Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals

Monthly station snowfall summary for JAN-15.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.
 
Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile
 
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Teleconnection Indexes
AO:  +1.092
NAO:  +1.79
PNA:  +0.14
PDO:  +2.45 (monthly record)
QBO:  -26.70 (monthly record)
MEI:  +0.406 (DEC-JAN)

2 comments:

  1. Just FYI, these are the reported seasonal snowfall totals to Feb 17starting from Dec 1 as per the contest ... the amounts in brackets are required to reach our consensus and where negative (and **) represent already achieved surplus over our consensus (BOS, ORH, PVD)

    CAR _68.1 (48.9)
    BGR _74.6 ( 9.9)
    PWM _69.3 ( 8.4)
    CON _64.0 (10.8)
    BTV _61.0 (24.9)
    BOS _93.7 **(-39.9)**
    ORH _95.9 **(-28.6)**
    PVD _53.2 **(-10.5)**
    BDL _41.7 ( 9.9)
    BDR _36.6 ( 1.5)
    NYC _24.2 (11.4)
    ALB _56.5 (12.9)
    BGM _57.4 (17.7)
    EWR _23.8 (11.4)
    ACY _11.4 (11.0)
    ABE _22.8 (19.5)
    MDT _19.2 (20.2)
    PHL _10.2 (23.9)
    BWI _12.9 (14.7)
    SBY _ 8.5 ( 7.3)
    DCA _ 8.4 (14.2)
    IAD _13.3 (14.7)
    RIC _ 7.5 ( 9.1)
    ORF _ 4.8 ( 5.6)
    RDU _ 1.0 ( 7.7)

    BOS and ORH have already exceeded our max forecasts which were 72.0 and 88.0 -- next likely to fall would be PVD at 68.0.

    -- Roger Smith

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  2. At the rate we're going ... some of those deficits won't be hard to erase.

    ReplyDelete