CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 11-APR-20 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

Snow Storm #1 (01-DEC-19)
FINAL Results here

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19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
20th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here
Forecaster verification table here

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Winter '11 / '12 - Meteorological Winter - Month Three

CAR alone enjoyed a 'normal' snowfall this winter.  No other station came even close to normal.

March is the last month for the 'season-total' snowfall forecast contest.  Latest round of long range progs hold little hope for a late rally.



Climo columns are the summed monthly totals for DEC...JAN...and FEB.


Teleconnections for FEB (top) and meteorological winter (bottom).

Saturday, March 3, 2012

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Final Results

Springfield MA
1st Place - donsutherland1
SUMSQ: 76.05
SUMSQ Z: -1.079
STP: 6.35 (4)
TAE: 20.75 (1)
AAE: 1.60 (1)

2nd Place - Brad Yehl
SUMSQ: 109.66
SUMSQ Z: -0.651
STP: 18.90 (9)
TAE: 26.50 (2)
AAE: 2.04 (5)

3rd Place - TQ
SUMSQ: 117.34
SUMSQ Z: -0.553
STP: 8.05 (6)
TAE: 30.95 (4)
AAE: 2.06 (6)

Honorable mention - ilibov
SUMSQ: 125.21
SUMSQ Z: -0.453
STP: 9.20 (7)
TAE: 33.00 (7)
AAE: 1.74 (2)
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SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

Verified forecasts and storm summary at the Contest/s web site.

Friday, March 2, 2012

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Wednesday and Thursday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS...as of 4 PM Friday.

Based on PNSBOX and NOHRSC...no evidence for any accumulation at HYA.  ORH value came from PNSBOX b/c no report was available from climate bulletins.   ORH STP may be revised if new data become available.

Several stations in the data table do not have SN:H2O reported b/c their liquid totals included mixed precipitation.

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Four new daily records.
WED...29-FEB-12
BDL - 4.4" (4.4"; 2008)
ALB - 4" (0.8"; 2008)
ORH - 4" (3.1"; 1968)

THU...01-MAR-12
PWM - 13" (9.3"; 2005)

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Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary Saturday evening.

Thursday, March 1, 2012