After three snow storm forecasting contests ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least TWO forecasts are included in interim standings #1.
Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site HERE (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '20 / '21 contest snow storms HERE (direct link)
Don Sutherland has been identified incorrectly as the Chief 'Regular Season' forecaster for the '20 / '21 season when that honor belongs to Brad Yehl. We regret the error and apologize to Brad for the oversight.
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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (i.e., standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings. Similar idea as dropping the lowest test score before computing the final grade.
Seems like Dandy Don wins the contest often enough that it's an understandable error. Should be at least one, maybe 2 Contest worthy storms next week. I'm gunning for you, Ty Webb. (Movie reference there). ;)
ReplyDeletemy bad 2x. i made the same mistake last year ...
ReplyDeletelooking forward to more worthiness given the hyper-active pattern in place. the greennland block has been berry berry good for the cold air supply but has limited wave amplification ...