CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SUN ... 10-JAN-21 @ 3:45 PM EST

Winter '20 / '21 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
22nd Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest

Snow Storm #2
Synoptiscope in VCP 32

Snow Storm #1
FINAL Results here

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20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Deadline for entries has passed.
The Forecasts! here
DEC Snowfall Totals here

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Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

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19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Winter '19 / '20 - 19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

Congratulations to Herb @MAWS for his 1st Place finish.
Herb also placed first in '03 / '04 and '09 / '10.

Forecasters ranked by their Total Absolute Error (TAE)
The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how well the forecaster did compared to climatology [(Period-of-Record Normal (PORN)].  The most skillful forecasts beat climatology 

RED ==> 75th percentile
WHITE ==>  interquartile range (>25th & < 75th percentiles)
BLUE ==> 25th percentile

Forecasters' stations with the lowest absolute error

Friday, April 10, 2020

Thursday, April 9, 2020

Winter '19 / '20 - 19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Preliminary STP Verification

Preliminary sum-total season snowfalls for the verification period 01-DEC-19 though 31-MAR-20 collected from monthly climate bulletins (CLMxxx; CXUS51 ... CXUS52).


One forecast station (4% of all stations) with bonus season-total snowfalls [more than Period-Of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N)].
Rank ordered descending by percent of P-O-R-N.

Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Interquartile range (< 75th & > 25th percentiles)
Red ==> 25th percentile

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL results expected NLT SAT evening.

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Winter '19 / '20 monthly snow totals
DEC:  Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals
JAN:  Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals
FEB:  Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals
MAR:  Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Winter '19 / '20 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

MAR-20 snowfall summary by forecast station.
Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).


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Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 25th percentile

Obs reported as 0.05" implies Trace

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MAR Forecast Station Highlights
No station observed more than 100% of its monthly normal snowfall.

Biggest losers (0")
PHL
BWI
ACY
DCA
RIC
SBY
RDU
ORF

P-O-R-N v. Observed (less than 15%)
PVD:  (6.8'' v. 0.4'')
IAD:  (3.5'' v. 0.05'')
NYC:  (4.9'' v. 0.05'')
EWR:  (5.1'' v. 0.05'')
BDR:  (5.5'' v. 0.05'')
ABE:  (6'' v. 0.05'')
MDT:  (6.5'' v. 0.05'')
BOS:  (8'' v. 0.05'')

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Season-total

MAR P-O-R-N contributes 184" (20%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 929".
MAR-20 observed snowfall:  66" (36% of P-O-R-N; 7% of season-total snowfall)

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Teleconnections
No contest-worthy storms in MAR.

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Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals
Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals
Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals