Winter '23 / '24 - 25th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

BWI - Christmastime in Highlandtown (1950s)

After THREE contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least TWO forecasts are included in this season/s FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).

Individual forecaster/s storm statistics here (direct link).

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FINAL Standings

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Best Forecasts by Storm (lowest SUMSQ Error Z-Scores)

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms [Error statistic:  Sum of Squared Errors Z (SUMSQ Z)]

SUMSQ Error Z:  the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of storm-total snowfall errors for all stations.

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms [Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error Z (TAE)]

 

TAE Error Z:  the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall forecast errors at each station.

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms [Error statistic:  R-squared Z (RSQ Z)]

RSQ: a measure of the how well the 'forecast' snowfall explained (captured) the variability of the 'observed' snowfall (higher the better).

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Forecasters' Skill Scores [(Forecaster Z-score - NWS ER WFOs Z-score) / ER NWS WFOs Z-Score]

Skill scores measure a forecaster/s performance against a standard measure (NWS ER WFOs).  Positive (negative) values indicate better (worse) performance compared to the standard.  0% for NWS does not indicate 'no skill.'

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22 unique forecasters submitted a total of 965 station forecasts.
10 forecasters entered all 3 contests.
7 forecasters entered 2 contests.
5 forecasters entered 1 contest.

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Hope to see y'all again next winter!

Winter '23 / '24 - 23nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

BWI - Park Avenue (1948)

Congratulations to Senior Forecaster WXCHEMIST for issuing the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '23 / '24.  WXCHEMIST also issued the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '13 / '14.

Complete forecaster verification table at the Contest/s web site.

Forecasters ranked ascending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE).

BLUE ==> 1st Quartile
WHITE / GREY ==>  Interquartile range
RED ==> 4th Quartile
ORANGE:  Winter '22 / '23 Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster (winner of  '21 / '22 contest)

The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how much the forecast was better or worse than the Period-Of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N).  Skillful forecasts beat P-O-R-N.

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Forecasters' stations with the lowest absolute error

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Historical season-total snowfalls

Season-total snowfall for Winter '23 / '24 for all forecast stations (515") was 55% of the Period-Of-Record Normal (936").

Winter '23 / '24 ranks 19th among the 20 'season-total' Contests since Winter '04 / '05 ... the winter when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.  It was the 6th consecutive winter with below normal season-total snowfall.  The lowest season-total' snowfall occurred during a moderate La Nina Winter '11 / '12 when 393" was observed.

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Station Climo ... Observed Snowfall ... Departure from Normal ... and Percent of Normal Snowfall

No station observed at least 100% of their season-total P-O-R-N snowfall.

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Monthly snowfall totals
DEC
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2024/01/winter-23-24-season-total-snowfall.html

JAN
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2024/02/winter-23-24-season-total-snowfall.html

FEB
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2024/03/winter-23-24-season-total-snowfall.html

MAR
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2024/04/winter-23-24-season-total-snowfall.html

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Areal coverage of season-total snowfall

Analysis courtesy NOHRSC

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Teleconnections

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PRIZES
1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to WXCHEMIST/s front door):
... pick of the litter from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
... the august and highly coveted title of 'Chief Season-total Snowfall Forecaster' for Winter '23 / '24
... a well-deserved place of honor with past Contest winners

2nd place prize (delivered post-paid right to Jessica Cain/s front door):
... second pick from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

3rd place prize (delivered post-paid right to donsutherland1/s front door):
... third pick from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

Prizes winners: please contact (newxsfc [at] comcast [dot] net) with a USPS address.

Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Snowfall Totals

BOS - Adams Square
(14-FEB-40)

MAR-24 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable)

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MAR Forecast Station Highlights
2 of 25 stations (8%) observed at least 100% of their monthly P-O-R-N snowfall

Biggest Losers
DCA ... ACY ... BWI ... IAD ... NYC ... EWR ... ABE ... MDT ... PVD ... BOS ... BDL ... ORH ... BDR ... ORF ... PHL ... RDU ... RIC ... SBY <= 10% monthly P-O-R-N
Not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed at BDR ... ORF ... PHL ... RDU ... RIC ... SBY.

