Rookie 2
Intern 1
Journeyman 1
Senior 6
TOT 10
TAKE 2!
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| NYC 13-DEC-69 |
1st - dryslot
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SUMSQ:
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570.76
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SUMSQ Z:
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-0.938
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STP:
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28.85
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(7)
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TAE:
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71.25
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(1)
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AAE:
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2.97
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(1)
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2nd - iralibov
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SUMSQ:
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692.28
| |
SUMSQ Z:
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-0.773
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STP:
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5.95
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(1)
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TAE:
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97.45
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(3)
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AAE:
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4.24
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(3)
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3rd - Roger Smith
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SUMSQ:
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768.80
| |
SUMSQ Z:
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-0.668
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STP:
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45.90
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(10)
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TAE:
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101.40
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(4)
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AAE:
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4.41
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(5)
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HM - flame_boy
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SUMSQ:
|
825.02
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SUMSQ Z:
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-0.592
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STP:
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39.74
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(8)
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TAE:
|
85.28
|
(2)
|
AAE:
|
3.88
|
(2)
|
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| BOS 26-FEB-69 |
15 forecasters
10 Senior
1 Journeyman
1 Intern
3 Rookies...including 1 'first-timer'. Welcome flame_boy!
 |
| Route 128 Danvers...MA 10-FEB-69 |
DEC/s snowfall totals got the season off to a promising start with nine stations measuring above normal snowfall and 103% above normal for the entire forecast area where northern stations got the best of it. Total departure was +5.7".
All stations measured below normal snowfall totals in JAN for a total departure of -139.5". Three southern stations made it into the Top Ten.
As of the end of JAN...season-total snowfall over the entire forecast area was 28% below normal.
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GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below
Long-range progs continue to offer a contest-worthy storm toward week's end for the northern M-A and SNE.
UL: 500 mb Z and PMSL
UR: 500 mb Z and vorticity
LL: PMSL and precipitation type
LR: PMSL and 2m Td
Today/s 108-hour solutions from the 12z GFS suggest initial forcing from-low level warm air advection followed by a modest measure of mid-level intensification as the system approaches the SNE coast.
Should this scenario come to pass...
Call for Forecasts: Wed evening...23-JAN-13
Deadline: 10:30 PM EST Thu...24-JAN-13
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Images courtesy Meteocentre.com
Not sure what if anything it means but here's the state of the AO at the mid-point of meteorological winter during its 64 year period-of-record.
Blue line is the observed AO on 15-JAN.
UPDATE #3
Current SSW event can now be classified as a major warming. Temperatures have increased ~50°C in less than seven days AND zonally averaged winds @60°N have turned easterly.
Max 10 mb (31,242m; ~50K') temperature @12z today was -22°C (-7.6°F) over Viljujsk...Russia (map).
Why is SSW matters...
Pronounced weakenings of the NH wintertime stratospheric polar vortex tend to be followed by episodes of anomalously low surface air temperatures and increased frequency of occurrence of extreme cold events throughout densely populated regions such as eastern North America, northern Europe, and eastern Asia that persist for ~2 months.http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/pubs/Thompsonetal_2002.pdf
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| North- South 0° - 180W° East - West 90°E - 90°W |
UPDATE
December AO: -1.749
Rank: 11th (17th percentile)
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Original post date: 26-DEC-12 @6:31 PM EST
Little doubt DEC/s index will come in negative given the 30-day moving average stands at -1.965.
Does the sign of DEC/s AO have any predictive value? The sign of NOV/s AO was shown to have predictive value for the sign meteorological winter/s (D-J-F) average AO.
The 2x2 contingency table of DEC/s AO index and JAN/s index shown below suggests there/s a strong association between the two...especially when DEC/s AO is < 0.
Each cell in the table shows the number of years where the sign of the DEC/s AO was associated with the sign of JAN/s AO.
When DEC/s AO is < 0...there/s an 82% chance the JAN/s average AO will also be negative.
The table/s precision is 74%...where precision is the proportion of negative cases predicted correctly [a / (a + c)]. The probability of a 'false positive' (-AO forecast; + AO observed) is 36%.
Not sure what if anything it means but here/s the state of the AO on Day 31 of meteorological winter during its 63 year period-of-record.
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| Two Towers - New York Alfred Stieglitz OCT-1911 |
December/s SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) came in at -6 after three consecutive months where the index went above zero.
A negative SOI is associated with above normal sea surface temperatures (SST) in ENSO Region 3.4 in the tropical Pacific. Sustained SOI < -8 indicates el Nino.
Weekly SST anomalies from Region 3.4 have been running a tenth or two below normal the past four weeks causing the 12-week moving average to fall to 0.18 (neutral-warm).
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