CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 11-APR-20 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

Snow Storm #1 (01-DEC-19)
FINAL Results here

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19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
20th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here
Forecaster verification table here

Friday, March 30, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Coastal Teaser: #3

UPDATE:
SAT ... 31-MAR-18 @ 10 PM EDT

Nothing contest-worthy about this event ATTM.

Slightest chance the 00z ... 01-APR-18 NWP runs will suggest otherwise ==> possible SUN AM  'Call for Forecasts'.

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Snow Storm #9?

Should the present NWP trend continue ...
Call for Forecasts:  SAT ... 31-MAR-18
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EDT ... SUN ... 01-APR-18
Verification period:  12:01 AM EST ... MON ... 02-APR-18 till TBD

Watch this space.

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Regular Season Interim Standings: 6

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least SIX forecasts are included in interim standings #6.

Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site here (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '17 / '18 contest snow storms here (direct link)

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.

Similar idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.

Saturday, March 24, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #8: FINAL Results

Forecasters' station verifications and the storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

     
 1st - Brad Yehl   
 SUMSQ:278  
 SUMSQ Z:-1.279  
 STP:28.9 (3) 
 TAE:65.1 (1) 
 AAE:2.50 (1) 
     
 2nd - Shillelagh   
 SUMSQ:380  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.845  
 STP:43.4 (5) 
 TAE:73.7 (2) 
 AAE:2.95 (2) 
     
 3rd - donsutherland1   
 SUMSQ:483  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.408  
 STP:64.9 (9) 
 TAE:90.3 (5) 
 AAE:3.34 (4) 
     
 HM - iralibov   
 SUMSQ:489  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.383  
 STP:60.1 (7) 
 TAE:87.3 (3) 
 AAE:3.23 (3) 
     

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Dotted blue line below (above) solid red line ==> under (over) forecast

Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters

Friday, March 23, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #8: Preliminary STP Verifications

Table of preliminary storm-total snowfall by station for WED and THU from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) and ... SAUS41 (METAR) bulletins.

Exceptions:  none

SLR not available for some stations reporting measureable snowfall b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing at least Trace - 24 (89%) [corrected]

Given a forecast station observed measurable snowfall ...
Stations observing at least:
4" - 10 (42%)
8" - 5 (21%)
12" - 2 (8%)
16" - 1 (4)

Melt-water
ISP - 1.28"
MDT - 1.13"
PHL - 1.03"
JFK - 0.91"

Max precipitation:  ISP - 1.28"

New daily records:
21-MAR-18 (7)
ISP - 14" (1.8"; 2013)
ABE - 13.2" (4.3"; 1964)
MDT - 11.9" (7.5"; 1964)
JFK - 8.4" (0.8"; 1993)
EWR - 7.9" (5.3"; 1958)
PHL - 6.7" (4.7"; 1932)
IAD - 4.8" (2.3"; 1964)

22-MAR-18 (1)
ISP - 4.4" (3"; 1992)

SFC analysis:  03z ... 22-MAR-18

METAR KISP 220256Z 01017G28KT 1/8SM R06/2000V3000FT +SN FG VV003 00/00 A2964 RMK
AO2 PK WND 03033/0231 SLP036 ==> SNINCR 5/12 <== P0023 60040 T00000000 51001 =

5" / hour!

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Please report errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL Results post expected SAT evening ... 24-MAR-18

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Regular Season Interim Standings: 5

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least FIVE forecasts are included in the interim standings.

Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site here (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '17 / '18 contest snow storms here (direct link)

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.

Similar idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #8: The Forecasts!

Rookie    -
Intern    1
Journey    -
Senior    12
GOVT    1
PWSP    -
TOT  14

All forecasts posted to the Contest/s web site. (direct link)

Forecasts ranked by their verification period storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE = 25th percentile
RED >= 75th percentile
White STP and 4cast cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile

NWS ER WFOs (GOVT) forecasts derived from public issuances current at the deadline.

Heaviest snowfall (>= 10") consensus along and to the right of PHL - EWR - BDR - ISP - JFK - PHL .  Snow cone expected at EWR.

AO regime change with a cursory assist by the NAO.

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #8: RAW FORECASTS

Here

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #8: Front-end +TSSN

Blacksburg ... VA
INVOF Roanoke (ROA)

METAR KBCB 210135Z AUTO 05007KT 1/2SM +VCTSSN OVC006 00/00 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE

Monday, March 19, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #8: Call for Forecasts!

19-MAR-56
Carmine St ... NYC
Not the 1st time the progs indicated an out to sea solution in the medium range ... then hang a hard left and roar up the coast as its VT approaches.

Should Snow Storm #8 come to pass ... MAR will have at least three contest-worthy snow storms for only the third time in NEWxSFC/s history.

