Winter '24 / '25 - Snow Storm #4: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

BOS - Morrissey Boulevard
FEB-78

Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

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Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 Forecasts

- Forecast/s dotted BLUE line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid RED line ==> under (over) forecast error.

- R^2:  how well the forecast 'explained' the variability of the observed snowfall (i.e., an R^2 of 0.710 means the forecast explained 71% of the observed snowfall's variability).

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Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Snowfall by Station

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Forecast Skill Score (measured against NWS ER WFOs)


- Positive (negative) skill values indicate the degree of a forecast/s improvement (degradation)
compared to NWS forecasts.

- Bias:  the arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and the average Observed snowfall (avgForecast - avgObserved).