Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: The Forecasts!

Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 6
TOT 8

101 station forecasts.

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Heaviest snowfall (+4") consensus across DC-BATLO metro area extending onto the Delmarva with the lollypop expected at IAD.  Another consensus about whether this was a contest-worthy event!

<still speechless>

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Wednesday and Thursday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.  Good coverage and reporting.

HYA/s 0.25" STP estimated from vicinity reports and KHYA METARs.

Two new daily records
WED:
BTV - 15.2" (7.2"; 1959)

THU:
CAR - 9.4" (8.7"; 1953)

Many SLRs contaminated by mixed precipitation.

00z 13-MAR-14

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results Sunday evening.

Great Blizzard of 1888: 13-MAR-1888

13-MAR-1888

10 PM M-A temps in the skinny teens.
Zero in Marquette...MI

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: Call for Forecasts

Great Blizzard of 1888

UPDATE 2:
Specified end of verification period as 11:59 PM EDT MON 17-MAR-14

UPDATE:
SAT/s 12z GFS points to a contest-worthy event!

Wx GO!

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Mid-Atlantic appears to be in line for a relatively late-season snowfall featuring the interaction between cold air damming and weak waves of LOW pressure migrating NE along an arctic frontal boundary.

Contest for Storm #8 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

Please note the 'Call for Forecasts' e-mails and updates to the Contest/s web site will be delayed a few hours this evening.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall

Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EDT...SAT...15-MAR-14

Verification period begins:  12:01 AM EDT SUN...16-MAR-14

Verification period ends:  11:59 PM EDT MON...17-MAR-14

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Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: The Forecasts

9 forecasters
Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 7

160 station forecasts.

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus across north and northwestern stations with lollypops expected at BTV and CAR.

<speechless>

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site here.

Sorry for the 24-hour delay posting the forecasts.
Posting of the preliminary verifications will be delayed until Saturday.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: Call for Forecasts!

DC - 1917

'Call for Forecasts' being issued despite the current forecast appearing marginal for a contest-worthy event on Wednesday.  Would hate to let  a late-season event slip thorough the cracks.

Contest for Storm #7 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EDT TUE...11-MAR-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EDT WED...12-MAR-14
Verification ends:  11:59 PM EDT THU...13-MAR-14

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Final Results

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #6 at the Contest/s web site here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Monday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

Good coverage and reporting.

HYA/s 2" STP estimated from PNSBOX vicinity reports.

No new daily records; however...IAD tied their record of 4.9" set in 1978.

15z 03-MAR-14

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results Wednesday evening.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: The Forecasts!

13 forecasters
Rookie 1 (Welcome ezwx!)
Intern 1
Journeyman 1
Senior 10
TOT 13

182 station forecasts.

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.
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Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for a northern mid-Atlantic event with lollypops expected along the DC-BWI corridor.
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AO rides to the rescue (again).
NAO MIA (again).

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: RAW Forecasts

Here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Call for Forecasts!

VT

NOTE:  Deadline for entries 7 PM SUN!
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Complicated synoptic situation in store regarding the verification period for Storm #6.

NWP progs snow to begin accumulating at some M-A forecast stations by 00z/03-MAR-14 which is why the verification period will begin 12:01 AM SUN...02-MAR-14.

Twelve forecast stations along and north of a BGM - BDR - PVD line are excluded for Storm #6 because Sunday/s snowfall amounts at many these northern stations will 1) likely be in the nuisance category (< 4"), 2) already on the ground before the deadline, and 3) not involved to any great extent for the main event on Monday.

Excluded stations:
BGM
ALB
BDL
BDR
ORH
BOS
PVD
CON
PWM
BTV
BGR
CAR

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  7 PM EST...SUN...02-MAR-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST SUN...02-MAR-14
Verification ends:  11:59 PM EST MON...03-MAR-14

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-Total' Forecast Contest: JAN Totals

JAN/s snowfall totals picked up where DEC left off with 17 stations measuring above normal snowfall and 139% of normal for the entire forecast area where northern mid-Atlantic stations continued to get the best of it.  Total departure was +100.4" above normal.

