAE:0.82 (1) donsutherland1 SUMSQ:39.49 SUMSQ Z:-0.900 STP:11.55 (4) TAE:19.75 (2) AAE:0.82 (2) Brad Yehl SUMSQ:45.16 SUMSQ Z:-0.752 STP:1.85 (1) TAE:23.65 (3) AAE:0.99 (3) weatherT SUMSQ:61.20 SUMSQ Z:-0.336 STP:13.29 (5) TAE:27.49 (5) AAE:1.15 (5) SUMSQ: sum of square errors STP: storm-total precipitation error TAE: total

Winter '11 / '12 - Outlooks

2012-01-22T18:05:00.005-05:00

From CPC (0.5 month lead)... La Nina continuing to hold sway over the forecast area for the last month of meteorological winter. More winter Outlooks after the jump. --- From the Bill Fortier writing for the Worcester TELEGRAM & GAZETTE... "The consensus among forecasters is that this winter won’t be as severe ..." Fortier quoting weather historian and long-range weather forecaster Joseph

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #1 - Preliminary Verification

2012-01-22T12:46:00.002-05:00

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Saturday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS...as of noon Sunday. The storm-total snowfall for HYA is an estimate derived from vicinity reports in Barnstable county carried in the PNSBOX bulletin. Several stations in the data table do not have SN:H2O reported b/c their liquid totals included mixed precipitation. --- Two new daily records. Saturday...21-JAN-12

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #1 - The Forecasts

2012-01-21T14:50:00.006-05:00

Welcome back everyone. The kick-off event was a l-o-n-g time coming. Here/s hoping it/s not the last! Eight entries. 6 Senior forecasters...including NEWxSFC/s Chief forecaster donsutherland1 1 Journeyman 1 Intern Congratulations to... WeatherT on being promoted to Senior forecaster Roger Smith on being promoted to Journeyman forecaster Brad Yehl on being promoted to Intern forecaster NEWxSFC

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #1 - Call for Forecasts

2012-01-19T18:47:00.005-05:00

c.1890 Today/s 12z progs indicating a lot of forecast stations in the mid-Atlantic and southern New England are in line to get snowed upon but there may not be all that much of it. A weak frontal wave rising out of the OH-TN river valley early Saturday morning will throw Atlantic moisture atop an arctic air mass parked over SE Canada. Looks to be a borderline nuisance event but at this point

Winter '11 / '12 - Season Opener?

2012-01-17T19:41:00.002-05:00

GooFuS has been busy pumping out promising progs with shiny stellar dendrites dangling over the forecast area this weekend for what could turn out to be this winter/s season opener contest-worthy snow storm. The storm is forecast to organize as a frontal wave over the lower MS river valley then reaches the east coast along the mid-Atlantic positioned below a weak but building arctic HIGH over

Winter '11 / '12 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming Watch - Update 6

2012-01-15T21:44:00.000-05:00

The minor warming criterion (25°K increase over seven days at any level in the winter hemisphere) has almost reached the 30 mb level. A mere two or three degrees to go. Major warming criteria is on the verge of being breached. A major warming is defined as "...westerly winds at 60°N and 10 mb...become easterly [...]. A complete disruption of the polar vortex is observed and the vortex will

Winter '11 / '12 - Arctic Oscillation - On the Cusp

2012-01-15T17:06:00.003-05:00

NYC - East 46th St. near 2nd Ave. 16-JAN-65 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) at winter's mid-point remains pegged in a persistently positive mode. Save for a few brief flirtations with its alter ego...the AO has been above zero for 41 days since the start of meteorological winter (01-DEC) 46 days ago. The polar vortex (PV) has been wicked strong until recently when it weaken slightly during the

Winter '11 / '12 - North Atlantic Oscillation - About Face

2012-01-12T10:52:00.003-05:00

NAO dips below zero for the time in 55 days (-0.082 on 17-NOV-11). Question now is will it last and if it does...how strong will it be? Current GooFuS and its ensemble forecasts hold out little hope... Arctic Oscillation (AO) forecasts are another...more promising story... For many NEWxSFC forecast stations...a negative AO plays a bigger role than a negative NAO for contest-worthy storms.

Winter '11 / '12 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming Watch - Update 5

2012-01-10T19:59:00.000-05:00

The initial minor warming event @10 mb...which began 25-DEC-11...is fading as a second warming gets underway on the opposite side of the globe (red shading lower left quadrant). Note the weakening of the mean zonal wind in the upper 10 mb centered around 01-JAN-12 (upper right corner) which reflects dissipation of the initial minor warming event. Elsewhere in the Ignorosphere...temperatures

Winter '11 / '12 - VCP32 - Need Nine More of These

2012-01-09T22:18:00.002-05:00

Winter '11 / '12 - Eurasia Snow Cover - December

2012-01-06T20:55:00.005-05:00

The latest monthly data from the Rutgers Snow Lab shows the observed areal snow cover over Eurasia was -- yawn -- average during December after being at or quite close to one standard deviation above the mean the past two years. The month's ~26,642,000 km² coverage ranked 26th in the 46-year period of record (1966 - 2011) which is slightly less than the median December coverage of ~26,786,000

