CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SUN ... 19-FEB-17 @ 7:35 PM EST

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

18th Annual 'Regular Season'
Interim Standings here

Snow Storm #4
Synoptiscope in VCP32

Snow Storm #3
FINAL Results here

Snow Storm #2
FINAL Results here

Snow Storm #1
FINAL Results here

---
16th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries as passed
Forecasts here

----------------------------------------------------
Winter '15 / '16 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
----------------------------------------------------
17th Annual 'Regular Season'
Details here
---
15th Annual 'Season-total'
Verified forecasts here

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - Interim Standings: 1

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least TWO forecasts are included in the interim standings.


---
Complete interim statistics table and charts at the Contest/s web site here.
Verified forecast statistics from all forecasters for all Winter '16 / '17 contest storms here.

---
SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings. If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.

Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.

Friday, February 17, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN totals

Station snowfall summary for JAN-17.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

 
Station snowfall summary for Winter '16 / '17 - YTD JAN

Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile

---
Teleconnection indexes and month-over trend (updated as they become available)
AO:  0.942 ⇩
NAO:  0.48 ⇔
PDO:  0.77 ⇩
QBO:  14.92 ⇩
SOI:  1.3 ⇩

---
⇩⇧⇔

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - Forecaster Storm Data

Here

Winter '16 / '17 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #2

Could be the season/s final stratospheric warming event.
Images from 15-FEB-17 ECMWF run.


Weak high-altitude zonal flow returns after the recent SSW event.

---

Flow above 30 mb reverses and strengthens as the PV is once again displaced.
Flow throughout the depth of the troposphere (evidence of the downward propagation from the previous SSW?) also reverses.

---

Cold pool from previous SSW event progged to settle above the NOAM/s Arctic Circle near month/s end.

Stratosphere Diagnostics courtesy Freie Universität Berlin

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #3: FINAL Results

Forecaster verifications and storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

     
 1st - donsutherland1 
 SUMSQ:172  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.885  
 STP:6.2 (2) 
 TAE:40.4 (2) 
 AAE:2.25 (3) 
     
 2nd - WeatherT 
 SUMSQ:184  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.814  
 STP:24.3 (6) 
 TAE:43.1 (4) 
 AAE:2.27 (4) 
     
 3rd - Brad Yehl 
 SUMSQ:186  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.805  
 STP:17.3 (5) 
 TAE:42.0 (3) 
 AAE:2.21 (2) 
     
 HM - TQ 
 SUMSQ:224  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.591  
 STP:3.3 (1) 
 TAE:38.9 (1) 
 AAE:2.16 (1) 
     

---
SUMSQ: sum of square errors (")
STP: storm-total precipitation error (")
TAE: total absolute error (")
AAE: average absolute error (")
(number): category rank

---


Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #3: Preliminary Verification

Table of preliminary storm-total snowfalls for SUN and MON from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.

Exceptions:
HYA
Storm-total snowfall estimated by interpolation of vicinity PNSBOX reports and evaluation of METARs.

ORH
13-FEB/s daily CLI and CF6 bulletins carry 'MM' as daily snowfall at post-time.  Storm-total snowfall entered as reported by PNSGYX and evaluation of METARs.  Value subject to change pending CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletin updates.

IAD
Daily climate bulletin carries 'T'; however ... no evidence of frozen precipitation in METARs.

---
Stations observed at least:
Trace - 16
4" - 9
6" - 7
8" - 5
10" - 4
12" - 2
18" - 1

Max melt-water at PWM (1.57")
Other stations with > 1" melt-water:  BGR (1.04")

Snow-Liquid Ratios (SLR) for areas with mixed precipitation ... such as BDL and BOS ... are not reported.

---
Two new daily records.
12-FEB-17
BTV - 7.6" (6.8"; 1988)

13-FEB-17
BGR - 21.5" (6.3"; 1977)

---
Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results NLT WED evening.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #3: The Forecasts

Rookie 1
Intern 0
Journey 1
Senior 11
TOT 13

Includes NWS 'official' forecasts ... as of the deadline.

---
Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).


BLUE ==> 25th percentile
RED ==> 75th percentile
White STP cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile.


Heaviest snowfall (>= 10") consensus along and the right of ALB - ORH - BGR - PWN - CON  - ALB.
Lollypop expected at BGR.


What's that conventional wisdom about the NAO and NE snowstorms again?

---
Everyone/s station-by-station forecast posted to NEWxSFC/s web site @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
 
Preliminary snowfall verifications posted TUE evening.
FINAL results WED evening.

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #2: FINAL Results

Forecaster verifications and storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

     
 1st - emoran 
 SUMSQ:130  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.850  
 STP:7.6 (4) 
 TAE:40.1 (1) 
 AAE:1.74 (1) 
     
 2nd - donsutherland1 
 SUMSQ:131  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.848  
 STP:20.6 (9) 
 TAE:45.2 (4) 
 AAE:1.81 (3) 
     
 3rd - TQ 
 SUMSQ:133  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.842  
 STP:28.1 (12) 
 TAE:49.3 (6) 
 AAE:1.89 (4) 
     
 HM - Brad Yehl 
 SUMSQ:161  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.728  
 STP:8.0 (5) 
 TAE:43.1 (2) 
 AAE:1.80 (2) 
     

---
SUMSQ: sum of square errors (")
STP: storm-total precipitation error (")
TAE: total absolute error (")
AAE: average absolute error (")
(number): category rank

---