UPDATE:
SAT ... 31-MAR-18 @ 10 PM EDT
Nothing contest-worthy about this event ATTM.
Slightest chance the 00z ... 01-APR-18 NWP runs will suggest otherwise ==> possible SUN AM 'Call for Forecasts'.
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Snow Storm #9?
Should the present NWP trend continue ...
Call for Forecasts: SAT ... 31-MAR-18
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT ... SUN ... 01-APR-18
Verification period: 12:01 AM EST ... MON ... 02-APR-18 till TBD
Watch this space.
Snowfall forecasting contests for 27 stations across New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions ... since 1999
Friday, March 30, 2018
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Winter '17 / '18 - Regular Season Interim Standings: 6
Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least SIX forecasts are included in interim standings #6.
Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site here (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '17 / '18 contest snow storms here (direct link)
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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.
Similar idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.
Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site here (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '17 / '18 contest snow storms here (direct link)
---
SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.
Similar idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.
Saturday, March 24, 2018
Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #8: FINAL Results
Forecasters' station verifications and the storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
SUMSQ: sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z: Z-score
STP: storm total precipitation error (")
TAE: total absolute error (")
AAE: average absolute error (")
(#): category rank
Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Dotted blue line below (above) solid red line ==> under (over) forecast
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
1st - Brad Yehl | ||||
SUMSQ: | 278 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -1.279 | |||
STP: | 28.9 | (3) | ||
TAE: | 65.1 | (1) | ||
AAE: | 2.50 | (1) | ||
2nd - Shillelagh | ||||
SUMSQ: | 380 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -0.845 | |||
STP: | 43.4 | (5) | ||
TAE: | 73.7 | (2) | ||
AAE: | 2.95 | (2) | ||
3rd - donsutherland1 | ||||
SUMSQ: | 483 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -0.408 | |||
STP: | 64.9 | (9) | ||
TAE: | 90.3 | (5) | ||
AAE: | 3.34 | (4) | ||
HM - iralibov | ||||
SUMSQ: | 489 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -0.383 | |||
STP: | 60.1 | (7) | ||
TAE: | 87.3 | (3) | ||
AAE: | 3.23 | (3) | ||
SUMSQ: sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z: Z-score
STP: storm total precipitation error (")
TAE: total absolute error (")
AAE: average absolute error (")
(#): category rank
Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Dotted blue line below (above) solid red line ==> under (over) forecast
Station by Station
Comparison of Top Forecasters
Friday, March 23, 2018
Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #8: Preliminary STP Verifications
Table of preliminary storm-total snowfall by station for WED and THU from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) and ... SAUS41 (METAR) bulletins.
Exceptions: none
SLR not available for some stations reporting measureable snowfall b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.
---
Stations observing at least Trace - 24 (89%) [corrected]
Given a forecast station observed measurable snowfall ...
Stations observing at least:
4" - 10 (42%)
8" - 5 (21%)
12" - 2 (8%)
16" - 1 (4)
Melt-water
ISP - 1.28"
MDT - 1.13"
PHL - 1.03"
JFK - 0.91"
Max precipitation: ISP - 1.28"
New daily records:
21-MAR-18 (7)
ISP - 14" (1.8"; 2013)
ABE - 13.2" (4.3"; 1964)
MDT - 11.9" (7.5"; 1964)
JFK - 8.4" (0.8"; 1993)
EWR - 7.9" (5.3"; 1958)
PHL - 6.7" (4.7"; 1932)
IAD - 4.8" (2.3"; 1964)
22-MAR-18 (1)
ISP - 4.4" (3"; 1992)
SFC analysis: 03z ... 22-MAR-18
METAR KISP 220256Z 01017G28KT 1/8SM R06/2000V3000FT +SN FG VV003 00/00 A2964 RMK
AO2 PK WND 03033/0231 SLP036 ==> SNINCR 5/12 <== P0023 60040 T00000000 51001 =
5" / hour!