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Season-total
MAR P-O-R-N contributes 184" (20%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936"

MAR-24 observed snowfall:  86" (45% of monthly P-O-R-N; 9% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall)

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here
FEB snowfall totals here

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #3: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

BOS - Fenway Park
(01-APR-97)

Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary
available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

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Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 Forecasts

Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.

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Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Snowfall by Station

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Forecaster Skill Score (measured against NWS ER WFOs)

Skill: positive values indicate the forecast/s percentage improvement over NWS forecasts.

Bias:  the arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and the average Observed snowfall (avgForecast - avgObserved).

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #3: STP Verification - Preliminary

VT - Marshfield cemetery (1953)

Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for WED though FRI based on reporting from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins issued by NWS.

Excellent coverage and reporting.

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Snow-to-liquid ratios (SLR) less than 8:1 are not reported for stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

The 'TOT SLR' field is the quantity-weighted average of those forecast stations with at least an 8:1 SLR.

Read more »

Contest Status

PHL - Broad and Chestnut
early 1930s

Winter '23 / '24
NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contests

 
25th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest

 

UPDATE:  9:30 PM ET TUE ... 16-APR-24

 

FINAL standings here

 

Snow Storm #3
FINAL Results and Storm Summary here

 

Snow Storm #2
FINAL Results and Storm Summary here

Snow Storm #1:

FINAL Results and Storm Summary here

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Deadline for entries:  typically ~24 hours before the leading edge of a
contest-worthy snow storm is predicted to enter the forecast area.

 

Enter your forecast here.

 

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23rd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest 

 

UPDATE:  11:AM ET SUN ... 14-APR-24

FINAL results here

DEC snowfall totals here

JAN snowfall totals here
FEB snowfall totals here

MAR snowfall totals here

 
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Winter '22 / '23 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

24th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest

FINAL results here

22nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL results here

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #3: The Forecasts!

Rookie      -
Intern      -
Journey      -
Senior      9
GOVT      1
PWSP      -
TOT      10 

Forecaster table ranked ascending by the forecast storm-total precipitation (STP)

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE and GREY STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

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Heaviest snowfall (+6") consensus along and to the right of BGR - PWM - CON - BGR.  Lollypop expected at CON.

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Teleconnections

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table.

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #3: RAW Forecasts

Click through on Read more >> to see forecasts.

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Read more »

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #3: Call for Forecasts!

RDU - 300-block East Martin St.
03-APR-1915

A rare contest-worthy snow storm in APR expected over northern portions of the forecast area.

The last time this happened was 13 years ago in 2011 and only three times prior in the Contest/s 25-year history.

- Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

- Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'

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Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall

Deadline for entries:  10 PM EDT TUE ... 02-APR-24
Verification period BEGINS:  12:01 AM EDT WED ... 03-APR-24
Verification period ENDS:  11:59 PM EDT the day snow stops accumulating

By entering ... you also get the chance to see how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region's Weather Forecast Offices. Turns out they/ve been easy to beat!

Who Can Enter
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all other weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters ... astrologers ... along with any other universally recognized class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras ... registered Nostradamuses ... non-violent megalomaniacs ... woolly-bear caterpillars or their Agents ... pest detectives ... ne.wx news group survivors; riders on the StormVista ... refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather free agents ... including self-imposed exiles from Eastern Wx ... and of course ... meteorologists.

Read more »

Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Snowfall Totals

DC
APR-1924

FEB-24 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but not measurable)

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FEB Forecast Station Highlights
3 of 25 stations (12%) observed at least 100% of their monthly P-O-R-N snowfall
1 station (ABE) >= 150% of P-O-R-N

Biggest Losers
9 of 25 stations (ALB ... BGR ... BOS ... PWM ... DCA ... SBY ... ORF ... RDU ... RIC) observed <= 10% monthly P-O-R-N.

Not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed at RDU or RIC.

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Season-total-to-Date
FEB P-O-R-N contributes 266" (28%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936"

FEB-24 observed snowfall:  109" (41% of monthly P-O-R-N; 12% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall)

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here