Winter '14 / '15 - Weakening Polar Vortex ==> Sudden Stratospheric Warming: UPDATE 5

"Overall, the easterly winds descending into the lower tropical stratosphere is continually favorable for redirecting tropospheric waves anomalously poleward, which increases the odds of interaction with the stratospheric polar vortex and hence increases the chances of a SSW event this winter. (AER)

OBS

CPC - Stratosphere-Troposphere Monitoring

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First sign of sudden warming at 30 mb

30-hPa temperature change in a week in the Northern Hemisphere
The contour interval is 5 °C. The pink and light blue shadings indicate warming and cooling, respectively. The red shading denotes warming for values higher than 25 °C.

 

Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division

 

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PROGS

NWP projecting a return to above-normal temperatures around mid-JAN.

Have they accounted for the effects from this SSW event?