CONTEST STATUS - Last update: THU ... 20-APR-17 @ 9:40 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season'

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17th Annual 'Season-total'

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - 18th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results


Four contest-worthy storms this season.  Tied with Winter '05 / '06 for 15th place.
Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least THREE forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings..

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Top 5 Forecasts (Error statistic:  SUMSQ)
SUMSQ is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

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Top 5 Forecasts (Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error - TAE)
TAE is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall at each station.

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Top 5 Forecasts (Error statistic:  RSQ)
RSQ is a supplementary measure of forecaster skill (higher the better).
Accounts for the how well the forecaster captured the variability of the observed snowfall (more / less observed where more / less forecast).

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Average Z-scores for Forecasters who submitted entries for all four snow storms.

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Winter '16 / '17 was only the third season without a JAN snow storm.
 
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Hope to see y'all again next winter.

Saturday, April 8, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - 18th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: The End is Nigh

Central Park ... NYC
19-FEB-41
Despite our longing for one more contest-worthy snow storm ... the long wave pattern shows little inclination to alter its ridiculously stubborn regime of processing 'all' SFC LOWs through the Great Lakes region.

Sure hasn/t been a great season for nor'easters in general or nor'easters climbing the coast from low latitudes specifically.

Most seasons ... it/s all said and done by early MAR.
Average date of the last 4" or greater snowfall:
CAR 23-MAR
BGR 15-MAR
PWM 08-MAR
ORH 07-MAR
BTV 06-MAR
CON 06-MAR
ALB 06-MAR
BGM 06-MAR
BOS 25-FEB
BDL 24-FEB

However ... there are exceptions.
Latest date of the last 4" or greater snowfall:
CAR 16-MAY
PWM 11-MAY
CON 10-MAY
ALB 10-MAY
ORH 09-MAY
BGR 24-APR
BTV 23-APR
BGM 22-APR
BDL 21-APR
BOS 10-APR

Source:
NOWData http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php



The end of the Winter '16 / '17 snowfall forecasting season appears nigh.
All else equal ... the season will close on SAT ... 15-APR.

Sunday, April 2, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - 16th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results



Complete station-by-station forecaster verifications at the Contest/s web site here.

Two perfect forecasts
Donald Rosenfeld 100" @ CAR
Mitchel Volk 15" @ PHL

Near misses
Jessica_wxgirl 0.05" error @ RIC (7.2")
Shillelagh and Jessica_wxgirl 0.1" error @ MDT (23.9")
donsutherland1 0.1" error @ ORH (75.4")
MillVillWx 0.2" error @ ALB (58.3")
kevinmyatt 0.2" error @ NYC (30.2")
weathermbug ... TQ ... and DAROOSTA 0.2" error @ SBY (9.8")
Herb @MAWS and weathermbug 0.2" error @ ORF (5.4")
snowman 0.3" error @ BTV (91.7") and 0.2" error @ EWR (31.4")
Donald Rosenfeld 0.5" error @ BGM (104.5")


Season-total snowfall from all stations (1041") came in 14% above the period-of-record normal (914").  Winter '16 / '17 ranks 6th highest among other Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list. 

Saturday, April 1, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Observed Snowfall Station Summary

New England FTW!
 

Winter '16 / '17 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR totals

Station snowfall summary for MAR-17.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.


Station snowfall summary for Winter '16 / '17 - Season-to-date snowfall through MAR

Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> 50th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile
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Teleconnection indexes and month-over trend (updated as they become available)
AO:  1.365⇧
NAO:  0.74⇩
PDO:  0.74⇧
QBO:  14.35⇩
SOI:  5.1⇧

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Winter '16 / '17 - Last Gasp?

Philly
THU and FRI/s snowfall over our northern forecast stations may have been this winter/s last gasp for a contest-worthy snow storm.

Station / NWS mid-range forecast (") / STP (")
ALB / 3.5 / 1.8
BDL / 0 / 1
BTV / 2.5 / 2.5
ORH / 5 / 1.5
BOS / 5 / 0.6
CON / 10 / 5.7
PWM / 5 / 3

Four measly stations (five if you include the upper limit at ALB) were expected to see more than nuisance snowfalls.   In the end ... but one came through.

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Will keep the window open a little longer for the possibility for one last snow storm.

Over the forecasting contest/s 18 seasons ... there have been five contest snow storms in April ... the last one coming in 2011.  The return period is 4.5 years ... so we're 'overdue' for another.  If not ... the 'Regular' season will end with four snow storms (ranked 15th; top-ranked seasons:  '02 / '03 and '03 / '04 with 10 storms each).

Winter '16 / '17 - Temperature Departure from Normal: Progress Report

UPDATED for MAR anomalies:


  
 
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Cohen has some ground to make up in the east.
 
Will FEB offer a lifeline?
CFSv2 image courtesy WxAmerica
 

Sunday, March 26, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #4: NESIS

Rank:  23
NESIS:  5.03
Category:  3
Description:  Major

Large format image here.

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NOAA has yet to report how many square miles the storm covered and how many millions of people it affected.

Friday, March 24, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - Interim Standings: 2

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least THREE forecasts are included in the interim standings.


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Complete interim statistics table and charts at the Contest/s web site here.
Forecaster verification statistics for Winter '16 / '17 contest storms here.

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.

Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #4: FINAL Results

UPDATE:
THX to Forecaster Roger Smith for alerting us to important errors in the STP verification data (forgot in include 13-MAR snowfall - 1D10T error).  Stats and standings have been corrected.

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Original post 17-MAR-17 @ 10:15 PM EDT
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Forecaster's station verifications and the storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

     
 1st - Shillelagh 
 SUMSQ:864  
 SUMSQ Z:-1.627  
 STP:28.9 (5) 
 TAE:86.8 (1) 
 AAE:3.47 (1) 
     
 2nd - WeatherT 
 SUMSQ:1264  
 SUMSQ Z:-1.024  
 STP:45.8 (9) 
 TAE:129.0 (3) 
 AAE:5.16 (3) 
     
 3rd - Brad Yehl 
 SUMSQ:1401  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.816  
 STP:46.3 (10) 
 TAE:133.1 (4) 
 AAE:5.32 (4) 
     
 HM - JessicaCain 
 SUMSQ:1417  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.792  
 STP:49.1 (11) 
 TAE:138.1 (5) 
 AAE:5.53 (6)