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Please report errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL Results post expected SAT evening ... 24-MAR-18
Exceptions: none
SLR not available for some stations reporting measureable snowfall b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.
---
Stations observing at least Trace - 24 (89%) [corrected]
Given a forecast station observed measurable snowfall ...
Stations observing at least:
4" - 10 (42%)
8" - 5 (21%)
12" - 2 (8%)
16" - 1 (4)
Melt-water
ISP - 1.28"
MDT - 1.13"
PHL - 1.03"
JFK - 0.91"
Max precipitation: ISP - 1.28"
New daily records:
21-MAR-18 (7)
ISP - 14" (1.8"; 2013)
ABE - 13.2" (4.3"; 1964)
MDT - 11.9" (7.5"; 1964)
JFK - 8.4" (0.8"; 1993)
EWR - 7.9" (5.3"; 1958)
PHL - 6.7" (4.7"; 1932)
IAD - 4.8" (2.3"; 1964)
22-MAR-18 (1)
ISP - 4.4" (3"; 1992)
SFC analysis: 03z ... 22-MAR-18
METAR KISP 220256Z 01017G28KT 1/8SM R06/2000V3000FT +SN FG VV003 00/00 A2964 RMK
AO2 PK WND 03033/0231 SLP036 ==> SNINCR 5/12 <== P0023 60040 T00000000 51001 =
5" / hour!
---
Please report errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL Results post expected SAT evening ... 24-MAR-18
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Winter '17 / '18 - Regular Season Interim Standings: 5
Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least FIVE forecasts are included in the interim standings.
Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site here (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '17 / '18 contest snow storms here (direct link)
---
SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.
Similar idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.
Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site here (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '17 / '18 contest snow storms here (direct link)
---
SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.
Similar idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.
Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #8: The Forecasts!
Rookie -
Intern 1
Journey -
Senior 12
GOVT 1
PWSP -
TOT 14
All forecasts posted to the Contest/s web site. (direct link)
Forecasts ranked by their verification period storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE = 25th percentile
RED >= 75th percentile
White STP and 4cast cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile
NWS ER WFOs (GOVT) forecasts derived from public issuances current at the deadline.
Heaviest snowfall (>= 10") consensus along and to the right of PHL - EWR - BDR - ISP - JFK - PHL . Snow cone expected at EWR.
AO regime change with a cursory assist by the NAO.
Intern 1
Journey -
Senior 12
GOVT 1
PWSP -
TOT 14
All forecasts posted to the Contest/s web site. (direct link)
Forecasts ranked by their verification period storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE = 25th percentile
RED >= 75th percentile
White STP and 4cast cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile
NWS ER WFOs (GOVT) forecasts derived from public issuances current at the deadline.
Heaviest snowfall (>= 10") consensus along and to the right of PHL - EWR - BDR - ISP - JFK - PHL . Snow cone expected at EWR.
AO regime change with a cursory assist by the NAO.
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #8: Front-end +TSSN
Blacksburg ... VA
INVOF Roanoke (ROA)
METAR KBCB 210135Z AUTO 05007KT 1/2SM +VCTSSN OVC006 00/00 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE
INVOF Roanoke (ROA)
METAR KBCB 210135Z AUTO 05007KT 1/2SM +VCTSSN OVC006 00/00 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE
Monday, March 19, 2018
Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #8: Call for Forecasts!
![]() |
19-MAR-56 Carmine St ... NYC |
Should Snow Storm #8 come to pass ... MAR will have at least three contest-worthy snow storms for only the third time in NEWxSFC/s history.
Other years with three MAR snow storms happened in 2001 and 2014 (return period 9.5 years; probability during any given winter: 11%).
The forecast contest for Snow Storm #8 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.
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Forecast element: each station's verification period snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT ... TUE ... 20-MAR-18
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EDT ... WED ... 21-MAR-18
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM EDT ... THU ... 22-MAR-18
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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here. http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.
