CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 11-APR-20 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

Snow Storm #1 (01-DEC-19)
FINAL Results here

---
19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

---
Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
20th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

---
18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here
Forecaster verification table here

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #2 - Update 4

Incoming!

 
Deep layer Easter easterlies.
 
 
PV displacement
 
Split vortices.
 
---
Major SSW event has begun!
 
 

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #2 - Update 3

ECMWF continues its forecast for a SSW event in the near-term.

Monday, March 23, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #2 - Update 2

Complete break down of the Polar vortex at month's end.
Deep ... deep layer wind reversal (easterlies up and down the Polar atmosphere) 
 

Prediction:  cold spring in the east.

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #2

ECMWF predicts a reversal by displacement of the Polar vortex beginning 24-MAR-15 ...


... and a deep ... icy trough INVOF Baffin Bay.
 
mid-to-late April could turn out quite interesting.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals

Monthly station snowfall summary for FEB-15.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.


Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile
 
---
Teleconnection Indexes
AO:  +1.043
NAO:  +1.32
PNA:  +0.49
PDO:  +2.30 (monthly record)
QBO:  -28.62 (monthly record)
MEI:  +0.468 (JAN-FEB)

Monday, March 9, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Interim Standings: 5

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least FIVE forecasts are included in these interim standings.


---
Complete interim statistics table and charts at the Contest/s web site here.
All verified forecast statistics from all forecasters for all Winter '14 / '15 contest storms here.

---
SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings.

If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.

Saturday, March 7, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #7: FINAL Results

Full forecast verifications and summary for Storm #7 at the Contest/s web site.

     
 1st - Brad Yehl 
 SUMSQ:58.98  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.763  
 STP:14.3 (4) 
 TAE:24.8 (1) 
 AAE:1.08 (1) 
     
 2nd - Herb@MAWS 
 SUMSQ:69.13  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.689  
 STP:15.1 (7) 
 TAE:27.9 (2) 
 AAE:1.27 (3) 
     
 3rd - donsutherland1 
 SUMSQ:71.2  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.674  
 STP:8.0 (1) 
 TAE:30.6 (4) 
 AAE:1.22 (2) 
     
 HM - Donald Rosenfeld 
 SUMSQ:81.4  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.599  
 STP:18.9 (8) 
 TAE:28.2 (3) 
 AAE:1.28 (4) 
     

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

---



---
Click images to enlarge.

Friday, March 6, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #7: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for THU from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.

Good coverage and reporting.

SBY/s STP interpolated from PNSAKQ vicinity reports.

---
Six new daily snowfall records
THU ... 05-MAR-15
IAD - 9.5" (1.0"; 2001)
ACY - 7.0" (0.3"; 1960)
PVD - 6.3" (3.8"; 1931)
ISP - 6.3" (1.0"; 1993)
DCA - 4.8" (4.4"; 1888)
BDR - 4.0" (1.3"; 1981)

Record daily precipitation at ACY (2.4")

---
Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results SAT evening.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #7: The Forecasts!

Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 9
TOT 11


Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

---

Heaviest snowfall (+6") consensus along and to the right of a line from PHL - ACY - DCA - IAD - BWI - PHL

---

Opposite day.

 ---
 Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #7: Call for Forecasts!

ACY Boardwalk - 1928
Pattern change may be coming but not before  there's another contest-worthy snow storm. 

Real mess of mixed precipitation types and Arctic temperatures in the offing will make for a challenging late-season forecast.

Contest for Storm #7 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

---
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST ... WED ... 04-MAR-15

Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST ... THU ... 05-MAR-15
Verification ends:  when the snow stops falling

---
Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here.

Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.

---
As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).