Sunday, February 27, 2022

Winter '21 / '22 - Snow Storm #5: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank


Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 Forecasts
Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.


Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Snowfall by Station


Forecast Skill Score measured against NWS ER WFOs
Positive skill values indicate a forecast/s improvement over the NWS forecasts.
Bias is the arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and the average Observed snowfall.


Anonymous said...

How much could the USA save if they just disbanded the NWS and got their forecasts from Don Sutherland?

TQ said...

you got that right and it's year after year to boot ...

Shillelagh said...

Nice contest. Congrats Don S. Thx TQ!

Don said...

Thanks all for the kind words.