Monday, October 31, 2022

Winter '22 / '23 - 22nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Call for Forecasts!

NEWxSFC/s Director of Season-total Snowfall Forecasting

Here comes another winter with its oscillating Arctic and North Atlantic indexes ... sudden stratosphere warmings ... so-so ENSO ... and if we get lucky ... a seemingly endless parade of 'Miller A' LOWs raking the eastern seaboard.

NE.Wx/s 22nd Annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is the absolute best ... biggest ... and possibly ONLY chance to be recognized for your astute long-range forecasting acumen ;/

And it's s-o-o easy.
Cool prizes ... too!

All you have to do is issue the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for 25 east coast observing stations between RDU and PHL and BOS and CAR!

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Forecast element:
season-total snowfall @ each station

Forecast period:
01-DEC-22 through 31-MAR-23

Error statistic: total absolute error
[Σ abs(forecast - observed)]

Verification:
NWS climate reports (CLM or CF6)

Low. Score. Wins.

Deadline for entries: WED ... 30-NOV-22 @ 11:59 PM EST (01-DEC-22 @ 4:59 UTC)

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Winter '22 / '23 - An over-the-horizon look at early autumn's a priori climate conditions

near Woodstock ... VT
Marion Post Wolcott (1940)
TL; DR
- The stars have yet to align for snow crows and other winter wx enthusiasts.
- Above-normal temperatures and below-normal snowfall for most NEWxSFC/s stations.
 
> Warranties neither expressed nor implied.
> User assumes all risk.
> Not intended for use by children.
 
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Decoder Ring
AO: Arctic Oscillation
CONUS: Continental United States
D-J-F: December-January-February
ENSO: El Niño - Southern Oscillation
EPO: Eastern Pacific Oscillation
M-A: Mid-Atlantic
NE: New England
NAO: North Atlantic Oscillation
NHEMI: Northern Hemisphere
NWP: Numerical Weather Prediction
PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation
QBO: Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
PNA: Pacific-North American pattern
SSTa: Sea-Surface Temperature anomaly
SSW: Sudden Stratospheric Warming
 
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To the extent ENSO ... QBO ... SSTa in the tropical Pacific and the NE coastal waters of CONUS ... sunspots ... PDO ... and the extent of Eurasian cover have any predictive value ... here laid upon the table is the current state of play heading into Winter '22 / '23 as divined from NEWxSFC/s Whirled Headquarters located east of the fall line in VA.

Thursday, October 20, 2022

Winter '22 / '23 - 22nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Preview

ACY (2-day mixed precip:  1.38")

We/re gearing up for the launch of the 22nd Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest where forecasters predict the season-total snowfall for 25 stations from Raleigh ... NC to Binghamton ... NY to Burlington ... VT to Caribou ... ME.

☼ Everyone is welcome to submit a forecast
☼ Totally free to enter
☼ Prizes

► Window for submitting forecasts will open MON ... 01-NOV-22 @ 12:01 AM EDT at the Contest's web site.

Main announcement with a 'Call for Forecasts' coming late OCT.

Facebook ...
https://www.facebook.com/newxsfc

 

 


 

 

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Winter '22 / '23 - Eurasia Snow Cover: SEP

Eurasia/s areal snow cover for SEP-22: ~2,520,000 SQ-KM

- Almost 60% above normal (1,620,000 SQ-KM)
- Ranks 6th during period-of-record (1967 - 2022).
- Highest since 1998 (25 years ago).

The extent of Eurasia/s OCT snow cover has been positively correlated with cold and snowy winter weather in the eastern CONUS so we/re off to a good start.

Data courtesy Rutgers University Global Snow Lab

Winter '22 / '23 - North and West of I-95: Why does snow in the Eastern US always seem fall to the West of I-95?

Are the snow-maker weather systems influenced by the fall line?
 
"This cold-to-warm transition zone is further increased by the presence of the Appalachian Mountains, which are found to the west of the I-95 corridor. This elevation increase starts at the fall line, the geological boundary between the low-level coastal plains and the foothills of the Piedmont.
 
"The fall line is the historical edge of this range mountains and is the point at which the elevation of the land starts increasing. In the short distance between Washington National Airport and Washington Dulles Airport, both near Washington DC, the elevation increases over 300 feet (90 meters)" 
 
More ...

Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Winter '18 / '19 - The Woolly Bear Caterpillar Guide to Winter Weather Forecasting

It/s that time of year again when long-range wx forecasters scour the bowels looking for ... well ... wadda you say we don/t go there.

More better ... consult the Woolly Bear Caterpillar Guide to Winter Weather Forecasting.

(Lightly edited re-post from USENET news group ne.weather 11-OCT-03)

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In recent weeks ... a spate of news articles have appeared about the woolly bear caterpillar and its legendary ability to foretell the upcoming winter based on the color and width of its black and orange stripes.

With so much good information scattered across so many sources ... there appeared to be a need to compile the forecasting rules.

This handy forecasting guide can be printed and kept inside your coat pocket for easy reference.

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The Woolly Bear Caterpillars Among Us
There is more than one kind of woolly bear caterpillar.  The one you use when forecasting is the banded woolly caterpillar ... which becomes the Isabella moth (Pyrrharctia Isabella) in the spring.  Pictures of the caterpillar and moth can be seen here: Caterpillar Moth

Science is Skeptical
It should come as no surprise ... entomologists pooh-pooh the very idea banded woolly bear caterpillars can predict future events.  These naysayers claim variations in band color and width are evidence of a worm/s age and the fall weather conditions when the worm reached maturity.

Worms exhibiting more black than orange are older and grew in wet conditions.  Worms exhibiting less black than orange are younger and grew in dry conditions.  And therein we find the caterpillar's predictive value.