Other years with three MAR snow storms happened in 2001 and 2014 (return period 9.5 years; probability during any given winter:  11%). 

The forecast contest for Snow Storm #8 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

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Forecast element:  each station's verification period snowfall

Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EDT ... TUE ... 20-MAR-18
Verification period begins:  12:01 AM EDT ... WED ... 21-MAR-18
Verification period ends:  11:59 PM EDT ... THU ... 22-MAR-18

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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here.  http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.  See how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region Weather Forecast Offices.

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 If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).


NEWxSFC/s email client is permanently off-line.
Forecasters may no longer have a copy of their forecast emailed to them.
Some are getting thorugh.  Some are not.
The Contest/s email address newx (at) newx-forecasts (dot) com remains unreachable.
Apologies for the degraded service which is beyond my control.

Saturday, March 17, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #7: FINAL Results

Forecasters' station verifications and the storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

     
 1st - iralibov   
 SUMSQ:328  
 SUMSQ Z:-1.379  
 STP:31.6 (5) 
 TAE:66.3 (1) 
 AAE:2.46 (1) 
     
 2nd - donsutherland1   
 SUMSQ:365  
 SUMSQ Z:-1.041  
 STP:29.7 (2) 
 TAE:67.0 (2) 
 AAE:2.48 (2) 
     
 3rd - TQ   
 SUMSQ:394  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.787  
 STP:47.5 (8) 
 TAE:75.0 (4) 
 AAE:2.78 (4) 
     
 HM - Brad Yehl   
 SUMSQ:400  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.735  
 STP:45.8 (7) 
 TAE:67.8 (3) 
 AAE:2.51 (3) 
     

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Dotted blue line below (above) solid red line ==> under (over) forecast

Snowfall analysis courtesy National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html

Friday, March 16, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #7: Preliminary STP Verifications

Table of preliminary storm-total snowfall by station for WED and THU from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) and ... SAUS41 (METAR) bulletins.

Exceptions:  none

SLR not available for some stations reporting measureable snowfall b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing at least:
Trace - 27 (100%)
4" - 14 (52%)
8" - 10 (37%)
12" - 6 (22%)
16" - 3 (11)
20" - 2 (7%)

Melt-water
ORH - 1.6"
PWM - 1.28"
BTV - 1.19"
BGR, BOS - 1.16"

Max precipitation:  ORH - 1.6"

New daily records:  13-MAR-18
ORH - 21.8" (14.8"; 1993)
BOS - 14.5" (12.3"; 1993)
PVD - 9.5"  (7"; 1993)

SFC analysis:  15z ... 13-MAR-18

13-MAR-93:  the last Storm of the Century for the 20th century.

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Please report errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL Results post expected SAT evening ... 17-MAR-18

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Regular Season Interim Standings: 4


Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least FOUR forecasts are included in the interim standings.

Complete interim statistics table and chart at the Contest/s web site here (direct link)
Forecaster statistics for Winter '17 / '18 contest snow storms here (direct link)

---
SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized (standardized) with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.

Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.

Monday, March 12, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #7: The Forecasts!

UPDATE:  17-MAR-18 @ 12:40 PM EDT
Corrected 'Consensus Forecasts and Extremes' chart.

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Rookie   -
Intern   1
Journey  -
Senior   8
GOVT    1
PWSP    -
TOT  10

All forecasts posted to the Contest/s web site. (direct link)


Forecasts ranked by their verification period storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE = 25th percentile
RED >= 75th percentile
White STP and 4cast cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile

NWS ER WFOs (GOVT) forecasts derived from public issuances current at the deadline.

Heaviest snowfall (>= 12") consensus along and to the right of CAR - BGR - PWM - BOS - PVD - ORH - PWM - CAR.  Snow cone expected at BGR.

AO FTW! (again).

Sunday, March 11, 2018

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #7: RAW FORECASTS

Here

Winter '17 / '18 - Snow Storm #6: FINAL Results

Forecasters' station verifications and the storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

     
 1st - Donald Rosenfeld   
 SUMSQ:200  
 SUMSQ Z:-1.171  
 STP:16.1 (8) 
 TAE:53.2 (1) 
 AAE:2.22 (1) 
     
 2nd - Herb @MAWS   
 SUMSQ:220  
 SUMSQ Z:-1.005  
 STP:4.7 (4) 
 TAE:53.3 (2) 
 AAE:2.32 (3) 
     
 3rd - NWS ER WFOs   
 SUMSQ:249  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.772  
 STP:11.1 (6) 
 TAE:56.4 (3) 
 AAE:2.45 (5) 
     
 HM - Roger Smith   
 SUMSQ:253  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.745  
 STP:22.9 (10) 
 TAE:58.4 (5) 
 AAE:2.24 (2) 
     

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Dotted blue line below (above) solid red line ==> under (over) forecast

Snowfall analysis courtesy National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html