Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Forecast Credibility

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Wx web logs...forums...and message boards were all aflame yesterday with full-throated forecasts for a 'significant' snowfall in adv...
Monday, January 29, 2007

FWIW - Verification of NCEP Week2 5H Z Anoms

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Remember this ? It/s NCEP/s Ensemble Mean forecast for 500 mb height anomalies VT 1/26/2007...issued January 12. So...how good were the act...

Coastal Teaser #4

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Click to animate. Loop speed = 1 frame / 3 sec Wave forms on tail end of strong baroclinic zone courtesy arctic frontal boundary across the...
Sunday, January 28, 2007

Japan Also Waits for -AO

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Japan is on the verge of breaking a long-standing record for latest snowfall. The current record was set in 1876...when winter/s first snow...

Resurgent SOI

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(Updated below) Latest 30-day moving average of the SOI is -9.7. The last time the SOI was that low was the 30-day period ending November 1...
Saturday, January 27, 2007

FWIW - Week2 5H Z Anoms

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Week2 500 mb height anomalies from the PSD, ECMEF, and NCEP (VT 2/9/06). Good agreement wrt Ridge-W / Trof E over CONUS...but does it foresh...
Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Coastal Teaser #3

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Most promising MR prog in weeks! Today/s 12z ECMWF coughs up a long overdue Miller A storm for the EC that has a lot going for it. Even thou...
Monday, January 22, 2007

Locked & Loaded

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A four Rossby-wave configuration is stationary...meaning once established...it/s not going anywhere...anytime soon. Arctic cold in the E ha...

So Long...+ENSO

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This winter/s +ENSO...oft a convenient scapegoat for the abnormally warm temperatures across much of the CONUS...appears to be fading...and ...
Saturday, January 20, 2007

Is A Big One A'comin'?

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This winter/s evil-doers -- mT air masses from the ern PAC -- were overthrown last week when the PV made its long-awaited return home to nrn...