CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED ... 13-DEC-17 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Snow Storm #1
Synoptiscope in VCP32

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Saturday, January 25, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: Final Results


























SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error (number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #3 here.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Tuesday and Wednesday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.  Good coverage and reporting.

SBY 3" STP reported in PNSAKQ.

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Ten new daily records.

TUE...21-JAN-14
PHL - 13.5" (3.4"; 1917)
EWR - 10" (4.5"; 2011)
ISP - 9.2" (5"; 2000)
IAD - 8.5" (3.2"; 2001)
JFK - 6.8" (5.8"; 2001)
BWI - 5.1" (2"; 1982)
DCA - 3.8" (3.5"; 1982)
ACY - 2.2" (1.8"; 1982)
RIC - 2" (1.8"; 1918)
ORF - 2" (1.4"; 1994)

Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

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Final results delayed until Saturday evening.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: The Forecasts

15 forecasters
Rookies:  1 (Welcome BTRWx!)
Interns:  2
Journeymen:  1
Senior:  11

382 station forecasts.


Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.


Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for a mid-Atlantic and coastal NE event with the lollypop expected at HYA.



The AO and PNA teleconnections again proving their importance.
Flat lined NAO MIA again.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Monday, January 20, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: Call for Forecasts

DC Knickerbocker Storm
27-JAN-22
UPDATE: corrected dates for entry deadline and start of verification period.

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Big changes in the overnight progs present opportunity for another contest and a short deadline for entries.

Even though QPF is somewhat skimpy, Arctic air will provide ideal environment for high-fluff factor and contest-worthy snows.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST MON...20-JAN-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST TUE...21-JAN-14
Verification ends:  when the snow stops falling

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Sunday, January 5, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #2 - Final Results

1st - donsutherland1
SUMSQ:
99.9

SUMSQ Z:
-1.269

STP:
16.1
 (7)
TAE:
43.1
 (1)
AAE:
1.80
 (1)



2nd - Herb@MAWS
SUMSQ:
130.2

SUMSQ Z:
-1.021

STP:
20.6
 (9)
TAE:
47.0
 (2)
AAE:
1.96
 (2)



3rd - weatherT
SUMSQ:
173.4

SUMSQ Z:
-0.667

STP:
10.8
 (6)
TAE:
53.2
 (4)
AAE:
2.13
 (4)



HM - Brad Yehl
SUMSQ:
186.2

SUMSQ Z:
-0.562

STP:
3.5
 (2)
TAE:
56.8
 (5)
AAE:
2.27
 (5)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #2 here.

Saturday, January 4, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #2 - Preliminary Verification



Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Thursday and Friday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.  Good coverage and reporting.

An apparent SN:H20 outlier at BOS; however, vicinity reports suggest STP is accurate.

No climate snowfall data for CON reported on SAT...03-JAN.  DAY2 snowfall estimated at 3.35" based on 0.18 precipitation at SN:H20 of ~18-to-1 (DAY2 average SN:H20 for PWM and ORH)

SBY 2.75" STP estimated from PNSPHI vicinity reports at SELBYVILLE (4")...DELMAR (4.5)...LAUREL (5.1")...BRIDGEVILLE (6.1")...KGED precipitation (0.45")...and SBY precipitation (0.21") and National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center  - Interactive Snow Information.

Twelve new daily records.
Back-to-back records at ACY...EWR...ISP...and JFK

THU...02-JAN-14
BOS - 10.6" (8"; 1904)
ALB - 7.1" (6.8"; 1987)
ISP - 4.7" (3"; 2010)
ACY - 3.7" (1.1"; 1962)
EWR - 3.2" (2"; 1978)
IAD - 3" (2"; 1978)
JFK - 2.4" (1.1"; 1984)

FRI...03-JAN-14
ISP - 6.5" (2.1"; 2010)
EWR - 5.6" (1.2"; 1981)
JFK - 5.5" (1.2"; 1988)
PHL - 3.4" (1.5"; 1988)
ACY - 2.8" (0.4"; 1988)

Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results available SUN evening.

Thursday, January 2, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #2: The Forecasts!

13 forecasters
Rookies:  0
Interns:  2
Journeymen:  1
Senior:  10

319 station forecasts.


Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.


Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for a southern NE event.


Near-blizzard conditions and heavy snowfall expected, yet -NAO is MIA again.
The AO and PNA teleconnections again proving their importance.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

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Corrected to remove duplicate forecasts.
Web site forecasts updated...too.