CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED...09-APR-14 @ 10:20 PM EDT

Winter '13 / '14 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

Sincere thanks to Mr. Donald Rosenfeld for providing technical support and web hosting services to the NEWxSFC/s web site again this year.

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15th Annual 'Regular Season'

Contest will remain open for another week.
GFS has been flirting with a last gasp event mid-month.

- Storm #9
Synoptiscope in VCP32

- Interim Standings here (as of Storm #8)
- Forecaster 'storm' summary' data here

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13th Annual 'Season-total'

- FINAL results here


Sunday, April 6, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results


Full forecast verification at the Contest/s web site here.
See y'all next year!

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Forecaster STP


Table ranks Forecasters by their expected cumulative season-total snowfall (STP) compared to the cumulative observed season-total snowfall only.  It does not indicate how well the forecast verified.

Observed:  1412.7"
Period-or-Record normal (PORN):  934"

The cumulative season-total snowfall was 479" (51%) above normal.


GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Lowest Station Errors


Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Season-total Snowfall


GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below


Only one station (RDU) did not observe at least 100% of their period-of-record normal (PORN) snowfall.


Winter '13 / '14 was a Mid-Atlantic season hands-down.
Lollypop for the 68" at PHL (323% above PORN).

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals


GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals



GREEN - 75th percentile and above
RED - 25th percentile and below

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: FINAL Results


SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #8 at the Contest/s web site here.

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: Preliminary Verification


UPDATE 2:
Delayed issuance of SBY climate bulletins carried 5" STP coinciding with local media report in PNSAKQ.  CLI STP at odds with METAR data; however...it is what it is.

UPDATE @ 3:42 PM 
Re-analysis of SBY 6-group and P-group data indicates 0.39" liquid and 3.9" STP at 10:1 SN:H2O.

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Original post @ 10:01 AM
Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Sunday and Monday from CDUS41 and CXUS51.

Good coverage and reporting.

SBY/s 1.8" STP estimated from the METAR 6-group at 10:1 SN:H2O.

Six new daily records
SUN...16-MAR-14
IAD - 6.6" (1.6"; 1978)
ACY - 2.2" (1.7"; 1978)

MON...17-MAR-14
PHL - 4.7" (3.5"; 1892)
IAD - 4.5" (1.9"; 1965)
DCA - 3.9" (1.9"; 1965)
ACY - 3.7" (1.6"; 1965)




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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results Wednesday evening.

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: FINAL Results



SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #7 at the Contest/s web site here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: The Forecasts!


Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 6
TOT 8

101 station forecasts.


Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.


Heaviest snowfall (+4") consensus across DC-BATLO metro area extending onto the Delmarva with the lollypop expected at IAD.  Another consensus about whether this was a contest-worthy event!


<still speechless>

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.