Thursday, February 15, 2024

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #2: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

MA - Rte 128
FEB-1978
Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

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Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 Forecasts


Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.

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Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Snowfall by Station

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Forecaster Skill Score (measured against NWS ER WFOs)


Positive skill values indicate the degree of a forecast/s improvement over NWS forecasts.

Bias:  the arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and the average Observed snowfall (avgForecast - avgObserved).

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #2: STP Verification - Preliminary

NYC - Central Park
West Historic District (20-MAR-56)
Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for TUE based on reporting from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins issued by NWS.

Excellent coverage and reporting.

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HYA
STP derived using inverse distance weighting scheme.

Snow-to-liquid ratios (SLR) less than 8:1 are not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

The 'TOT SLR' field is a quantity-weighted average.

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #2: The Forecasts!

NYC (02-FEB-69)
Rookie      2
Intern      -
Journey      -
Senior      14
GOVT      1
PWSP      1
TOT      18

Rejected forecasts:  1 (unreasonable values)

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Forecaster table ranked by ascending storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE and GREY STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

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Heaviest snowfall (+6") consensus along and to the right of a line from HYA - PVD - BDR - ISP - EWR - ABE - BDL - ORH - HYA. Lollypop expected at PVD.

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Teleconnections

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast posted to the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table here.


Monday, February 12, 2024

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #2: RAW Forecasts

Click through on Read more >> to see forecasts.

Sunday, February 11, 2024

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #2: Call for Forecasts!

Lincoln Memorial (1935)

Contest-worthy snowfall expected on TUE along the NW edge of a migrating LOW/s moisture-rich precipitation shield.

- Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

- Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'

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Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall

Deadline for entries:  10 PM EST ... MON 12-FEB-24
Verification period BEGINS:  12:01 AM EST ... TUE 13-FEB-24
Verification period ENDS:  11:59 PM EST the day snow stops accumulating

By entering ... you also get the chance to see how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region's Weather Forecast Offices. Turns out they/ve been easy to beat!

Who Can Enter
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all other weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters ... astrologers ... along with any other universally recognized class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras ... registered Nostradamuses ... non-violent megalomaniacs ... woolly-bear caterpillars or their Agents ... pest detectives ... ne.wx news group survivors; riders on the StormVista ... refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather free agents ... including self-imposed exiles from Eastern Wx ... and of course ... meteorologists.

Saturday, February 10, 2024

Contest Status

PHL - Broad and Chestnut
early 1930s
Winter '23 / '24
NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contests
 
25th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
 
UPDATE7:30 PM THU ... 15-FEB-24
 
Snow Storm #3
Synoptiscope in VCP32
 
Snow Storm #2
FINAL Results and Storm Summary here

Snow Storm #1:
FINAL Results and Storm Summary here

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Deadline for entries:  typically ~24 hours before the leading edge of a
contest-worthy snow storm is predicted to enter the forecast area.
 
Enter your forecast here.
 
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23rd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest 
 
UPDATE8 PM EST FRI ... 02-FEB-24

Deadline for entries has passed.
Table of forecasts here

DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here
FEB snowfall totals here
MAR snowfall totals here
 
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Winter '22 / '23 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
24th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL results here

22nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL results here

Friday, February 2, 2024

Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Snowfall Totals

NYC - Staten Island
12-DEC-60
JAN-24 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).


Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable)

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JAN Forecast Station Highlights
16 of 25 stations (64%) observed at least 100% of their monthly P-O-R-N snowfall
2 stations (ORH ... BWI) >= 150% above P-O-R-N

Biggest Losers
RIC ... ORF ... and RDU <= 10% monthly P-O-R-N
Not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed at RDU

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Season-total-to-Date
JAN P-O-R-N contributes 278" (30%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936"

JAN-24 observed snowfall:  291" (105% of monthly P-O-R-N; 31% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall)

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals here


Tuesday, January 9, 2024

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

PHL
East River Drive - Fairmount Park

Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

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Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 Forecasts

Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.

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Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Snowfall by Station

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Forecaster Skill Score (measured against NWS ER WFOs)


SKILL: positive (negative) skill value indicates a
forecast/s improvement (decline) over the NWS forecast.

BIAS: arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and
the average Observed snowfall (averageForecast – averageObserved).

Monday, January 8, 2024

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: STP Verification - Preliminary

BOS - Congress and Water Streets
13-APR-33
Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls from SAT and SUN based on reporting from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins issued by NWS.

Excellent coverage and reporting.

HYA
Derived from PNS vicinity report carried by BOS ... inspection of NOHRSC digital snowfall plot  ... and METARs.

Snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) less than 8:1 are not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

The 'TOT SLR' field is a quantity-weighted average.

Saturday, January 6, 2024

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: The Forecasts!

NYC - 8th Ave.
08-Jan-25

Rookie      1
Intern      -
Journey      1
Senior      16
GOVT      1
PWSP      1
TOT      20

Forecaster table ranked by ascending storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE and GREY STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

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Heaviest snowfall (+6") consensus along and to the right of a line from PWM - CON - BOS - ORH - BDL - BGM - ALB - PWM.
Lollypop expected at ORH.

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Teleconnections


-AO / -NAO need +PNA to deliver the mail into the M-A.

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast posted to the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table here.