CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Monday, December 14, 2015

Winter '15 / '16 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #1

Following a recent cross-hemisphere shift of the polar vortex's (PV) center of circulation from NW Greenland to the Barents Sea ... the first signs of upward propagating wave energy have appeared on the ECMWF/s 13-DEC-15 100 / 70 / 50 mb progs.

The potential for a PV split faces a stiff headwind.  The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) began it westerly phase in JUN and has yet to reach its peak suggesting the PV stays intact.

Of course ... if a SSW comes to fruition ... it takes time for the initial wave to reach 10 mb and then propagate to the surface on average about three weeks later making the 'if and when' of it all wait until late JAN.

No comments: