CONTEST STATUS - Updated: TUE...04-NOV-14 @ 8:35 AM EST

Winter '14 / '15 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
Wx GO!

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16th Annual 'Regular Season'
Contest starts with the 1st contest-worthy storm

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14th Annual 'Season-total'
Call for Forecasts!
Details here
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Sunday, November 2, 2014

Winter '14 / '15 - 14th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest - Call for Forecasts!

NE.Wx's 14th annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is the absolute best...biggest...and probably ONLY chance to be recognized for your long-range forecasting acumen.

All you have to do is forecast the season-total snowfall at 25 stations from RDU to CAR.

Deadline: SUN...30-NOV-14 @ 11:59 PM EST

Visit the Contest's website to enter your forecast.
Follow the link from 'Enter Season-total Forecast.'

1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to your front door):
"The Snow Booklet" by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson (paperback and .pdf) and
"Snow in America" by Bernard Mergan (hardcover)

As always...NO cost...NO fees...NO advertising...NO annoying requests for personal information to enter the contest.  NEWxSFC is just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best season-total snowfall forecast.

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Forecast element:  sum-total season snowfall @ each station
Forecast period:  01-DEC-14 through 31-MAR-15
Verification:  NWS preliminary climate reports (CLM or CF6)

Error statistic:  total absolute error [Σ abs(forecast - observed)]

Update your forecast as often as you want prior to the deadline.
Only your last entry gets verified.

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The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is WXCHEMIST.
Last year's 'Season-total' forecast summary...verification...and final results ==> here.

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The Contest is open to amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...along with any other universally recognized classes of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras...registered Nostradamusts...non-violent megalomaniacs...woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents...pest detectives...NE.Wx NG regulars and lurkers; refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather...including self-imposed exiles from Eastern...and of course...meteorologists.

In honor of USENET ne.weather's patron saint Mr. Joseph Bartlo's final request (RIP)...trolls...goats...hat3-lsiters...and psests need not apply.

Sunday, July 20, 2014

Winter '14 / '15 - Outlooks

Thread updated periodically as new outlooks and forecasts are issued from a variety of sources.

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Accu-Wx
"After record-shattering temperatures and high snow totals last winter in the Northeast, a similar theme will continue into the 2014-2015 season."



NOAA
"Last year’s winter was exceptionally cold and snowy across most of the United States, east of the Rockies. A repeat of this extreme pattern is unlikely this year"



Climate Prediction Center
(Experimental Unofficial Two-class Monthly & Seasonal Climate Outlooks)


Saturday, April 26, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - 'Regular Season' Contest: FINAL Results

NYC
27-DEC-47
Turned out to be a fairly decent season with eight contest-worthy storms.
(DEC - 1; JAN - 2; FEB - 2; MAR - 3)

Top Forecasters ('two-thirds' rule)
1st - donsutherland
2nd - Brad Yehl
3rd - Herb @MAWS
Honorable Mention: TQ

Top Forecasters (entered all eight Contests)
1st - donsutherland
2nd - Herb @MAWS
3rd - TQ
Honorable Mention: Brad Yehl

More 'slice and dice' results at the Contest/s web site here.

Everyone's storm summary data here.

See y'all next winter!

Sunday, April 6, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results


Full forecast verification at the Contest/s web site here.
See y'all next year!

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Forecaster STP


Table ranks Forecasters by their expected cumulative season-total snowfall (STP) compared to the cumulative observed season-total snowfall only.  It does not indicate how well the forecast verified.

Observed:  1412.7"
Period-or-Record normal (PORN):  934"

The cumulative season-total snowfall was 479" (51%) above normal.


GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Lowest Station Errors


Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Season-total Snowfall


GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below


Only one station (RDU) did not observe at least 100% of their period-of-record normal (PORN) snowfall.


Winter '13 / '14 was a Mid-Atlantic season hands-down.
Lollypop for the 68" at PHL (323% above PORN).

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals


GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals



GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: FINAL Results


SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #8 at the Contest/s web site here.