CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED ... 13-DEC-17 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Snow Storm #1
Synoptiscope in VCP32

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Winter '15 / '16 - Snowfall Totals (29-DEC-15)

Snowfall totals for the almost contest-worthy event of 29-DEC-15.

PWM  7.0"
BGR  6.9"
CAR  5.3"
BTV  5.1"
CON  4.2"
ORH  1.4"
ALB  1.3"
BDL  1.0"
BOS  0.9"
BDR  0.7"
BGM  0.6"
PVD  0.6"
EWR  T
ISP  T
JFK  T

DEC goes into the books without a contest-worthy storm for the second year in a row.

Three quarters left in the season.
Bring on the pattern change!


Friday, December 25, 2015

Winter '15 / '16 - Coastal Teaser #1


Maybe DEC 2015 won't go into the record books as not having a single contest-worthy snow storm.

Progs depict weak cyclogenesis this weekend over southern TX and a track to the NE well west of the Appalachian mountains with half-hearted secondary development off the Delmarva a few days later.

Retreating and weakening Arctic HIGH over SE CN would support a layer a slop along the coast with plowable snows inland.

NWP image courtesy meteocentre.com

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NEWxSFC's historian reports four of 16 DECs without a contest-worthy storm (winters ending:  '00, '07, '12, '15).



Season-total snowfall totals ... P-O-R-N ... and PCT of P-O-R-N
'99 - '00 (unavailable - no season-total contest)
'06 - '07   617" / 926" (67%)
'11 - '12   393" / 934" (42%)
'14 - '15  1,336" / 934" (143%)

Not a good sign but too soon to abandon all hope.

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Winter '15 / '16 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #1 UPDATE 1

ECMWF continues to signal PV weakening near month's end.

Initial panel (right) @ 80 m/s (155 knot; 179 mph).

D+10  @ 60 m/s (117 knot;134 mph).Also note the weakening +QBO feature INVOF 30 mb.

00 mb D+10 prog (bottom) signals the start of a splitting PV with circulation centers over the Laptev Sea (west of Barents Sea) and extreme northern Canada ... as well as the leading edge of a sharp wave over the Prime Meridian.

Takes a few weeks for a propagating wave to reach 10 mb then work its way to the surface.


Monday, December 14, 2015

Winter '15 / '16 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #1

Following a recent cross-hemisphere shift of the polar vortex's (PV) center of circulation from NW Greenland to the Barents Sea ... the first signs of upward propagating wave energy have appeared on the ECMWF/s 13-DEC-15 100 / 70 / 50 mb progs.

The potential for a PV split faces a stiff headwind.  The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) began it westerly phase in JUN and has yet to reach its peak suggesting the PV stays intact.

Of course ... if a SSW comes to fruition ... it takes time for the initial wave to reach 10 mb and then propagate to the surface on average about three weeks later making the 'if and when' of it all wait until late JAN.

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Winter '15 / '16 - 15th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest - The Forecasts

14 forecasters + P-O-R-N + CONSENSUS
375 station forecasts


Entries ranked by STP
BLUE - 25th percentile
RED - 75th percentile
ORANGE - Winter '14 / '15 Top Season-total forecaster
P-O-R-N - period of record normal
CONSENSUS - average of individual forecasts by station

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Station forecasts for BELOW average snowfall - 160 (43%)
Station forecasts for ABOVE average snowfall - 215 (57%)

Consensus (at least 67% of forecasts) for stations w/BELOW average snowfall @ BGM
Consensus (at least 67% of forecasts) for stations w/ABOVE average snowfall @ CAR ... BTV ... PVD ... BDR ... ABE ... BWI ... IAD ... and DCA

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All station forecasts at the Contest/s web site here.
 
The regular 'snow storm' forecasting contest begins when the flakes start flyin'.
'Call for Forecasts' are issued at NEWxSFC/s web log here ... via e-mail ... and Facebook.