SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
---
Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #8 at the Contest/s web site here.
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: FINAL Results
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
---
Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #8 at the Contest/s web site here.
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: Preliminary Verification
Delayed issuance of SBY climate bulletins carried 5" STP coinciding with local media report in PNSAKQ. CLI STP at odds with METAR data; however...it is what it is.
UPDATE @ 3:42 PM
Re-analysis of SBY 6-group and P-group data indicates 0.39" liquid and 3.9" STP at 10:1 SN:H2O.
---
Original post @ 10:01 AM
Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Sunday and Monday from CDUS41 and CXUS51.
Good coverage and reporting.
Six new daily records
SUN...16-MAR-14
IAD - 6.6" (1.6"; 1978)
ACY - 2.2" (1.7"; 1978)
MON...17-MAR-14
PHL - 4.7" (3.5"; 1892)
IAD - 4.5" (1.9"; 1965)
DCA - 3.9" (1.9"; 1965)
ACY - 3.7" (1.6"; 1965)
---
Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results Wednesday evening.
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: FINAL Results
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
---
Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #7 at the Contest/s web site here.
Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: The Forecasts!
Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 6
TOT 8
101 station forecasts.
Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.
Heaviest snowfall (+4") consensus across DC-BATLO metro area extending onto the Delmarva with the lollypop expected at IAD. Another consensus about whether this was a contest-worthy event!
<still speechless>
Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.
Saturday, March 15, 2014
Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: Preliminary Verification
HYA/s 0.25" STP estimated from vicinity reports and KHYA METARs.
Two new daily records
WED:
BTV - 15.2" (7.2"; 1959)
THU:
CAR - 9.4" (8.7"; 1953)
Many SLRs contaminated by mixed precipitation.
 |
| 00z 13-MAR-14 |
---
Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results Sunday evening.
Great Blizzard of 1888: 13-MAR-1888
 |
13-MAR-1888
|
Zero in Marquette...MI
Friday, March 14, 2014
Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: Call for Forecasts
 |
| Great Blizzard of 1888 |
Specified end of verification period as 11:59 PM EDT MON 17-MAR-14
UPDATE:
SAT/s 12z GFS points to a contest-worthy event!
Wx GO!
---
Mid-Atlantic appears to be in line for a relatively late-season snowfall featuring the interaction between cold air damming and weak waves of LOW pressure migrating NE along an arctic frontal boundary.
Contest for Storm #8 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.
Please note the 'Call for Forecasts' e-mails and updates to the Contest/s web site will be delayed a few hours this evening.
---
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT...SAT...15-MAR-14
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EDT SUN...16-MAR-14
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM EDT MON...17-MAR-14
---
Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'
---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
Thursday, March 13, 2014
Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: The Forecasts
9 forecasters
Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 7
160 station forecasts.
Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.
Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus across north and northwestern stations with lollypops expected at BTV and CAR.
<speechless>
---
Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site here.
Sorry for the 24-hour delay posting the forecasts.
Posting of the preliminary verifications will be delayed until Saturday.
Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 7
160 station forecasts.
Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.
Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus across north and northwestern stations with lollypops expected at BTV and CAR.
<speechless>
---
Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site here.
Sorry for the 24-hour delay posting the forecasts.
Posting of the preliminary verifications will be delayed until Saturday.
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
Monday, March 10, 2014
Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: Call for Forecasts!
 |
| DC - 1917 |
'Call for Forecasts' being issued despite the current forecast appearing marginal for a contest-worthy event on Wednesday. Would hate to let a late-season event slip thorough the cracks.
Contest for Storm #7 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.
---
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT TUE...11-MAR-14
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EDT WED...12-MAR-14
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EDT THU...13-MAR-14
Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'
---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
Wednesday, March 05, 2014
Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Final Results
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
---
Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #6 at the Contest/s web site here.
Tuesday, March 04, 2014
Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Preliminary Verification
Good coverage and reporting.
HYA/s 2" STP estimated from PNSBOX vicinity reports.
No new daily records; however...IAD tied their record of 4.9" set in 1978.
 |
| 15z 03-MAR-14 |
Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results Wednesday evening.
Sunday, March 02, 2014
Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: The Forecasts!
13 forecasters
Rookie 1 (Welcome ezwx!)
Intern 1
Journeyman 1
Senior 10
TOT 13
182 station forecasts.
Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.
---
Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for a northern mid-Atlantic event with lollypops expected along the DC-BWI corridor.
---
AO rides to the rescue (again).
NAO MIA (again).
Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.
Rookie 1 (Welcome ezwx!)
Intern 1
Journeyman 1
Senior 10
TOT 13
182 station forecasts.
Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.
---
Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for a northern mid-Atlantic event with lollypops expected along the DC-BWI corridor.
---
AO rides to the rescue (again).
NAO MIA (again).
Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.
Saturday, March 01, 2014
Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Call for Forecasts!
 |
| VT |
---
Complicated synoptic situation in store regarding the verification period for Storm #6.
NWP progs snow to begin accumulating at some M-A forecast stations by 00z/03-MAR-14 which is why the verification period will begin 12:01 AM SUN...02-MAR-14.
Twelve forecast stations along and north of a BGM - BDR - PVD line are excluded for Storm #6 because Sunday/s snowfall amounts at many these northern stations will 1) likely be in the nuisance category (< 4"), 2) already on the ground before the deadline, and 3) not involved to any great extent for the main event on Monday.
Excluded stations:
BGM
ALB
BDL
BDR
ORH
BOS
PVD
CON
PWM
BTV
BGR
CAR
---
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 7 PM EST...SUN...02-MAR-14
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST SUN...02-MAR-14
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST MON...03-MAR-14
Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'
---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).