Winter '22 / '23 - 22nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: The Forecasts!

NYC - Central Park
Alfred Eisenstaedt (1959)

Welcome back all the veterans of winters' past.
No Rookies or Interns this year. Those who were in recent years have moved up to Journeyman this year.

Good Luck to All 🍀🍀🍀

Senior NEWxSFC forecaster Steve Okonski (Any.Wx) ... having made the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '21 / '22 (as well as '04 / '05 and two 2nd place finishes along the way) ... is back this year to defend his 'Chief Season-total Forecaster' title.

Forecasters also compete against the Period-of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N) and CONSENSUS.

Table below ranked by ascending season-total snowfall.

BLUE - 1st quartile
RED - 4th quartile

ORANGE - current Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster
GREEN - past Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster

P-O-R-N - Period-Of-Record-Normal
CONSENSUS - median of each station's forecasts

Forecasts issued with decimal values have been recorded as such for verification purposes;  however ... rounding was applied for display purposes only.

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Forecasters:  21
Total station forecasts:  575 (includes P-O-R-N & CONSENSUS)

Station forecasts for snowfall ...
BELOW average - 282 (49%)
AVERAGE - 26 (5%)
ABOVE average - 267 (46%)

Count of stations with 'likely' confidence (>= 65% of all forecasts by station) with ...
- ABOVE average snowfall:  0
- BELOW average snowfall:  0

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All forecasts at the Contest/s web site here (direct link to forecasts here).

Our individual snow storm forecast contests start when the flakes start flyin' from a contest-worthy storm.

'Call for Forecasts' announcements issued on the blog ... web site ... Facebook ... and via email.

Winter '22 / '23 - 22nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Call for Forecasts!

NEWxSFC/s Director of Season-total Snowfall Forecasting

Here comes another winter with its oscillating Arctic and North Atlantic indexes ... sudden stratosphere warmings ... so-so ENSO ... and if we get lucky ... a seemingly endless parade of 'Miller A' LOWs raking the eastern seaboard.

NE.Wx/s 22nd Annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is the absolute best ... biggest ... and possibly ONLY chance to be recognized for your astute long-range forecasting acumen ;/

And it's s-o-o easy.
Cool prizes ... too!

All you have to do is issue the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for 25 east coast observing stations between RDU and PHL and BOS and CAR!

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Forecast element:
season-total snowfall @ each station

Forecast period:
01-DEC-22 through 31-MAR-23

Error statistic: total absolute error
[Σ abs(forecast - observed)]

Verification:
NWS climate reports (CLM or CF6)

Low. Score. Wins.

Deadline for entries: WED ... 30-NOV-22 @ 11:59 PM EST (01-DEC-22 @ 4:59 UTC)

Read more »

Winter '22 / '23 - An over-the-horizon look at early autumn's a priori climate conditions

near Woodstock ... VT
Marion Post Wolcott (1940)

TL; DR

- The stars have yet to align for snow crows and other winter wx enthusiasts.

- Above-normal temperatures and below-normal snowfall for most NEWxSFC/s stations.

 

> Warranties neither expressed nor implied.

> User assumes all risk.

> Not intended for use by children.

 

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Decoder Ring

AO: Arctic Oscillation

CONUS: Continental United States

D-J-F: December-January-February

ENSO: El Niño - Southern Oscillation

EPO: Eastern Pacific Oscillation

M-A: Mid-Atlantic

NE: New England

NAO: North Atlantic Oscillation

NHEMI: Northern Hemisphere

NWP: Numerical Weather Prediction

PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation

QBO: Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

PNA: Pacific-North American pattern

SSTa: Sea-Surface Temperature anomaly

SSW: Sudden Stratospheric Warming

 

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To the extent ENSO ... QBO ... SSTa in the tropical Pacific and the NE coastal waters of CONUS ... sunspots ... PDO ... and the extent of Eurasian cover have any predictive value ... here laid upon the table is the current state of play heading into Winter '22 / '23 as divined from NEWxSFC/s Whirled Headquarters located east of the fall line in VA.

