Showing posts with label LR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label LR. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Winter '22 / '23 - An over-the-horizon look at early autumn's a priori climate conditions

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near Woodstock ... VT Marion Post Wolcott (1940) TL; DR - The stars have yet to align for snow crows and other winter wx enthusiasts. - Abov...
Tuesday, October 04, 2022

Winter '18 / '19 - The Woolly Bear Caterpillar Guide to Winter Weather Forecasting

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It/s that time of year again when long-range wx forecasters scour the bowels looking for ... well ... wadda you say we don/t go there. ...
Friday, November 05, 2021

Winter '21 / '22 - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO): OCT-21

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-19.14 (just inside 1-sigma from the mean) OCT is now the 5th month with a QBO index below zero having flipped in JUN following its 14 month...
Saturday, November 28, 2020

Winter '20 / '21 - 20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Call for Forecasts!

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NEWxSFC/s Director of Season-total Snowfall Forecasting Here comes winter with its oscillating Arctic and North Atlantic indexes ... sudden ...
Saturday, November 21, 2020

Winter '20 / '21 - Outlooks

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Thread updated periodically as new outlooks and forecasts become available from a variety of credible sources. --- CDC - NOV ...
Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Winter '20 / '21 - Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI): Analog Composites of 500 mb Height and 2-meter Temperature Anomalies ... as of SEP / OCT-20

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 Analogs and weights for composites: '70 / '71 (24) '07 / '08 (5) '88 / '89 (1) '95 / '96 (1) '64 / ...
Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Winter '20 / '21 - North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): Analog Composites of 500 mb Height and 2-meter Temperature Anomalies ... as of OCT-20

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Analogs and weights for composites: '61 / '62 (2) '91 / '92 (0) '95 / '96 (0) '99 / '00 (1) '03 / '...
Monday, November 09, 2020

Winter '20 / '21 - Arctic Oscillation (AO): Analog Composites of 500 mb Height and 2-meter Temperature Anomalies ... as of OCT-20

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 Analog years and weights for composites: '89 / '90 (3) ... '90 / '91 (2) ... '97 / '98 (2) ... '02 / '03 (1...
Sunday, October 04, 2020

Winter '20 / '21 - Severe Weather Europe: Winter Forecast

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 Severe Weather Europe ... "The La Nina phase will reach quite a formidable strength at its peak but is expected to start to weaken tow...
Sunday, December 15, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): Leading Analogs' 5H and 2mT Composite Anomalies ... as of NOV-19

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NOV-19 NAO:  +0.28 Same analog years as those associated with NAO/s OCT-19 analysis but with a shuffled ranking. Winter / AVG NAO 80-81...
Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Arctic Oscillation (AO): Leading Analogs' 5H and 2mT Composite Anomalies ... as of NOV-19

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NOV-19 AO:  -1.193 Same analog years as those associated with AO/s OCT-19 analysis but with a shuffled ranking. Winter / AVG AO 97-98 ...
Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Leading Analog: Winter '04 / '05

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Through a careful multi-variate analysis of key teleconnection indices and the process of elimination ... we/ve settled on the '04 / ...
3 comments:
Thursday, November 21, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) - Leading Analogs' 500 mb Anomaly Height Composite ... as of OCT-19

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Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) composites of 500 mb (5H) geopotential height anomalies (GPHa) and 2-meter air temperature anomalies (2mTa) f...
Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Outlooks

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Thread updated periodically as new outlooks and forecasts become available from a variety of credible sources. --- CPC ... --- Fr...
Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Severe Weather Europe: FINAL November Model Forecast for the Upcoming Winter

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"Most forecasts are showing certain lower pressure in the North Atlantic, and higher pressure over Europe and USA, which means gen...
Monday, November 18, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): Leading Analogs' 500 mb Anomaly Height Composite ... as of OCT-19

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Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) composites of 500 mb (5H) geopotential height anomalies (GPHa) and 2-meter air temperature anomalies (2m...
Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO): Leading Analogs' 500 mb Anomaly Height Composite ... as of OCT-19

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Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) composites of 500 mb (5H) geopotential height anomalies (GPHa) and 2-meter air temperature anomalies (2m ...
Sunday, November 10, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Arctic Oscillation (AO): Leading Analogs' 500 mb Anomaly Height Composite ... as of OCT-19

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Arctic Oscillation ( AO ) composites of 500 mb (5H) geopotential height anomalies (GPHa) and 2-meter air temperature anomalies (2m Ta) for a...
Saturday, November 09, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - 500 mb Geopotential Heights and 2m T Anomaly Composites: La Nada Years

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La Nada or neutral ENSO comes in two flavors - Cool (-0.5 < Region 3.4 SSTa < 0) Warm (0 < Region 3.4 SSTa < 0.5) Current c...
Tuesday, November 05, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): Leading Analogs' 500 mb Anomaly Height Composite ... as of OCT-19

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Analog 5H composite ('80/'81 ... '08/'09 ... '12/'13 ... '14/15 ... '16/'17) ... as of OCT-19 - EPO-...