GREEN - 75th percentile and above

RED - 25th percentile and below

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JAN totals for SBY and ORF are 11.5".
Could be a data entry error in the monthly CXUS51 Climate Report bulletins.

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Stations already above their normal season totals with two months left to go:

PHL - 176%

ORF - 139%

ACY - 132%

EWR - 109%

SBY - 108%

NYC - 103%

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-Total' Forecast Contest: DEC Totals

DEC/s snowfall totals got the season off to a promising start with 16 stations measuring above normal snowfall and 145% of normal for the entire forecast area where northern mid-Atlantic and Maine stations got the best of it.  Total departure was +94.3" above normal.

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GREEN - 75th percentile and above

RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #5: Final Results

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #5 at the Contest/s web site here.

Valentine's Day 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #5: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for WED through FRI from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

Good coverage and reporting.
Every forecast station observed snow.

Daily snowfall for SBY MIA from all bulletins, per usual.  METARs carried -SN for about four hours  with visibility no lower than 1 3/4SM.  P/0000 group during the period summed to 0.02" which earned this station an estimated 0.2" snowfall using a generous 10:1 SLR.

Many stations' SLR contaminated by mixed precipitation.

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Seven new daily records:
THU...13-FEB-14
ABE - 17.8" (3.4"; 1993)
IAD - 11.7" (3"; 1992)
ORH - 10.5" (9"; 1897)
BDR - 9.5" (4.2"; 1950)
EWR - 9.4" (3.3"; 1950)
ISP - 8.1" (0.7"; 2008)
JFK - 5.5" (3"; 1950)

00z 14-FEB-14

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Will try to have the Final results posted SAT evening before 10 PM EST.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #5: The Forecasts

Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journeyman 1
Senior 10
TOT 12

One entry received extra late is listed in the summary but will not be scored officially.

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319 station forecasts.

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for a mid-Atlantic and NE event with the lollypop expected at BGR.

Historic storm affecting the Gulf coast states and the entire eastern seaboard and none of the 'key' teleconnections bother to show up.

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #5: RAW Forecasts

Here. (fixed)

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #5: Call for Forecasts!

NYC - Bronx
Mosholu Parkway
FEB-61

Two waves in today/s forecast.

First one is Storm #5.
It's forecast to lift NE into eastern Canada late Friday.

Second wave progged to enter western PA during the day Friday and may turn out to be a contest-worthy storm.  If so, the 'Call for Forecasts' for Storm #6 would be issued WED evening...12-WED-14 with the deadline for entries at 10:30 PM EST THU...13-FEB-14.  The verification period would begin over western portions of the forecast area at 12:01 AM EST FRI...14-FEB-14.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall for the 1st wave

Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST...TUE...11-FEB-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST WED...12-FEB-14
Verification ends:  11:59 PM EST FRI...14-FEB-14

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #4: FINAL Results

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #4 here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #4: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for WED and THU from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

Good coverage and reporting.

BDL SLR contaminated by FZRA

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Two new daily records:

WED...05-FEB-14

BOS - 13.2" (3"; 1976)

BTV - 9.3" (7.9"; 1968)

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results SAT evening before 9 PM EST

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Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #4: The Forecasts

Rookies  1
Journeyman  1
Senior  11
TOT 13

266 station forecasts

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile

Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for an interior NE event with lollypops expected at CON and ALB.

Teleconnections upside down.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #4: RAW Forecasts

Here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #4: Call for Forecasts

LGA
10-FEB-1969

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST TUE...04-FEB-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST WED...05-FEB-14
Verification ends:  when the snow stops falling

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.

Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '13 / '14 - Coastal Teaser #4

Promising contest-worthy event mid-week for northern forecast stations.

If progs continue their current trends...
A 'Call for Forecasts' would be issued MON...03-FEB-14.
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST TUE...04-FEB-14

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: Final Results

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm-total precipitation error

TAE: total absolute error

AAE: average absolute error (number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #3 here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Tuesday and Wednesday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.  Good coverage and reporting.

SBY 3" STP reported in PNSAKQ.