Read more »

Winter '22 / '23 - 22nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Preview

ACY (2-day mixed precip:  1.38")

We/re gearing up for the launch of the 22nd Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest where forecasters predict the season-total snowfall for 25 stations from Raleigh ... NC to Binghamton ... NY to Burlington ... VT to Caribou ... ME.

☼ Everyone is welcome to submit a forecast
☼ Totally free to enter
☼ Prizes

► Window for submitting forecasts will open MON ... 01-NOV-22 @ 12:01 AM EDT at the Contest's web site.

Main announcement with a 'Call for Forecasts' coming late OCT.

Facebook ...
https://www.facebook.com/newxsfc

 

 

 

 

Winter '22 / '23 - Eurasia Snow Cover: SEP

Eurasia/s areal snow cover for SEP-22: ~2,520,000 SQ-KM

- Almost 60% above normal (1,620,000 SQ-KM)
- Ranks 6th during period-of-record (1967 - 2022).
- Highest since 1998 (25 years ago).

The extent of Eurasia/s OCT snow cover has been positively correlated with cold and snowy winter weather in the eastern CONUS so we/re off to a good start.

Data courtesy Rutgers University Global Snow Lab

Winter '22 / '23 - North and West of I-95: Why does snow in the Eastern US always seem fall to the West of I-95?

Are the snow-maker weather systems influenced by the fall line?

 

"This cold-to-warm transition zone is further increased by the presence of the Appalachian Mountains, which are found to the west of the I-95 corridor. This elevation increase starts at the fall line, the geological boundary between the low-level coastal plains and the foothills of the Piedmont.

 

"The fall line is the historical edge of this range mountains and is the point at which the elevation of the land starts increasing. In the short distance between Washington National Airport and Washington Dulles Airport, both near Washington DC, the elevation increases over 300 feet (90 meters)" 

 

More ...

Winter '18 / '19 - The Woolly Bear Caterpillar Guide to Winter Weather Forecasting

It/s that time of year again when long-range wx forecasters scour the bowels looking for ... well ... wadda you say we don/t go there.

More better ... consult the Woolly Bear Caterpillar Guide to Winter Weather Forecasting.

(Lightly edited re-post from USENET news group ne.weather 11-OCT-03)

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In recent weeks ... a spate of news articles have appeared about the woolly bear caterpillar and its legendary ability to foretell the upcoming winter based on the color and width of its black and orange stripes.

With so much good information scattered across so many sources ... there appeared to be a need to compile the forecasting rules.

This handy forecasting guide can be printed and kept inside your coat pocket for easy reference.

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The Woolly Bear Caterpillars Among Us

There is more than one kind of woolly bear caterpillar.  The one you use when forecasting is the banded woolly caterpillar ... which becomes the Isabella moth (Pyrrharctia Isabella) in the spring.  Pictures of the caterpillar and moth can be seen here: Caterpillar Moth

Science is Skeptical

It should come as no surprise ... entomologists pooh-pooh the very idea banded woolly bear caterpillars can predict future events.  These naysayers claim variations in band color and width are evidence of a worm/s age and the fall weather conditions when the worm reached maturity.

Worms exhibiting more black than orange are older and grew in wet conditions.  Worms exhibiting less black than orange are younger and grew in dry conditions.  And therein we find the caterpillar's predictive value. 

Read more »

Winter '22 / '23 - The Strangest Superstitions About Snow In History

Wilson Bently

Snow has "... been used as a basis for everything from miraculous church-building to questionable medical cures, from holy substance to cause of disease and potential breeding-ground for hairy grubs"

"A barefoot run in the first snow of the year is recommended for everything from preventing chilblains in children to frostbite and sore throat. Eating or drinking it, meanwhile, was a cure for many ills, including warts and toothache (and freckles, which needed a "treatment" at the time), and if you had a nosebleed it was a good idea to hold snow at the back of your neck, presumably to give you something else upsetting to think about."

 More ...

Winter '22 / '23 - General Winter Precipitation Forecasting - Jeff Haby

 

More ...

