Wednesday, March 9, 2022

Winter '21 / '22 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Snowfall Totals

Somerset County ... PA-Turnpike (c.1940)

FEB-22 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4h and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

Obs reported as 0.05" denote a Trace (observed but not measurable)

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FEB Forecast Station Highlights
5 stations at or above normal monthly snowfall.

Biggest Losers
12 stations with less then half their monthly normal snowfall.
DCA ... RIC ... and ORF snow observed but not measured (trace)
RDU got skunked.

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Season-Total-to-Date

FEB  P-O-R-N contributes 262" (28%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 929".
FEB-22 observed snowfall:  185" (71% of monthly P-O-R-N; 20% of season-total snowfall)

Image courtesy NOHRSC @ http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/01/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

JAN snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/02/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

Friday, March 4, 2022

Winter '21 / '22 - Regular Season: Interim Standings #3

New Hartford ... CT
14-Feb-1899

After 5 contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule  … forecasters who have entered at least 4 forecasts are included in Interim Standings #3.

Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '21 / '22 contest snow storms (direct link)

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (i.e., standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged and ranked to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.

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Interim Standings #1
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/02/winter-21-22-regular-season-interim.html

Interim Standings #2
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/02/winter-21-22-regular-season-interim2.html

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NOTE:  MitchelVolk's 'Previous Rank(s)' should read '2,2 '