Winter '11 / '12 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming Watch - Update 4

2012-01-05T16:39:00.014-05:00

Tervetuloa Sääbriefing! Hi-latitude 10 mb temperature well above average. These warm temperatures extend to near 30 mb.Source: CPC/s Stratosphere: Global Temperature Time Series NWP models continue the forecast trend for a significant weakening of the polar vortex (PV) and a bold reversal @D+10. The blue area above 10 mb between 50°N to 90°N latitude (upper right corner) depicts a mean

Winter '11 / '12 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming Watch - Update 3

2012-01-04T19:05:00.005-05:00

The 'minor' warming event -- indicated by areas shaded in red -- having started on 25-DEC-11...has gained significant latitude as it propagated east from ~140°E longitude over Asia to a position near 80°W latitude over NOAM. The temperature @10 mb over the North Pole has risen from -80°C in mid-DEC to almost -50°C...as of 02-JAN-12. The lower stratosphere/s extension of the polar vortex (PV) @

Winter '11 / '12 - Arctic Oscillation and Chi Square

2012-01-03T19:22:00.018-05:00

Geo. Washington...Valley Forge...PA (1928) Wes Junker...of the WaPo/s Capital Weather Gang blog...crafted an interesting post last month about January/s temperature and precipitation prospects. He included a rough analysis on the likelihood of December/s persistently positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) carrying over through January. The article concluded the chances were high for such an outcome

Winter '11 / '12 - Meteorological Winter - Month One

2012-01-01T18:37:00.006-05:00

One down. Two to go...altho the Contest does run until the storms stop -- assuming they do get started. As bad as it/s been for areal snow cover over the forecast area so far this winter...DEC-03 was worse with DEC-06 a close second. December/s end-of-month snow cover between 2002 (upper left panel) and 2011 (lower right panel). Images courtesy NOHRSC. --- Disappointed snow crows blame the

Winter '11 / '12 - Arctic Oscillation - Day 30

2011-12-30T10:44:00.007-05:00

500 mb height anomalies associated with three states of the Arctic Oscillation Thirty days into the season...the Arctic Oscillation (AO) remains well above zero despite a weakening polar vortex (PV) and hi-latitude easterly winds. The 500 mb height anomalies (below right) have looked more like the top chart which has kept arctic cold away from the mid-latitudes. The ECMWF continues to depict

Winter '11 / '12 - Coastal Teaser #1

2011-12-27T15:22:00.004-05:00

Bit of a disagreement between us and them about next Wednesday/s weather along the eastern CONUS... GFS: 27-DEC 12z VT: 04-JAN-12 12z ECMWF: 27-DEC 12z VT: 04-JAN-12 12z Both models were in fair agreement in the short range but then diverged as the ECMWF deepened a GOM Low which popped a high amplitude PNA-type ridge. OTOH...GFS did not close the door to the flood of PAC air into the

Winter '11 / '12 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming Watch - Update 2

2011-12-27T10:04:00.005-05:00

It's official! A 'minor' stratospheric warming...no longer a figment of NWP/s imagination...was observed at 10 mb by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) for the seven-day period ending 25-DEC-11. A minor warming event is defined as an observed 25°C temperature increase over "... a week or less at any stratospheric level in any area of winter time hemisphere. The polar vortex is not broken

Winter '11 / '12 - Late December Snow

2011-12-26T10:02:00.001-05:00

Another storm manages to thread the needle and slip by the forecast stations. This winter is only the second season where NEWxSFC did not have a contest-worthy storm in December. Every winter... with the notable exception of '06 / '07...had contest storms during January...so the odds are favorable for this season. Small glimmers of hope have been showing up recently in the extended range...

Winter '11 / '12 - VCP32 - The Day After Christmas

2011-12-23T23:17:00.000-05:00

Winter '11 / '12 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming Watch

2011-12-22T10:45:00.005-05:00

A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event appears to be getting underway this week. NWP output from the ECMWF continues to show an expectation for significant weakening of the stratosphere's polar vortex (PV) by year's end. The PV's west winds...having reached a maximum speed ~210 kts (110 m/s) a few days ago...are forecast to fall off a fookin'cliff and decrease to ~50 kts (25 m/s) by the

Winter '11 / '12 - 1st Quarter: Oh So Slow Start

2011-12-21T18:17:00.018-05:00

E. 165th St - Bronx...NY 23-DEC-59 Ist quarter of MET-winter will apparently come quietly to a close in a few days without a single contest-worthy snow storm. Slow starting seasons aren't at all common but they have happend. The '06-'07 season didn't start until 12-FEB. Once the storms started rolling tho...they came somewhat fast and maybe a little furious with another one in late February.

