Congratulations to Herb @MAWS for his 1st Place finish.
Herb also placed first in '03 / '04 and '09 / '10.
Forecasters ranked by their Total Absolute Error (TAE)
The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how well the forecaster did compared to climatology [(Period-of-Record Normal (PORN)]. The most skillful forecasts beat climatology
RED ==> 75th percentile
WHITE ==> interquartile range (>25th & < 75th percentiles)
BLUE ==> 25th percentile
Forecasters' stations with the lowest absolute error
Snowfall forecasting contests for 27 stations across New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions ... since 1999
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Friday, April 10, 2020
Thursday, April 09, 2020
Winter '19 / '20 - 19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Preliminary STP Verification
Preliminary sum-total season snowfalls for the verification period 01-DEC-19 though 31-MAR-20 collected from monthly climate bulletins (CLMxxx; CXUS51 ... CXUS52).
One forecast station (4% of all stations) with bonus season-total snowfalls [more than Period-Of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N)].
Rank ordered descending by percent of P-O-R-N.
Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Interquartile range (< 75th & > 25th percentiles)
Red ==> 25th percentile
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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL results expected NLT SAT evening.
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Winter '19 / '20 monthly snow totals
DEC: Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals
JAN: Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals
FEB: Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals
MAR: Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals
One forecast station (4% of all stations) with bonus season-total snowfalls [more than Period-Of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N)].
Rank ordered descending by percent of P-O-R-N.
Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Interquartile range (< 75th & > 25th percentiles)
Red ==> 25th percentile
---
Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL results expected NLT SAT evening.
---
Winter '19 / '20 monthly snow totals
DEC: Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals
JAN: Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals
FEB: Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals
MAR: Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals
Wednesday, April 08, 2020
Winter '19 / '20 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals
MAR-20 snowfall summary by forecast station.
Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).
---
Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 25th percentile
Obs reported as 0.05" implies Trace
---
MAR Forecast Station Highlights
No station observed more than 100% of its monthly normal snowfall.
Biggest losers (0")
PHL
BWI
ACY
DCA
RIC
SBY
RDU
ORF
P-O-R-N v. Observed (less than 15%)
PVD: (6.8'' v. 0.4'')
IAD: (3.5'' v. 0.05'')
NYC: (4.9'' v. 0.05'')
EWR: (5.1'' v. 0.05'')
BDR: (5.5'' v. 0.05'')
ABE: (6'' v. 0.05'')
MDT: (6.5'' v. 0.05'')
BOS: (8'' v. 0.05'')
---
Season-total
MAR P-O-R-N contributes 184" (20%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 929".
MAR-20 observed snowfall: 66" (36% of P-O-R-N; 7% of season-total snowfall)
---
Teleconnections
No contest-worthy storms in MAR.
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Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals
Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals
Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals
Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).
---
Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 25th percentile
Obs reported as 0.05" implies Trace
---
MAR Forecast Station Highlights
No station observed more than 100% of its monthly normal snowfall.
Biggest losers (0")
PHL
BWI
ACY
DCA
RIC
SBY
RDU
ORF
P-O-R-N v. Observed (less than 15%)
PVD: (6.8'' v. 0.4'')
IAD: (3.5'' v. 0.05'')
NYC: (4.9'' v. 0.05'')
EWR: (5.1'' v. 0.05'')
BDR: (5.5'' v. 0.05'')
ABE: (6'' v. 0.05'')
MDT: (6.5'' v. 0.05'')
BOS: (8'' v. 0.05'')
---
Season-total
MAR P-O-R-N contributes 184" (20%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 929".
MAR-20 observed snowfall: 66" (36% of P-O-R-N; 7% of season-total snowfall)
---
Teleconnections
No contest-worthy storms in MAR.
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Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals
Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals
Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals