Regular Season Contest Overview
DC 1917 |
Here/s the sequence of events whenever there/s a contest-worthy snow storm.
A 'Call for Forecasts' is made ~24 hours before the deadline for entries. The deadline is usually 10:00 PM ET the day before snowfall is expected.
The 'verification period' begins @midnight on the day snow is expected to begin over any forecast station. The period continues until snow has stopped falling over the entire forecast area or a hard deadline for the Contest/s end has been set.
Once the snow has stopped and the NWS has reported the snowfall amounts in their daily climatological bulletins ... a 'preliminary verification' data table with the storm-total snowfall amounts is posted to the web log. These numbers are subject to challenge and / or modification for ~24 hours ... if they are found later to be in error and / or new information becomes available.
All forecasts are then verified and ranked. The forecaster with the smallest sum of squared-errors (SUMSQ) is the winner. Storm summary statistics and individual station forecast results are posted to the Contest/s web page. Forecasters are notified by e-mail when the final results are posted.
Summary
Day 1 - Call for Forecasts
Day 2 - Deadline - 10:00 PM Eastern (edited: 15-NOV-18)
Day 3 - Snow happens. Forecasts posted to web site. Forecast summary posted to web log.
Day 4 - Preliminary snowfall totals posted to web log ... if storm duration is one day.
Day 5 - Verified forecasts and Final Results posted to web site. Brief storm wrap-up posted to web log.
Complete contest rules and more information here.
A 'Call for Forecasts' is made ~24 hours before the deadline for entries. The deadline is usually 10:00 PM ET the day before snowfall is expected.
The 'verification period' begins @midnight on the day snow is expected to begin over any forecast station. The period continues until snow has stopped falling over the entire forecast area or a hard deadline for the Contest/s end has been set.
Once the snow has stopped and the NWS has reported the snowfall amounts in their daily climatological bulletins ... a 'preliminary verification' data table with the storm-total snowfall amounts is posted to the web log. These numbers are subject to challenge and / or modification for ~24 hours ... if they are found later to be in error and / or new information becomes available.
All forecasts are then verified and ranked. The forecaster with the smallest sum of squared-errors (SUMSQ) is the winner. Storm summary statistics and individual station forecast results are posted to the Contest/s web page. Forecasters are notified by e-mail when the final results are posted.
Summary
Day 1 - Call for Forecasts
Day 2 - Deadline - 10:00 PM Eastern (edited: 15-NOV-18)
Day 3 - Snow happens. Forecasts posted to web site. Forecast summary posted to web log.
Day 4 - Preliminary snowfall totals posted to web log ... if storm duration is one day.
Day 5 - Verified forecasts and Final Results posted to web site. Brief storm wrap-up posted to web log.
Complete contest rules and more information here.
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