Winter '22 / '23 - 24th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

After FOUR contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least THREE forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).

Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).

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Best Forecasts by Storm (lowest SUMSQ Error Z-Scores)

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms [Error statistic:  Sum of Squared Errors Z (SUMSQ Z)]

SUMSQ Error Z is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms [Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error Z (TAE)]

TAE Error Z is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall forecast errors at each station.

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms [Error statistic:  R-squared Z (RSQ Z)]

RSQ is a measure of the how well the 'forecast' snowfall captured the variability of the 'observed' snowfall (higher the better).

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Forecasters' Skill Scores [(Forecaster Z-score - NWS ER WFOs Z-score) / ER NWS WFOs Z-Score]

The skill score measures forecaster performance against a standard measure (NWS ER WFOs).  Positive (negative) values indicate better (worse) performance compared to the standard.  0% for NWS does not indicate 'no skill.'

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19 unique forecasters submitted a total of 1,006 station forecasts.
6 forecasters entered all 4 contests.
4 forecasters entered 3 contests.
4 forecasters entered 2 contests.
5 forecasters entered 1 contest.

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Hope to see y'all again next winter!

Winter '22 / '23 - 22nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

NYC ... 5th Ave.
Alfred Stieglitz.(1892)

Congratulations to snowman for issuing the best season-total snowfall forecast for Winter '22 / '23.

Complete forecaster verification table at the Contest web site.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_24/season-total/season_total_verification_2223.htm

Forecasters ranked ascending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE).

BLUE ==> 1st Quartile
WHITE ==>  Interquartile range
RED ==> 4th Quartile
ORANGE:  Winter '22 / '23 Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster (winner of  '21 / '22 contest)

The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how much the forecast was an improvement over Period-Of-Record-Normal (PORN).  Skillful forecasts beat PORN.

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Forecasters' stations with the lowest absolute error.

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Winter '22 / '23 ranks 17th among the 19 'season-total' Contests since Winter '04 / '05 ... the winter when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.  It was the 5th consecutive winter with below normal season-total snowfall.  Lowest season-total' snowfall occurred during moderate La Nina Winter '11 / '12 when 393" was observed.

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Season-total snowfall for Winter '22 / '23 for all forecast stations (602") came in 36% below the Period-Of-Record Normal (936").

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Station Climo ... Observed Snowfall ... Departure from Normal ... and Percent of Normal Snowfall

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DEC snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2023/01/winter-22-23-season-total-snowfall.html

JAN snowfall totals:
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2023/02/winter-22-23-season-total-snowfall.html

FEB snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2023/03/winter-22-23-season-total-snowfall.html

MAR snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2023/04/winter-22-23-season-total-snowfall.html

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Season-total snowfall analysis courtesy NOHRSC

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Teleconnections

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PRIZES
1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to snowman/s front door):
... pick of the litter from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
... the august and highly coveted title of 'Chief Season-total Snowfall Forecaster' for Winter '23 / '24
... a well-deserved place of honor with past Contest winners

2nd place prize (delivered post-paid right to Jessica Cain/s front door):
... second pick from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

3rd place prize (delivered post-paid right to Herb@MAWS/s front door):
... third pick from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

Prizes winners: please contact (newxsfc [at] comcast [dot] net) with a USPS address.

Winter '22 / '23 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Snowfall Totals

Woodstock ... VT (c.1890)

CORR:  snowfall at CON should be 20.4"
Departure:  8.6"
%MAR:  173%

MAR-23 snowfall summary by forecast station.
Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable).

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MAR Forecast Station Highlights
8 northern tier stations exceeded their monthly snowfall climatology.

Biggest Losers
9 stations observed trace amounts.
2 stations not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed.

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Season-Total-to-Date
MAR P-O-R-N contributes 184" (20%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 934".
MAR-23 observed snowfall:  176" (96% of monthly P-O-R-N; 19% of normal season-total snowfall).

Image courtesy NOHRSC http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/ norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv

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DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here
FEB snowfall totals here

Winter '22 / '23 - Regular Season: Interim Standings #2

After 4 contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule  … forecasters who have entered at least 3 forecasts are included in Interim Standings #2.

Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '22 / '23 contest snow storms (direct link)

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SUMSQ errors for each Contest snow storm are normalized (i.e., standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... averaged then ranked to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.

Winter '22 / '23 - Snow Storm #4: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

Brattleboro ... VT (c.1890)

Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

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Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 Forecasts

Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.

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Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Snowfall by Station

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Forecaster Skill Score (measured against NWS ER WFOs)

Positive skill values indicate a forecast/s improvement over the NWS forecasts.

Bias is the arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and the average Observed snowfall (avgForecast - avgObserved).

Winter '22 / '23 - Snow Storm #4: Preliminary STP Verification

NYC - Inwood
204th and Sherman Ave (MAR-1917)

CON and BDR have yet to issue their daily snowfall reports for 3/14 and 3/15.  A review of the METARs suggests little if any additional snowfall was measured so will proceed with the preliminary verification assigning Trace amounts to those stations where CF6 and CLI report missing values.

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Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for MON through WED based on reporting from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins issued by NWS.

Generally excellent coverage and reporting with CON and BDR as the exceptions.

HYA
'Trace' STP retrieved from METAR and vicinity reports carried by BOSPNS.

Snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

Read more »

Winter '22 / '23 - Snow Storm #4: The Forecasts!

Passiac Falls
NJ

Rookie      1
Intern      -
Journey      -
Senior      10
GOVT      1
PWSP      1
TOT      13

Forecaster table ranked ascending by storm-total precipitation (STP)

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE and GREY STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

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Heaviest snowfall (+8") consensus along and to the right of PWM - CON - BOS - ORH - BGM - ALB - PWM.  Lollypop expected at ALB.

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Teleconnections

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast posted to the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table.

Winter '22 / '23 - Regular Season: Interim Standings #1

St Johns Church
Bridgeport ... CT

After 3 contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule  … forecasters who have entered at least 2 forecasts are included in Interim Standings #1.

Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '22 / '23 contest snow storms (direct link)

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SUMSQ errors for each Contest snow storm are normalized (i.e., standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... averaged then ranked to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings. 

Winter '22 / '23 - Snow Storm #4: RAW Forecasts

Click through the "Read more >>>" link to view the RAW forecasts.

Read more »

Winter '22 / '23 - Snow Storm #4: Call for Forecasts!

VT Dock
by Minor Martin White (1971)

What might be the closest thing to a true coastal nor'easter in several winters poised to rake the East Coast on its way toward the famed 'Benchmark' (40°N / 70°W) over the course of several days; however ... the pseudo Miller B synoptics present far from a perfect set-up for a major I-95 snowstorm.

- Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

- Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'

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Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:00 PM EST ... SUN ... 12-MAR-23
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST ... MON ... 13-MAR-23
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST on the day when flakes stop accumulating.

By entering ... you also get the chance to see how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region's Weather Forecast Offices. Turns out they/ve been easy to beat!

Who Can Enter
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all other weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters ... astrologers ... along with any other universally recognized class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras ... registered Nostradamuses ... non-violent megalomaniacs ... woolly-bear caterpillars or their Agents ... pest detectives ... ne.wx news group survivors; riders on the StormVista ... refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather free agents ... including self-imposed exiles from Eastern Wx ... and of course ... meteorologists.