CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
HM: TQ
Climo: 5th place

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Saturday, December 5, 2009

Regular Season Contest Overview


DC 1917
Here/s the sequence of events whenever there/s a contest-worthy snow storm.

A 'Call for Forecasts' is made ~24 hours before the deadline for entries. The deadline is usually 10:30 PM Eastern the day before snowfall is expected.

The 'verification period' begins @midnight on the day snow is expected to begin over any forecast station. The period continues until snow has stopped falling over the entire forecast area or a hard deadline for the Contest/s end has been set.

Once the snow has stopped and the NWS has reported the snowfall amounts in their daily climatological bulletins...a 'preliminary verification' data table with the storm-total snowfall amounts is posted to the web log. These numbers are subject to challenge and / or modification for ~24 hours...if they are found later to be in error and / or new information becomes available.

All forecasts are then verified and ranked. The forecaster with the smallest sum of squared-errors (SUMSQ) is the winner.  Storm summary statistics and individual station forecast results are posted to the Contest/s web page. Forecasters are notified by e-mail when the final results are posted.

Summary
Day 1 - Call for Forecasts
Day 2 - Deadline - 10:30 PM Eastern
Day 3 - Snow happens.  Forecasts posted to web site.  Forecast summary posted to web log.
Day 4 - Preliminary snowfall totals posted to web log...if storm duration is one day.
Day 5 - Verified forecasts and Final Results posted to web site. Brief storm wrap-up posted to web log.

Complete contest rules and more information here.

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