Monday, March 13, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #4: The Forecasts

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Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile
RED ==> 75th percentile
White STP cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Heaviest snowfall (>= 15") consensus along and the right of CAR - BGR - PWM - BOS - ISP - ORH - CON - CAR with a closed action center around ABE.  Lollypop expected at ORH.

What's that conventional wisdom about the NAO and NE snowstorms again?

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecasts posted to NEWxSFC/s web site @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Preliminary snowfall verifications will probably be posted FRI evening as long as significant snowfall doesn't extend into FRI.
FINAL results possibly by SAT evening.
@

4 comments:

  1. Unknown3/15/2017 10:54 PM

    Bingo Bango Burlo

    That was rather extreme at both ends of the scale, I eyeballed the forecasts and have no idea if anybody is first, last or in the middle of the pack. At a rough estimate, the storm total was 280" although I guess it may be considered not quite done yet?

    -- Roger Smith

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  2. Unknown3/15/2017 11:52 PM

    If anyone was wondering what amounts have fallen, these are totals I worked out, including Mon 13th (minimal where it began before midnight), Tues 14th and early or at least incomplete reports from today 15th, in order of amounts ... of course to be confirmed by TQ "when the flakes stop flying" (small added amounts seem possible). Amounts in comments are for 14th and partial 15th, where they don't add to total the rest was on 13th which should be in brackets before the main amount(s). I added trace as .05" because I think that's what we do? But in climate records trace + trace = 0.0 not 0.1 ... very minor point.

    BGM 35.1 (LOL) -- incl 31.2" largest 24h amt ever recorded there (+3.9 on 15th)
    BTV 29.9 (LOL) -- 17.8 + 12.1 to 5 pm, could gain a bit

    CXY(Har) 17.3 -- (2.3) + 14.7 + 0.3
    ALB 17.05 --- this may change as .09 LE on 15th made a trace of snow ?
    PWM 16.4 --- 16.3 + 0.1
    BDL 15.85 --- 15.8 + trace
    CON 15.65 --- 15.6 + trace
    BGR 14.55 --- (trace) + 14.2 + 0.3 (may go higher)
    ORH 14.45 --- 14.4 + trace
    ABE 13.75 --- (1.3) + 12.4 + trace
    CAR 13.15 --- (trace) + 11.7 + 1.4 (to 4 p.m., will go higher)
    BDR 7.1 --- (all on 14th)
    EWR 7.05 --- (0.1) + 6.9 + trace
    BOS 6.6 --- (all on 14th)
    PHL 6.05 --- (1.2) + 4.8 + trace
    IAD 5.65 --- (1.5) + 4.1 + trace
    JFK 5.20 --- (trace) + 5.1 + trace
    ISP 3.50 --- (trace) + 3.4 + trace
    PVD 3.3 --- (all on 14th)
    BWI 2.25 --- (1.6) + 0.6 + trace
    DCA 2.0 --- (1.1) + 0.9
    ACY 0.15 --- (trace) + trace + trace
    RIC 0.05 --- (trace) + msg, I think zero + zero
    SBY 0.05 --- (trace) + msg, I think zero + zero

    HYA >>> --- I don't know but didn't seem like much, 1-2" perhaps

    ORF and RDU no snow reported
    ____________________________________________

    That should satisfy the curious until the final countdown. -- Roger Smith

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  3. Unknown3/16/2017 2:11 AM

    Slight increases to report to above, from final data for 15th

    BGM _ 35.3 _ 31.2+4.1

    CAR _ 14.15 _ (trace) + 11.7 + 2.4

    BTV amd BGR apparently no new snow after what's reported above.

    No final word on ALB or ABE which remain the way I saw them earlier.

    -- RS

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  4. TQ3/16/2017 7:16 PM

    15 new daily records.
    Yuge melt-water
    No snow @ ACY but 3" rain

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