Winter '22 / '23 - Snowmageddon Weather in North America More Influenced by Tropics Than Arctic

"Winter weather patterns in North America are dictated by changes to the polar vortex winds high in the atmosphere, but the most significant cold snaps are more likely influenced by the tropics ..."

"The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters on December 27, 2019, also revealed that, unlike in Europe, the most extreme cold snaps affecting the whole of North America are not most likely to occur after a weak (polar) vortex. Instead, the shape of the vortex and conditions in the tropics were identified as stronger influences of these conditions"

More ...

Winter '21 / '22 - 23nd Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

VT

After FIVE contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least FOUR forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).
Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).

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Best Forecasts by Storm (lowest SUMSQ Error Z-Scores)

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic:  Sum of Squared Errors Z - SUMSQ Z)

SUMSQ Error Z is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error Z - TAE)

TAE Error Z is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall forecast errors at each station.

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic:  R-squared Z - RSQ Z)

RSQ is a measure of the how well the 'forecast' snowfall captured the variability of the 'observed' snowfall (higher the better).

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Forecaster's Skill Score (Forecaster Z-score - NWS ER WFOs Z-score) / ER NWS WFOs Z-Score

Skill score measures forecaster performance against a standard (NWS ER WFOs).  Positive (negative) values indicate better (worse) performance compared to the standard.  0% for NWS does not indicate 'no skill.'

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19 unique forecasters submitted a total of 1,623 station forecasts.
6 forecasters entered all 5 contests.
4 forecasters entered 4 contests.
5 forecasters entered 3 contests.
1 forecasters entered 2 contests.
3 forecasters entered 1 contest.

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Hope to see y'all again next winter!

Winter '21 / '22 - 21st Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

ACY
01-FEB-28

Congratulations to Any.Wx for issuing the best season-total snowfall forecast for Winter '21 / '22.

Complete forecaster verification table at the Contest web site.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_23/season-total/season_total_verification_2122.htm

Forecasters ranked ascending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE).

BLUE ==> 1st Quartile
WHITE ==>  Interquartile range
RED ==> 4th Quartile
ORANGE:  Winter '21 / '22 Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster (winner of  '20 / '21 contest)

The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how much the forecast was an improvement over Period-Of-Record-Normal (PORN).  Skillful forecasts beat PORN.

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Forecasters' stations having the lowest absolute error.

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Winter '21 / '22 ranks 12th among the 18 Contest seasons since Winter '04 / '05 ... the winter when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.

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Season-total snowfall for Winter '21 / 22 for all forecast stations (818") came in 12% below the Period-Of-Record Normal (925").

Station Climo ... Observed Snowfall ... Departure from Normal ... and Percent of Normal Snowfall

DEC snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/01/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

JAN snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/02/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

FEB snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/03/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

MAR snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/04/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

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Season-total snowfall analysis courtesy NOHRSC

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Teleconnections

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PRIZES
1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to Any.Wx/s front door):
... pick of the litter from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
... the august title 'Chief Season-total Snowfall Forecaster' for Winter '22 / '23
... a well-deserved place of honor with past Contest winners

2nd place prize (delivered post-paid right to Shillelagh/s front door):
... second pick at NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

3rd place prize (delivered post-paid right to kevinmyatt/s front door):
... third pick at NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

Prizes winners: please contact (newxsfc [at] comcast [dot] net) with a USPS address.

Winter '21 / '22 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Snowfall Totals

Flat Iron Building ... NYC (1905)

MAR-22 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N). 

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4h and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

Obs reported as 0.05" denote a Trace amount (observed but not measurable)

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MAR Forecast Station Highlights
2 stations at or above normal monthly snowfall.

Biggest Losers
15 stations with less then half their monthly normal snowfall.
ACY ... ORF ... RDU snow observed but not measured (Trace)

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Season-Total-to-Date

MAR P-O-R-N contributes 184" (20%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 925".
MAR-22 observed snowfall:  117" (64% of monthly P-O-R-N; 13% of season-total snowfall)

Image courtesy NOHRSC @ http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

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Teleconnections

 

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DEC snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/01/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

JAN snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/02/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

FEB snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/03/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

Winter '21 / '22 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Snowfall Totals

Somerset County ... PA-Turnpike (c.1940)

FEB-22 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4h and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

Obs reported as 0.05" denote a Trace (observed but not measurable)

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FEB Forecast Station Highlights
5 stations at or above normal monthly snowfall.

