CONTEST STATUS - Updated: FRI ... 14-JUL-17 @ 8:30 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Season starts when the first flakes start a'flyin'

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17th Annual 'Season-total'
Entries accepted between 01-NOV-17 and 30-NOV-17
Verification period: 01-DEC-17 through 31-MAR-18

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Saturday, October 21, 2017

Winter '17 / '18 - Outlooks

Thread updated periodically as new outlooks and forecasts are issued from a variety of credible sources.
 
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Saturday, October 7, 2017

Winter '17 / '18 - Correlation of Eurasia's OCT Snow Cover and Season-total Snowfall in NE and M-A Regions

The correlation between the areal coverage of Eurasia/s OCT snow cover and season-total snowfall has become broad-brushed conventional wisdom (CW) following the innovative research by AER climatologist Dr. Judah Cohen.

But ... just how well does the CW hold up for NEWxSFC/s forecast stations across New England (NE) and the mid-Atlantic (M-A) regions?

To find out ... monthly period-of-record areal snow cover data for Eurasia from Rutgers Global Snow Lab were correlated with season-total snowfall data for 27 of NEWxSFC/s stations.

A positive and statistically significant correlation means the greater the areal snow cover over Eurasia in OCT ... the greater the season-total snowfall for the following winter.

An Excel radar chart shown below depicts the results of the analysis.


DISCUSSION:  Stations between the inner and outer rings have a positive correlation coefficient statistically different than zero.  The coefficients range between 0.289 (CAR) and 0.424 (ORH).   Correlation values in this range are classified generally as 'low' (moderate:  >= 0.5 - 0.7; strong:  >= 0.7 - 0.9).  Even though the correlations are weak ... they can still provide useful information for seasonal snowfall forecasts.

The analysis also showed other significant correlations of interest.
- RIC/s season-total snowfall had a positive correlation with Eurasia/s AUG areal snow cover.
Eurasia/s AUG-17 snow over was well below normal ==> lower season-total snowfall @RIC this winter.

- NYC/s season-total snowfall had a negative correlation with Eurasia's JUN areal snow cover.
Eurasia/s JUN-17 snow cover was above normal ==> lower season-total snowfall @NYC this winter.

There may be other interesting artifacts lurking in the data when the full analysis is completed.

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FINDINGS:  data analysis supports the CW for NE forecast stations but not so much across the M-A.

Controls for ENSO state and / or other teleconnection indices ... such as AO ... NAO ... MEI ... PDO ... etc. have not been applied.