Winter '15 / '16 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #1 UPDATE 1

ECMWF continues to signal PV weakening near month's end.

Initial panel (right) @ 80 m/s (155 knot; 179 mph).

D+10  @ 60 m/s (117 knot;134 mph).Also note the weakening +QBO feature INVOF 30 mb.

00 mb D+10 prog (bottom) signals the start of a splitting PV with circulation centers over the Laptev Sea (west of Barents Sea) and extreme northern Canada ... as well as the leading edge of a sharp wave over the Prime Meridian.

Takes a few weeks for a propagating wave to reach 10 mb then work its way to the surface.