CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED ... 13-DEC-17 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Snow Storm #1
Synoptiscope in VCP32

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Tuesday and Wednesday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.  Good coverage and reporting.

SBY 3" STP reported in PNSAKQ.

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Ten new daily records.

TUE...21-JAN-14
PHL - 13.5" (3.4"; 1917)
EWR - 10" (4.5"; 2011)
ISP - 9.2" (5"; 2000)
IAD - 8.5" (3.2"; 2001)
JFK - 6.8" (5.8"; 2001)
BWI - 5.1" (2"; 1982)
DCA - 3.8" (3.5"; 1982)
ACY - 2.2" (1.8"; 1982)
RIC - 2" (1.8"; 1918)
ORF - 2" (1.4"; 1994)

Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

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Final results delayed until Saturday evening.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

BDR is 6.7.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx

TQ said...

Thx for the report.
BLUF: 6.7"

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Initial 5.7" STP value came from BDR's daily CLI bulletins.

OTOH, PNS and CF6 from OKX carry 6.7" STP.

The larger STP boosts SLR to 30:1 from 26:1.

PVD SLR 32:1
BOS SLR 30:1
Vicinity reports in line with larger BDR's SLR.

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BDR's STP (corrected): 6.7"

Anonymous said...

My results will be quite bizarre, I expect to finish high in best and worst forecasts and could be nearly last in error squares despite nailing the max snowfall at PHL. The rest was mainly LOL.

Surprised BWI only 5.1 as per many comments on Am Wx about higher amounts all around there. But it is what it is. -- RS

TQ said...

BWI's SLR was 12.1. Low by comparison to RIC (15), DCA, (21), and PHL (14)

Adjusting BWI's STP (0.42 liquid) to an SLR of 15 produces a 7.1" snowfall. This value is in line with vicinity reports of 7.2" from Severn, MD (~2 mi S of BWI) and 7" from '1 N BWI' in the PNS.

The impact on ranking Storm #3 forecasts is minor (place 6 and 7 flip) if an adjusted value is used to verify BWI; however...everyone's Z-Score moves a little.

Inclined to leave BWI STP as is b/c it is what is is.

Thoughts?

Anonymous said...

I'd leave as is...otherwise its the old slippery slope. Either way I'm ok...

- Shillelagh

Anonymous said...

Yeah, no problems, just saying it seemed low, but lots of fun as always. -- RS