ECHAM - Winter Outlook '08 / '09

Global surface pressure deviation forecasts for DEC and JAN from the German climate model ECHAM...initialized 01 OCT... are shown below. ECHAM forecasts didn/t verify all that well last year (OCT '07; NOV '07)...but as we wait on winter/s arrival...



December
Strong +PNA / -NAO / -AO signature with all the obvious implications for the east coast.

January
Complete reversal of fortunes. Bermuda-like HIGH in the western Atlantic (evidence of la Nina?) with CONUS storm track up the Ohio River Valley. Such a set-up might be good news for snow crows in New England...as was the case last winter. Elsewhere in the forecast area...not so much.