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Ten new daily records.

TUE...21-JAN-14
PHL - 13.5" (3.4"; 1917)
EWR - 10" (4.5"; 2011)
ISP - 9.2" (5"; 2000)
IAD - 8.5" (3.2"; 2001)
JFK - 6.8" (5.8"; 2001)
BWI - 5.1" (2"; 1982)
DCA - 3.8" (3.5"; 1982)
ACY - 2.2" (1.8"; 1982)
RIC - 2" (1.8"; 1918)
ORF - 2" (1.4"; 1994)

Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

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Final results delayed until Saturday evening.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: The Forecasts

15 forecasters
Rookies:  1 (Welcome BTRWx!)
Interns:  2
Journeymen:  1
Senior:  11

382 station forecasts.

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for a mid-Atlantic and coastal NE event with the lollypop expected at HYA.

The AO and PNA teleconnections again proving their importance.

Flat lined NAO MIA again.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: Call for Forecasts

DC Knickerbocker Storm
27-JAN-22

UPDATE: corrected dates for entry deadline and start of verification period.

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Big changes in the overnight progs present opportunity for another contest and a short deadline for entries.

Even though QPF is somewhat skimpy, Arctic air will provide ideal environment for high-fluff factor and contest-worthy snows.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST MON...20-JAN-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST TUE...21-JAN-14
Verification ends:  when the snow stops falling

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

---
Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #2 - Final Results

1st - donsutherland1
SUMSQ:	99.9
SUMSQ Z:	-1.269
STP:	16.1	(7)
TAE:	43.1	(1)
AAE:	1.80	(1)
2nd - Herb@MAWS
SUMSQ:	130.2
SUMSQ Z:	-1.021
STP:	20.6	(9)
TAE:	47.0	(2)
AAE:	1.96	(2)
3rd - weatherT
SUMSQ:	173.4
SUMSQ Z:	-0.667
STP:	10.8	(6)
TAE:	53.2	(4)
AAE:	2.13	(4)
HM - Brad Yehl
SUMSQ:	186.2
SUMSQ Z:	-0.562
STP:	3.5	(2)
TAE:	56.8	(5)
AAE:	2.27	(5)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #2 here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #2 - Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Thursday and Friday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.  Good coverage and reporting.

An apparent SN:H20 outlier at BOS; however, vicinity reports suggest STP is accurate.

No climate snowfall data for CON reported on SAT...03-JAN.  DAY2 snowfall estimated at 3.35" based on 0.18 precipitation at SN:H20 of ~18-to-1 (DAY2 average SN:H20 for PWM and ORH)

SBY 2.75" STP estimated from PNSPHI vicinity reports at SELBYVILLE (4")...DELMAR (4.5)...LAUREL (5.1")...BRIDGEVILLE (6.1")...KGED precipitation (0.45")...and SBY precipitation (0.21") and National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center  - Interactive Snow Information.

Twelve new daily records.
Back-to-back records at ACY...EWR...ISP...and JFK

THU...02-JAN-14
BOS - 10.6" (8"; 1904)
ALB - 7.1" (6.8"; 1987)
ISP - 4.7" (3"; 2010)
ACY - 3.7" (1.1"; 1962)
EWR - 3.2" (2"; 1978)
IAD - 3" (2"; 1978)
JFK - 2.4" (1.1"; 1984)

FRI...03-JAN-14
ISP - 6.5" (2.1"; 2010)
EWR - 5.6" (1.2"; 1981)
JFK - 5.5" (1.2"; 1988)
PHL - 3.4" (1.5"; 1988)
ACY - 2.8" (0.4"; 1988)

Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results available SUN evening.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #2: The Forecasts!

13 forecasters
Rookies:  0
Interns:  2
Journeymen:  1
Senior:  10

319 station forecasts.

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for a southern NE event.

Near-blizzard conditions and heavy snowfall expected, yet -NAO is MIA again.
The AO and PNA teleconnections again proving their importance.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

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Corrected to remove duplicate forecasts.
Web site forecasts updated...too.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #2: RAW Forecasts

Here.