Biggest Losers
12 stations with less then half their monthly normal snowfall.
DCA ... RIC ... and ORF snow observed but not measured (trace)
RDU got skunked.

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Season-Total-to-Date

FEB  P-O-R-N contributes 262" (28%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 929".
FEB-22 observed snowfall:  185" (71% of monthly P-O-R-N; 20% of season-total snowfall)

Image courtesy NOHRSC @ http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/01/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

JAN snowfall totals:
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/02/winter-21-22-season-total-snowfall.html

Winter '21 / '22 - Regular Season: Interim Standings #3

New Hartford ... CT
14-Feb-1899

After 5 contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule  … forecasters who have entered at least 4 forecasts are included in Interim Standings #3.

Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '21 / '22 contest snow storms (direct link)

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (i.e., standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged and ranked to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.

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Interim Standings #1
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/02/winter-21-22-regular-season-interim.html

Interim Standings #2
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/02/winter-21-22-regular-season-interim2.html

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NOTE:  MitchelVolk's 'Previous Rank(s)' should read '2,2 '

Winter '21 / '22 - Snow Storm #5: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

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Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 Forecasts
Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.

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Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Snowfall by Station

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Forecast Skill Score measured against NWS ER WFOs
Positive skill values indicate a forecast/s improvement over the NWS forecasts.
Bias is the arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and the average Observed snowfall.

Winter '21 / '22 - Snow Storm #5: Preliminary STP Verification

Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for FRI and SAT from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins.  Excellent coverage and reporting.

HYA
STP estimated from PNSBOX reports using inverse distance weighting of vicinity reports within 5 miles of the station.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse_distance_weighting

Trace amounts for SAT derived from METARs.

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Snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

Read more »

Winter '21 / '22 - Snow Storm #5: The Forecasts!

26-FEB-1965

Rookie      1
Intern      1
Journey      -
Senior      9
GOVT      1
PWSP      -
TOT      12

Forecaster table ranked ascending by storm-total precipitation (STP)

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE and GREY STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

Heaviest snowfall (+8") consensus along and to the right of BTV ... CON ... BOS ... ORH ... ALB ... BTV.  Lollypop expected at ALB.

Teleconnections

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_23/storms/storm5_forecasts_25FEB22.htm

Winter '21 / '22 - Snow Storm #5: RAW Forecasts

BOS
26-FEB-69

 
Click through on Read more ...

Read more »

Winter '21 / '22 - Snow Storm #5: Call for Forecasts!

Mount Washington ... NH
02-25-53

Rich plume of moisture streaming NE from the Gulf of Mexico forecast to engage with strong arctic HIGH anchored over SE Canada through the forecast period offering up a decent end-of-winter contest-worthy snow storm.

 - Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

- Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'

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Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall

Deadline for entries: 10:00 PM EST ... THU ... 24-FEB-22

Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST ... FRI ... 25-FEB-22
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST on the day when flakes stop accumulating.

You also get the chance to see how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region Weather Forecast Offices. Turns out they/ve been fairly easy to beat!

Who Can Enter
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all other weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters ... astrologers ... along with any other universally recognized class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras ... registered Nostradamuses ... non-violent megalomaniacs ... woolly-bear caterpillars or their Agents ... pest detectives ... ne.wx NG survivors; riders on the StormVista ... refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather free agents ... including self-imposed exiles from Eastern Wx ... and of course ... meteorologists.

Read more »

Winter '21 / '22 - Regular Season Interim Standings #2

Dock Square
Kennebunkport ... ME (c.1900)

After 4 contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule  … forecasters who have entered at least 3 forecasts are included in Interim Standings #2.

Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '21 / '22 contest snow storms (direct link)

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (i.e., standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.

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Interim Standings #1
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2022/02/winter-21-22-regular-season-interim.html