Winter '11 / '12 - Arctic Oscillation - Day 20

2011-12-20T18:37:00.007-05:00

The persistantly positive state of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) may be starting to lean toward a long awaited change of sign. This three day Height-Latitude Cross Section of Zonally Averaged Zonal Wind loop shows deep-layer easterly winds blowing over the pole...a weakening polar vortex (PV)...and a strengthening sub-tropical jet (STJ)...all of which are favorable ingredients for the Arctic

Winter '11 / '12 - Arctic Oscillation - Day 15

2011-12-17T17:25:00.006-05:00

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been positive 99 out of 108 days since 01-SEP; however...there are a few signs suggesting a change for the better may be afoot. The first sign points to a weakening polar vortex... The wind speeds are currently running ~100 kt in the last few millibars @40°N and are forecast to weaken to ~45 kts at D+10. Also note the development of deep easterly flow below 100

Winter '11 / '12 - Arctic Oscillation - Near Record High - Part 2

2011-12-11T13:57:00.006-05:00

Last Sunday...the Arctic Oscillation (AO) reached a near-record high of 5.647...or did it? CPC has revised their data...without comment...for several days between 02-DEC and 08-DEC. Old data... 12/2 2.928 12/3 4.830 12/4 5.647 12/5 4.850 12/6 4.762 12/7 4.674 12/8 4.586 New data... 12/2 2.051 12/3 4.394 12/4 3.443 12/5 3.424 12/6 3.954 12/7 3.075 12/8 1.653 Despite the change...

Winter '11 / '12 - Early December Snow

2011-12-08T17:56:00.006-05:00

Yesterday/s snowfall over portions of the forecast area came courtesy of a soggy nor'easter with frozen precipitation falling from the mid-level deformartion zone along the NW edge of the comma cloud shield. These type of systems are rarely contest-worthy and this event was no exception. HPC/s 'Day 1' snow accumulation prog suggested a high decent probability for plowable snowfall along a

Winter '11 / '12 - White Christmas Probabilities

2011-12-07T16:16:00.004-05:00

Updated below White Christmas in the US is defined as 1" on-the-ground on 25-DEC. The criteria are different in other countries. The probability of an event is determined by dividing the number of times something happened by the number of time it could have happened. If there was a white Christmas five times over 20 years...the probability is 25% in any given year. This NCDC map is a little

Winter '11 / '12 - Eurasia Snow Cover - November

2011-12-06T18:52:00.002-05:00

The latest monthly data from the Rutgers Snow Lab shows the observed areal snow cover over Eurasia was more than one standard deviation above normal during November for the 2nd time in three years. It was the 5th highest coverage during the period of record (1966 - 2011). Other Novembers where the snow cover was more than one standard devaition above the long term mean occured in 2009...1993..

Winter '11 / '12 - The North Atlantic Oscillation and Sea Surface Temperatures - Part 2

2011-12-04T16:31:00.006-05:00

Hi-latitude blocking INVOF Greenland is known to be the main culprit for driving the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index below zero. The negative state of the NAO is widely held in high regard as a crucial element for the development of severe winter storms in the eastern CONUS...despite strong evidence to the contrary that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) plays a much more important role.

Winter '11 / '12 - Arctic Oscillation - Near Record High

2011-12-04T12:50:00.001-05:00

The daily AO index reached 5.647 today. It/s the 2nd highest value behind the 5.911 observed on 02-FEB-1990. NWP models show the AO in rapid decline over the short term so the record may stand. Daily CPC data here.

Winter '11 / '12 - Arctic Oscillation - Day One

2011-12-03T17:12:00.011-05:00

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) index continues to stick its thumb in the eye of east coast winter weather enthusiasts by climbing to more than three standard deviations above 'normal' in its 7-day moving average. Today...on the 1st day of meteorological winter...the AO/s daily value stands at 4.830! There are 19 other days during the AO/s period-of-record beginning in 1950 where the index has been

Winter '11 / '12 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest - Forecast Summary

2011-12-01T11:27:00.008-05:00

Updated below. Ten Nine forecasters. Welcome back veteran forecasters and welcome aboard to Rookie forecaster Chris Tingus. Blue (red) shading indicates the 25th (75th) percentile in the above table. PORN is the Period of Record Normal. Individual forecasts and summary statistics at the Contest/s web site. Consensus...as a percent of climatology...favors above (below) normal snowfall across

Winter '11 / '12 - Arctic Oscillation and Eurasia Snow Cover

2011-11-28T16:49:00.005-05:00

New research from Judah Cohen of sCast fame shows a strong correlation between the rate of change in Eurasia snow cover during October and the state of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) during the coming winter. The paper detailing the results of the study were published in the 05-NOV-11 issue of Geophysical Research Letters Vol 38. The "...develop(ment) a snow advance index (SAI) derived from

Winter '11 / '12 - Great Appalachian Storm of 1950

2011-11-24T12:04:00.010-05:00

Kevin Myatt at the Roanoke Times reminds us of a blockbuster snow storm from a Thanksgiving weekend long ago. Known at the time as 'The Storm of the Century'...Miller 'B' cyclogenesis occurred along shore of the Carolinas on the 24th...rapidly deepened (26mb / 12hrs) over the Chesapeake Bay / Delmarva on the 25th...then became trapped beneath a strong 1042 mb blocking HIGH to its north.

Winter '11 / '12 - The North Atlantic Oscillation and Sea Surface Temperatures

2011-11-22T21:59:00.012-05:00

Conventional wisdom states it's next to impossible to skillfully forecast the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) more than a week to ten days in advance. Even that's a stretch given the generally low correlation between forecast and observed conditions. The current ten-day and 14 day correlations are 0.72 and 0.55...respectively which means the forecast explains 52% and 30% of the

Winter '11 / '12 - Sunspots and The North Atlantic Oscillation

2011-11-10T10:19:00.001-05:00

From 'Bits of Science'... "Recent Nature Geoscience publication shows correlation between sunspot cycle and the AO and NAO index. This in turn influences northern hemisphere temperature distribution. Current NASA observations meanwhile show the 2008-2010 sunspot minimum has come to an end – shown NASA forecast predicts new peak around the year 2013." "Judging by solar activity a pattern of

Winter '11 / '12 - Late October Snow - NESIS

2011-11-08T18:19:00.009-05:00

NCDC has given the late October snow storm a preliminary score of 1.75 (Category 1) on the NESIS scale. This is the only October storm to have a NESIS rank. Multiple daily snowfall records were set during this event (29th - 44; 30th - 103). Many stations recorded their first ever snowfalls in October. Still others received the highest daily October snowfall in their recorded history. The

Winter '11 / '12 - Eurasia Snow Cover - October

2011-11-03T22:25:00.010-04:00

The latest monthly data from the Rutgers Snow Lab shows the observed areal snow cover over Eurasia was normal during October. The chart's orange line marks the month of October's long-term average snow cover. The dashed yellow lines are one standard deviation above or below the average. From a statistical process control (SPC) perspective...little variation above or below the mean has occurred

Winter '11 / '12 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest - Call for Forecasts!

2011-11-01T18:33:00.012-04:00

Central Park - NYC - 1958 NE.Wx's 11th annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is the absolute best...biggest...and probably ONLY chance to be recognized for your long-range forecasting acumen. All you have to do is forecast the season-total snowfall at 25 stations from RDU to CAR. Deadline: WED...30-NOV-11 @ 11:59 PM EST Visit the Contest's website to enter your forecast. Follow

Winter '11 / '12 - October Snow Cover

2011-10-30T11:51:00.033-04:00

Too bad this classic benchmark storm didn't show its hand early enough to kick-off the 13th Annual NEWxSFC. UPDATE: ABE - 6.8 Image courtesy NOHRSC

Winter '11 / '12 - Trending: The North Atlantic Oscillation

2011-10-14T19:28:00.018-04:00

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) often plays an important role in defining the character of sensible weather during east coast winters. It and its godfather the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are also two of the harder features to forecast beyond a week or ten days which leaves seasonal forecasts vulnerable to considerable error. The developing consensus for Winter '11 / '12 leans heavily on a

Winter '11 / '12 - 1st Contact

2011-10-07T23:43:00.001-04:00

Up to 9" of snow was observed earlier this week INVOF this picture taken in Snowshoe...W. Va. (map). Right next door at Hot Springs...VA (KHSP)...winter's preview was observed Monday evening... 020255Z AUTO 28016G22KT 1/4SM -SN OVC003 02/02 A2990 RMK AO2 =020235Z AUTO 27016G22KT M1/4SM SN OVC001 02/02 A2990 RMK AO2 = 020215Z AUTO 28016G21KT M1/4SM -SN OVC001 02/02 A2990 RMK AO2 = 020158Z AUTO

Winter '11 / '12 - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation : ENSO

2011-10-06T22:56:00.024-04:00

- QBO...having begun its negative phase in August...stands at -2.30 in September. QBO will remain negative and intensify throughout the upcoming winter. - ENSO consensus forecast (see Table 1) for D-J-F from the latest numerical and statistical model runs expects a neutral ENSO to 'weak' la Nina. Forecast SST Anomalies (deg C) in the Niño 3.4 Region --- Easterly QBO during la Nina favors 1) a

The North Atlantic Oscillation: New Monograph from American Geophysical Union

2011-09-17T16:17:00.001-04:00

"The Monograph is thematically organized and provides a comprehensive (multidisciplinary) overview of material (theory, observations and models) related to the NAO. There are 12 chapters, each presenting a thorough overview of a topic, and most contain new research as well. "The NAO is one of the oldest known world weather patterns, as some of the earliest descriptions of it were from seafaring

Winter '10 / '11 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest - Final Results

2011-06-25T15:16:00.001-04:00

Forecasts have been verified and posted at the web site here. Congratulations to rookie forecaster Roger Smith for placing 1st this year. Hope to see y'all back again next winter!

