CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 11-APR-20 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

Snow Storm #1 (01-DEC-19)
FINAL Results here

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19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
20th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here
Forecaster verification table here

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #3 - Call for Forecasts!

E. Meadow - Hempstead Turnpike
Long Island ... NY
18-FEB-36

CANCELLED

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Not the greatest set of progs you/ll ever see but that/s been the story a couple times already this winter.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline: 10:30 PM EST ... SUN ... 14-FEB-16

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST ... MON .... 15-FEB-16
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM EST ... TUE ... 16-FEB-16
 
Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'


Contest may be cancelled before deadline if storm appears to fizzle.

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #2 - FINAL Results

Full forecast verification and summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.

     
 1st - TQ 
 SUMSQ:49.52  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.586  
 STP:17.8 (4) 
 TAE:28.2 (1) 
 AAE:1.04 (1) 
     
 2nd - donsutherland1 
 SUMSQ:64.62  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.542  
 STP:25.4 (7) 
 TAE:32.7 (2) 
 AAE:1.31 (2) 
     
 3rd - Herb @MAWS 
 SUMSQ:76.6  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.507  
 STP:9.1 (3) 
 TAE:34.6 (3) 
 AAE:1.39 (3) 
     
 HM - Donald Rosenfeld 
 SUMSQ:77.7  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.504  
 STP:19.9 (5) 
 TAE:34.8 (4) 
 AAE:1.39 (4) 
     
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SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Friday, February 12, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #2: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for TUE through THU from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.
Good coverage but some spotty reporting.

PWM
11-FEB climate bulletins reported 0.11" liquid but 0" snow.
METAR carried all snow during the period of precipitation.
Previous days' 13.1: 1 SN:H20 was applied to the reported 0.11" liquid for an estimated daily snowfall of 1.5"

HYA
P- and 6-groups carried all 0s throughout the event.
VSBY briefly 3/4 SM; otherwise ... ~2 SM.
Estimated STP no more then 0.1"

SBY
PNSAKQ carried a report from a city official of 1".
Daily climate data shows 1" snow and 0.02" liquid (SN:H20 = 50:1)

PNSPHI carried reports from neighboring Sussex county ... DE where MAX snowfall of 0.7" came from Delmar located five miles north of SBY.  SBY/s reported 1" snowfall appears reasonable but not the liquid equivalent.

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No new daily records.

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Snow storm #2 underperformed with only two stations observing more than nuisance snowfall (>= 4").
Most stations (23 of 27) reported snowfall greater than Trace.


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A 'Call for Forecasts' was not issued for what turned out to be the main event 08-FEB b/c NWP failed again to capture the storm's intensity until it was too late.

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results SAT evening.

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming

Temperature change of -25°C over seven days & 10 mb flow reversal.


Images courtesy Japan Meteorological Agency.
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Previous post:

Winter '15 / '16 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN totals

Station snowfall summary for JAN-16.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

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Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile

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Teleconnection Indexes
AO: -1.449
NAO: 0.12
PDO: 1.53
QBO: 9.34
MEI: 2.202
SOI: -19.7

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #2: The Forecasts!

Rookie 0
Intern 0
Journey 0
Senior 12
TOT 12

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Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
Grey and white STP cells are between the 25th and 75th percentile.
 
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Heaviest snowfall (+4") consensus along and the right of MDT - ABE -  PHL - BWI - MDT.
Lollypop expected at MDT.
 
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All above water.
Even during the heavier snowfall event on the 8th.
 
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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the NEWxSFC/s web site.

Sunday, February 7, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #2: Call for Forecasts

MDT
07-FEB-67
Riding the 18z NAM and GFS.
Minimum number of stations in play.
A few more are close enough.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline: 10:30 PM EST ... MON ... 08-FEB-16
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST ... TUE ... 09-FEB-16
Verification period ends: when the snow stops falling

Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox.

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Contest may be cancelled before deadline if storm appears to fizzle.

Friday, February 5, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - Phantom Storm #1


Today/s poorly-forecast nor'easter turned out to be a decent contest-worthy snow storm over coastal portions of southern New England.

Insufficient lead time to issue a 'Call for Forecasts.'

Near-blizzard conditions on Cape Cod.
Who knew?

Storm-total snowfall (")
ORH - 12.5
ISP - 9.8
PVD - 8.8
BDR - 8
BGR - 7.8
BDL - 6.6
CON - 5.1
PVD - 5.1
BOS - 4.6
JFK - 4.6
EWR - 2.8

Monday, February 1, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #2

UPDATE (01-FEB-18):
As advertised ...

 
 
Looks yuge.

Beat the rush.
Start laying in supplies now.

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10 mb Temperature Anomalies
GFS Ensembles 10-JAN-16

"The models are now coming into better consensus for a stronger pulse of energy transfer beginning next week that is predicted to initiate a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) at the end of the month."

 -  AER Arctic Oscillation Analysis and Forecasts (time sensitive)

Progs expect PV displacement v. PV split.