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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast. See how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region Weather Forecast Offices.
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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
NEWxSFC/s email client is permanently off-line.
Forecasters may no longer have a copy of their forecast emailed to them.
Some are getting thorugh. Some are not.
The Contest/s email address newx (at) newx-forecasts (dot) com remains unreachable.
Apologies for the degraded service which is beyond my control.
Saturday, March 17, 2018
Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #7: FINAL Results
Forecasters' station verifications and the storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
SUMSQ: sum of square errors (")
SUMSQ Z: Z-score
STP: storm total precipitation error (")
TAE: total absolute error (")
AAE: average absolute error (")
(#): category rank
Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Dotted blue line below (above) solid red line ==> under (over) forecast
Snowfall analysis courtesy National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
1st - iralibov | ||||
SUMSQ: | 328 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -1.379 | |||
STP: | 31.6 | (5) | ||
TAE: | 66.3 | (1) | ||
AAE: | 2.46 | (1) | ||
2nd - donsutherland1 | ||||
SUMSQ: | 365 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -1.041 | |||
STP: | 29.7 | (2) | ||
TAE: | 67.0 | (2) | ||
AAE: | 2.48 | (2) | ||
3rd - TQ | ||||
SUMSQ: | 394 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -0.787 | |||
STP: | 47.5 | (8) | ||
TAE: | 75.0 | (4) | ||
AAE: | 2.78 | (4) | ||
HM - Brad Yehl | ||||
SUMSQ: | 400 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -0.735 | |||
STP: | 45.8 | (7) | ||
TAE: | 67.8 | (3) | ||
AAE: | 2.51 | (3) | ||
SUMSQ: sum of square errors (")
SUMSQ Z: Z-score
STP: storm total precipitation error (")
TAE: total absolute error (")
AAE: average absolute error (")
(#): category rank
Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Dotted blue line below (above) solid red line ==> under (over) forecast
Snowfall analysis courtesy National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html
Friday, March 16, 2018
Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #7: Preliminary STP Verifications
Table of preliminary storm-total snowfall by station for WED and THU from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) and ... SAUS41 (METAR) bulletins.
Exceptions: none
SLR not available for some stations reporting measureable snowfall b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.
---
Stations observing at least:
Trace - 27 (100%)
4" - 14 (52%)
8" - 10 (37%)
12" - 6 (22%)
16" - 3 (11)
20" - 2 (7%)
Melt-water
ORH - 1.6"
PWM - 1.28"
BTV - 1.19"
BGR, BOS - 1.16"
Max precipitation: ORH - 1.6"
New daily records: 13-MAR-18
ORH - 21.8" (14.8"; 1993)
BOS - 14.5" (12.3"; 1993)
PVD - 9.5" (7"; 1993)
SFC analysis: 15z ... 13-MAR-18
13-MAR-93: the last Storm of the Century for the 20th century.
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Please report errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL Results post expected SAT evening ... 17-MAR-18
Exceptions: none
SLR not available for some stations reporting measureable snowfall b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.
---
Stations observing at least:
Trace - 27 (100%)
4" - 14 (52%)
8" - 10 (37%)
12" - 6 (22%)
16" - 3 (11)
20" - 2 (7%)
Melt-water
ORH - 1.6"
PWM - 1.28"
BTV - 1.19"
BGR, BOS - 1.16"
Max precipitation: ORH - 1.6"
New daily records: 13-MAR-18
ORH - 21.8" (14.8"; 1993)
BOS - 14.5" (12.3"; 1993)
PVD - 9.5" (7"; 1993)
SFC analysis: 15z ... 13-MAR-18
13-MAR-93: the last Storm of the Century for the 20th century.
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Please report errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL Results post expected SAT evening ... 17-MAR-18
Thursday, March 15, 2018
Winter '17 / '18 - Regular Season Interim Standings: 4
Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site here (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '17 / '18 contest snow storms here (direct link)
---
SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.
Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.