Winter '10 / '11 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest - Preliminary Verification

2011-04-09T17:08:00.001-04:00

Green >= 75th percentile Red <= 25th percentile Eighteen of the 24 forecast stations measured more snow than their period of record normal (PORN). All told...1,403" of snow were measured...55% more than PORN (909.8") for the months of DEC through MAR. The winter/s big winner as a percent of normal was ORF with almost three times their PORN snowfall...the bulk of which came in DEC. Other

Winter '10 / '11 - FINAL Standings

2011-04-05T18:06:00.002-04:00

After eight snow storms...the snowfall forecasting season for the Winter of '10 / '11 comes to a close. Under the 'two-thirds' rule...the best 'two out of three' Z-scores are used to compute the final standings. After Snow Storm #8...your top six Z-scores were used to calculate these standings. Data used to compute the standings are posted at the Contest web site here. Z-scores are used to

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Final Results

2011-04-04T17:52:00.000-04:00

1st - donsutherland1 SUMSQ: 49.62 SUMSQ Z: -0.638 STP: 13.76 (4) TAE: 21.64 (1) AAE: 1.08 (1) 2nd - TQ SUMSQ: 58.45 SUMSQ Z: -0.605 STP: 13.05 (2) TAE: 22.25 (2) AAE: 1.11 (2) 3rd - Donald Rosenfeld SUMSQ: 91.14 SUMSQ Z: -0.483 STP: 12.76 (1) TAE: 28.85 (3) AAE: 1.44 (3) Honorable Mention - Brad Yehl SUMSQ: 106.75 SUMSQ Z: -0.425 STP: 21.25 (5) TAE: 31.15 (4) AAE: 1.56 (4 SUMSQ: sum

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Preliminary Verification

2011-04-03T11:46:00.000-04:00

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Friday and Saturday from CDUS41 and CXUS51...as of 9 AM Sunday. Some stations in the data table do not have SN:H2O reported b/c their totals included mixed precipitation. --- Two daily records. SAT...01-Mar-11 BGR - 14.4" (8.5"; 1993) CAR - 7.5" (3.6"; 1978) --- Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments. Final results and

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - The Forecasts

2011-04-02T18:32:00.000-04:00

7 forecasters 1 Rookie 2 Interns 0 Journeymen 4 Seniors Seven is the minimum number of forecasts for the results to be included in Interim and End-of-Season standings. --- All forecasts have been posted to the Contest's home page. Entries are ranked in ascending order by 'storm-total' snowfall. Please check you entry for accuracy. Usual range of expected storm-total snowfalls... Min: 56" (

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Raw Forecasts

2011-03-31T22:57:00.000-04:00

Raw forecasts here. Formatted forecasts and summary will be posted on Saturday. --- Forecasters who are COMCAST subscribers may not have received a copy of their entry b/c COMCAST blocked the e-mail as SPAM.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Call for Forecasts

2011-03-30T17:00:00.000-04:00

Farm by Léonard Misonne In what will in all likelihood be this winter/s last contest-worthy hurrah...a pokey...yet potent...nor'easter is poised to put down plenty-o-snow over northern forecast stations. The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event. --- Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT THU...31-MAR-11 Forecast element: storm-total snowfall

Winter '10 / '11 - Recommended Reading

2011-03-22T20:11:00.000-04:00

Joseph D/Aleo/s wx blog

Winter '10 / '11 - VCP32 - Snow Sharks

2011-03-09T18:14:00.000-05:00

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Call for Forecasts - CANCELED

2011-03-05T18:26:00.001-05:00

Contest 8/s 'Call for Forecasts' has been canceled. Too warm aloft. Too many stations expected to measure too little snow.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Call for Forecasts

2011-03-05T12:35:00.001-05:00

Carmine St...Greenwich Village...NYC 19-MAR-56 Ratty-looking early spring storm over northern New England...as depicted by today/s 12z GooFuS...appears to have enough snow on the northwest edge of the precipitation shield to be a contest-worthy event. The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event. --- Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST SAT...05-MAR-11

Winter '10 / '11 - VCP32 - Don/t Think It/s Gonna Change

2011-02-26T22:19:00.001-05:00

Winter '10/'11 - Storm #8 - Open Thread

2011-02-25T22:14:00.000-05:00

Whaddayathink?

Winter '10 / '11 - Interim Standings - #5

2011-02-25T09:08:00.000-05:00

After seven snow storms... Under the 'two-thirds' rule...the best 'two out of three' Z-scores are used to compute the interim standings. After Snow Storm #7...your top five Z-scores were used to calculate these standings. Data used to compute the standings are posted at the Contest web site here. Z-scores are used to standardize / normalize forecast errors for each snow storm so at the end of

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - Final Results

2011-02-23T09:49:00.001-05:00

1st - donsutherland1 SUMSQ: 20.61 SUMSQ Z: -0.704 STP: 4.15 (1) TAE: 16.85 (1) AAE: 0.70 (1) 2nd - TQ SUMSQ: 22.19 SUMSQ Z: -0.691 STP: 8.10 (3) TAE: 17.30 (2) AAE: 0.72 (2) 3rd - Donald Rosenfeld SUMSQ: 27.04 SUMSQ Z: -0.651 STP: 10.34 (5) TAE: 19.34 (3) AAE: 0.81 (3) Honorable Mention - herb @ maws SUMSQ: 29.81 SUMSQ Z: -0.628 STP: 12.70 (6) TAE: 20.00 (4) AAE: 0.83 (4) SUMSQ:

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - Preliminary Verification

2011-02-22T11:13:00.000-05:00

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Sunday and Monday from CDUS41 and CXUS51...as of 11 AM Tuesday. Storm-total snowfall for HYA and SBY were estimated from METARs. Some stations in the data table do not have SN:H2O reported b/c their totals included mixed precipitation. --- One daily record. MON...21-FEB-11 BGM - 3.5" (3.5"; 1993) --- Please report any errors and drop a link to the

