CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
HM: TQ
Climo: 5th place

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Winter '15 / '16 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #1 UPDATE 1

ECMWF continues to signal PV weakening near month's end.

Initial panel (right) @ 80 m/s (155 knot; 179 mph).

D+10  @ 60 m/s (117 knot;134 mph).Also note the weakening +QBO feature INVOF 30 mb.

00 mb D+10 prog (bottom) signals the start of a splitting PV with circulation centers over the Laptev Sea (west of Barents Sea) and extreme northern Canada ... as well as the leading edge of a sharp wave over the Prime Meridian.

Takes a few weeks for a propagating wave to reach 10 mb then work its way to the surface.


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