CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Sunday, October 29, 2017

Winter '17 / '18 - Eurasia Snow Cover - OCT Preview

Winter '17 / '18 - Correlation of Eurasia's OCT Snow Cover and Season-total Snowfall in NE and M-A Regions 

Winter '17 / '18 - First Contact

Post-frontal ... elevation snows INVOF UVM associated with SFC LOWs

Boone ... NC (3146' MSL)
KTNB 291615Z AUTO 30013G25KT 4SM -SN SCT008 BKN014 BKN020 02/01

Richlands ... VA (2653' MSL)
KJFZ 291555Z AUTO 32004KT 3SM -SN SCT004 BKN007 OVC014 00/00 A2972 RMK AO2 T00011001

Wise county ... VA (2684' MSL)
KLNP 291555Z AUTO 31004KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC003 00/00

Hot Springs ... VA (3793' MSL)
KHSP 291555Z AUTO 29014KT M1/4SM -SN OVC003 02/02

Bluefield ... WV (2856' MSL)
KBLF 291552Z AUTO 31008KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR BKN006 OVC012 00/M01

Bedford county ... PA (1161' MSL)
KHMZ 291555Z AUTO 32006KT 5SM -SN OVC010 07/06

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Saturday, October 7, 2017

Winter '17 / '18 - Correlation of Eurasia's OCT Snow Cover and Season-total Snowfall in NE and M-A Regions

The correlation between the areal coverage of Eurasia/s OCT snow cover and season-total snowfall has become broad-brushed conventional wisdom (CW) following the innovative research by AER climatologist Dr. Judah Cohen.

But ... just how well does the CW hold up for NEWxSFC/s forecast stations across New England (NE) and the mid-Atlantic (M-A) regions?

To find out ... monthly period-of-record areal snow cover data for Eurasia from Rutgers Global Snow Lab were correlated with season-total snowfall data for 27 of NEWxSFC/s stations.

A positive and statistically significant correlation means the greater the areal snow cover over Eurasia in OCT ... the greater the season-total snowfall for the following winter.

An Excel radar chart shown below depicts the results of the analysis.

DISCUSSION:  Stations between the inner and outer rings have a positive correlation coefficient statistically different than zero.  The coefficients range between 0.289 (CAR) and 0.424 (ORH).   Correlation values in this range are classified generally as 'low' (moderate:  >= 0.5 - 0.7; strong:  >= 0.7 - 0.9).  Even though the correlations are weak ... they can still provide useful information for seasonal snowfall forecasts.

The analysis also showed other significant correlations of interest.
- RIC/s season-total snowfall had a positive correlation with Eurasia/s AUG areal snow cover.
Eurasia/s AUG-17 snow over was well below normal ==> lower season-total snowfall @RIC this winter.

- NYC/s season-total snowfall had a negative correlation with Eurasia's JUN areal snow cover.
Eurasia/s JUN-17 snow cover was above normal ==> lower season-total snowfall @NYC this winter.

There may be other interesting artifacts lurking in the data when the full analysis is completed.

FINDINGS:  data analysis supports the CW for NE forecast stations but not so much across the M-A.

Controls for ENSO state and / or other teleconnection indices ... such as AO ... NAO ... MEI ... PDO ... etc. have not been applied.