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - The Forecasts

2011-02-21T09:59:00.001-05:00

12 forecasters 1 Rookie 2 Interns 2 Journeymen 7 Seniors including Chief Forecaster Ira Libov --- All forecasts have been posted to the Contest's home page. Entries are ranked in ascending order by 'storm-total' snowfall. Please check you entry for accuracy. Extra large range of expected storm-total snowfalls... Min: 27" (Donald Rosenfeld) Max: 118" (Roger Smith) Avg: 59" Median: 52" STD: 23"

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - Raw Forecasts

2011-02-20T21:32:00.000-05:00

The raw forecasts have been posted at the ne_wx GoogleGroup.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - Call for Forecasts

2011-02-19T20:14:00.001-05:00

NY Bronx Mosholu Parkway FEB 1961 After a three week hiatus...NEWxSFC is back in business for a storm system progged to cut across just enough northern forecast stations with just enough storm-total precipitation to make it a contest-worthy event. Please note the earlier than usual deadline of 7 PM. Verification period includes Sunday to capture the storm's leading edge of frozen

Winter '10 / '11 - VCP32 - Nothing in Life is Ever Easy

2011-02-08T22:04:00.000-05:00

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #6 - NESIS

2011-02-07T11:15:00.001-05:00

NESIS: 5.30 Category 3 (Major) Ranked 19th Image courtesy NCDC.

Winter '10 / '11 - Interim Standings - #4

2011-02-06T16:54:00.000-05:00

After six snow storms... Under the 'two-thirds' rule...the best 'two out of three' Z-scores are used to compute the interim standings. After Snow Storm #6...your top four Z-scores were used to calculate these standings. Data used to compute the standings are posted at the Contest web site here. Z-scores are used to standardize / normalize forecast errors for each snow storm so at the end of the

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #6 - Final Results

2011-02-05T15:11:00.000-05:00

1st - donsutherland1 SUMSQ: 52.23 SUMSQ Z: -0.632 STP: 8.50 (1) TAE: 18.60 (1) AAE: 1.03 (1) 2nd - Donald Rosenfeld SUMSQ: 52.39 SUMSQ Z: -0.632 STP: 12.34 (2) TAE: 22.34 (2) AAE: 1.31 (2) 3rd - ejbauers SUMSQ: 111.80 SUMSQ Z: -0.582 STP: 13.80 (3) TAE: 26.80 (3) AAE: 1.49 (3) Honorable Mention - snowman SUMSQ: 126.42 SUMSQ Z: -0.570 STP: 16.70 (4) TAE: 33.30 (4) AAE: 1.85 (4)

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #6 - Preliminary Verification

2011-02-05T12:31:00.002-05:00

(updated below) Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Wednesday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS...as of 9 AM Thursday. CON/s Daily Climate Bulletin did not carry a snowfall report. Verifying storm-total snowfall was estimated at 10". It was derived from 0.71" liquid precipitation data element carried in CON/s CLIMATE REPORT (CLICON) based on SN:H20 of 14:1 Many stations in the data table do

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #3 - NESIS

2011-02-02T19:25:00.000-05:00

NESIS: 5.31 Category 3 (Major) Ranked 19th Courtesy NCDC

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #6 - The Forecasts

2011-02-02T08:55:00.001-05:00

10 forecasters 1 Rookie 2 Interns 1 Journeyman 6 Seniors --- All forecasts have been posted to the Contest's home page. Entries are ranked in ascending order by 'storm-total' snowfall. Please check you entry for accuracy. Larger than usual range of expected storm-total snowfall... Min: 64" (Donald Rosenfeld) Max: 320" (MarkHofmann) Avg: 125" Median: 100" STD: 76" Consensus heavy snowfall

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #6 - Raw Forecasts

2011-02-01T22:50:00.000-05:00

Raw forecasts at ne_wx GoogleGroup here.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #6 - Game On!

2011-02-01T21:00:00.002-05:00

WOW-ZER!

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #6 - Call for Forecasts

2011-01-31T13:25:00.001-05:00

Boston...MA 02-FEB-61 NESIS: 7.06 (crippling) Potent winter storm heading east today from the central plains is packed to the gills with dynamic and thermo-dynamic forcing elements. Models advertising coupled upper-level jet streaks...100+ kt speed-max at 5H...tight thermal gradient bent into an 'S-shape' at 85H indicating strong WAA on 60 kt winds loaded with 1"+ PWs from the GOM. The

Winter '65 / '66 - On This Day in NESIS History

2011-01-30T21:20:00.003-05:00

A MAJOR (NESIS 5.05 5.93) snowstorm affected the northeast between January 29 and 31...1966. This storm ranks 12th out of 66 since 1948. Originating in the GOM on 29-JAN...the storm marched up the coast to a position off the Delmarva Peninsula on the 30th where a 930-ish central pressure was observed. The strong cyclonic circulation threw high PW air into an arctic air mass where dew points

