CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED ... 13-DEC-17 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Snow Storm #1
Synoptiscope in VCP32

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Winter '15 / '16 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #1 UPDATE 1

ECMWF continues to signal PV weakening near month's end.

Initial panel (right) @ 80 m/s (155 knot; 179 mph).

D+10  @ 60 m/s (117 knot;134 mph).Also note the weakening +QBO feature INVOF 30 mb.

00 mb D+10 prog (bottom) signals the start of a splitting PV with circulation centers over the Laptev Sea (west of Barents Sea) and extreme northern Canada ... as well as the leading edge of a sharp wave over the Prime Meridian.

Takes a few weeks for a propagating wave to reach 10 mb then work its way to the surface.

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