Winter '10 / '11 - Interim Standings - #3

2011-01-30T19:56:00.005-05:00

After five snow storms... Under the 'two-thirds' rule...the best 'two out of three' z-scores are used to compute the interim standings. After Snow Storm #4 5...your top four z-scores were used to calculate these standings. Data used to compute the standings are posted at the Contest web site here. Z-scores are used to standardize / normalize forecast errors for each snow storm so at the end

Winter '10 / '11 - Forecaster Master Database

2011-01-29T17:06:00.000-05:00

The forecaster master database through Snow Storm #5 has been updated here. The database (.html) has each forecast verification element by forecaster...such as Sum of Square Errors (SUMSQ)...Total Absolute Error (TAE)...Average Absolute Error (AAE)...and the Coefficient of Determination (RSQ). These 'measures of skill' are described at the Contest's web site here as part of the interim 'regular

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #5 - Final Results

2011-01-29T15:20:00.000-05:00

1st - nnjwxguy78 SUMSQ: 327.44 SUMSQ Z: -1.369 STP: 5.00 (1) TAE: 70.70 (2) AAE: 2.83 (4) 2nd - Mitchel Volk SUMSQ: 377.41 SUMSQ Z: -1.086 STP: 38.40 (5) TAE: 73.00 (4) AAE: 2.70 (2) 3rd - donsutherland1 SUMSQ: 436.72 SUMSQ Z: -0.750 STP: 45.65 (8) TAE: 70.15 (1) AAE: 2.70 (1) Honorable mention - ejbauers SUMSQ: 448.55 SUMSQ Z: -0.683 STP: 55.55 (9) TAE: 71.65 (3) AAE: 2.76 (3)

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #5 - Preliminary Verification

2011-01-28T14:50:00.001-05:00

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Wednesday and Thursday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS...as of noon Friday. No updated snowfall report was carried in the NWS PNSBOX bulletin for HYA. Verifying storm-total snowfall of 3.5" was estimated from vicinity reports. SBY/s Daily Climate Bulletin did not carry a snowfall report. Verifiying storm-total snowfall came from PNSAKQ. PHL/s

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #5 - Snow Gun

2011-01-26T21:49:00.005-05:00

(Updated below) Tonight's 00z rawindsonde flight launched from OKX observed some major-league instability atop deep low-level moisture. - Note the strong deep-layer iso-thermal WAA through ~600 mb beneath a layer of CAA near 500mb. - Snow is indicated b/c the entire column is below zero. - Specific gravity peaks close to 5g/kg near 750 mb. - Baroclinic instability indicated with strong increase

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #5 - TSSN

2011-01-26T17:58:00.002-05:00

SPECI KIAD 262021Z 34007KT 1SM -TSSN BR BKN004 OVC010CB 01/M01 METAR KFDK 262051Z AUTO 35010KT 1SM -TSSN OVC009 01/01 METAR KBWI 270154Z 34009KT 3/4SM R10/3500V4500FT -TSSN BR OVC003 01/00

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #5 - The Forecasts

2011-01-26T08:25:00.001-05:00

EDIT: a double-entry for Roger Smith was removed. The forecast data table at the Contest's web site has been updated. --- 14 13 entries 1 Rookie 4 2 Intern forecasters 1 Journeyman forecasters 7 Senior forecasters including Chief forecaster Ira Libov. --- All forecasts have been posted to the Contest's home page. Follow the link from Storm #5. Entries are ranked in ascending order by '

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #5 - Raw Forecasts

2011-01-25T22:45:00.000-05:00

Raw forecasts here (ne_wx GoogleGroup).

Winter '10 / '11 - Interim Standings - #2

2011-01-24T18:22:00.008-05:00

After four snow storms... Under the 'two-thirds' rule...the best 'two out of three' z-scores are used to compute the interim standings. After Snow Storm #4...your top three z-scores were used to calculate these standings. Data used to compute the standings are posted at the Contest web site here. Z-scores are used to standardize / normalize forecast errors for each snow storm so at the end of

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #5 - Call for Forecasts

2011-01-24T15:25:00.000-05:00

East Side...NYC 24-JAN-1908 Large-scale disagreement between today/s 12z NAM and GooFuS runs. HPC discounted the NAM solution as a 'slow outlier' in its afternoon discussion. GooFuS keeps the LOW closer to the coast putting enough stations in play for a contest-worthy event. The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event. --- Deadline for entries:

Winter '10 / '11 - WSI Expects Warm FEB

2011-01-24T10:37:00.006-05:00

"“The end of the recent long-lived and extreme North Atlantic blocking episode, along with a return to more dateline blocking typical of late winter La Nina regimes, should result in a return of colder weather to the western half of the US in February while the eastern US finally experiences more moderate temperatures,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford." FEB - warmer MAR - colder

Winter '10 / '11 - Stratospheric Warming - Take 4

2011-01-24T09:38:00.002-05:00

Meant to post this over the weekend. Subsequent runs of the ECMWF have continued with the idea of a weakening polar vortex by month/s end suggesting a warming in the stratosphere with implications for cold temperatures toward the end of meteorological winter. Note how the strong 85 m/s (~170 kts) PV in the left panel weakens to 35 m/s (~70 kts) by D+10 where the deep-layer blue

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #4 - Final Results - UPDATED

2011-01-24T09:07:00.002-05:00

The final results for Snow Storm #4 have been updated to include a forecast issued after the deadline. Technical difficulties with the Contest's web site were experienced by Senior forecaster Mitch Volk Friday evening around 9:30 PM. These difficulties prevented him from issuing a forecast before the deadline. When I learned of this problem...I asked Mitch to send me the forecast he tried

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #4 - Final Results

2011-01-23T18:29:00.002-05:00

SFC Analysis 12z 21-JAN-11 1st - Brad Yehl SUMSQ: 75.76 SUMSQ Z: -0.945 STP: 7.50 (3) TAE: 26.50 (2) AAE: 1.10 (3) Bride's Maid - Shillelagh SUMSQ: 79.91 SUMSQ Z: -0.890 STP: 0.80 (2) TAE: 26.90 (3) AAE: 1.08 (2) 3rd - TQ SUMSQ: 95.25 SUMSQ Z: -0.686 STP: 11.50 (6) TAE: 27.90 (4) AAE: 1.16 (4) Honorable Mention - donsutherland1 SUMSQ: 100.19 SUMSQ Z: -0.621 STP: 17.60 (8) TAE:

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #4 - Preliminary Verification

2011-01-22T09:43:00.006-05:00

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Friday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS...as of 8 AM Saturday. No snowfall report was carried in the NWS PNSBOX bulletin for HYA. Verifying storm-total snowfall of 0.5" was estimated from HYA/s Pxxxx METAR data. A field formatting error in the data table shows ACY and IAD with 0.1". Actual STP was a 'trace' (0.05") at both locations. --- Three new daily

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #4 - The Forecasts

2011-01-22T09:29:00.001-05:00

11 entries 1 Rookie 2 Intern forecasters 2 Journeyman forecasters 6 Senior forecasters Snow storm #4...while tame compared to the first three events...put down down respectable storm-total snowfalls over several New England stations. --- All forecasts have been posted to the Contest's home page. Follow the link from Storm #4. Entries are ranked in ascending order by 'storm-total' snowfall.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #4 - Raw Forecasts

2011-01-20T22:48:00.000-05:00

Raw forecasts here.

Winter '10 / '11 - December Snow Cover

2011-01-20T19:44:00.000-05:00

From NCDC... "The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during December 2010 was much above-average, marking the fourth largest December snow cover extent on record — behind December 2009, 1985, and 1970." "During December 2010, the North American snow cover extent was above average, ranking as the seventh largest on record. This marks the fourth consecutive December with above-average snow

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #4 - Call for Forecasts

2011-01-19T16:44:00.001-05:00

Union...Maine JAN-1926 Miller-B (.pdf) cyclogenesis forecast to occur off the Delmarva peninsula early FRI morning. Progs aren/t all that juiced nor are the powerhouse dynamics we/ve seen with previous storms evident until the system lifts out to the NE. Even so...the storm appears to be contest-worthy. The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event. ---

Winter '10 / '11 - Northeastern Snowfall Impact Scale - Return Periods

2011-01-19T14:54:00.005-05:00

The heavy snowfall of late December scored a 4.92 on the Northeastern Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS). It ranked 59th out of 76 events. How often can a storm of this impact be expected to affect the NE? Plotting the Gumbel distribution curve for the 76 NESIS events...we can estimate the return period of a 4.92 magnitude snow storm as 3.72 years. What about the estimated return periods for the '

Winter '10 / '11 - Interim Standings - #1

2011-01-17T09:49:00.001-05:00

After three snow storms... Under the 'two-thirds' rule...the best 'two out of three' z-scores are used to compute the interim standings. After Snow Storm #4...your top three z-scores will be used. Z-scores are used to standardize or normalize the errors from each storm so at the end of the season...the scores can be averaged. An expanded data table with other measues of forecaster skill at the

Winter '10 / '11 - Forecaster Master Database

2011-01-15T13:25:00.000-05:00

The forecaster master database has been updated here. The database (.html) has each forecast verification element by forecaster...such as Sum of Square Errors (SUMSQ)...Total Absolute Error (TAE)...Average Absolute Error (AAE)...and the Coefficient of Determination (RSQ). These 'measures of skill' are described at the Contest's web site here as part of last year's interim/final 'regular season'

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #3 - Final Results

2011-01-14T18:16:00.004-05:00

12z 12-JAN-11 1st - emoran SUMSQ: 423.59 SUMSQ Z: -1.115 STP: 1.20 (2) TAE: 76.80 (2) AAE: 2.84 (2) 2nd - donsutherland1 SUMSQ: 430.73 SUMSQ Z: -1.091 STP: 39.75 (6) TAE: 72.35 (1) AAE: 2.68 (1) 3rd - Donald Rosenfeld SUMSQ: 430.92 SUMSQ Z: -1.090 STP: 4.40 (3) TAE: 84.70 (5) AAE: 3.14 (5) 00z 13-JAN-11 Honorable Mention - Brad Yehl SUMSQ: 484.58 SUMSQ Z: -0.908 STP: 42.15 (7)