CONTEST STATUS - Updated: MON ... 19-OCT-20 @ 6:20 PM EDT

Winter '20 / '21 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
22nd Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season starts when flakes start a'flyin'
Watch this space

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20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Deadline for entries: 11:59 PM EST ... MON ... 30-NOV-20
Details here

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Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

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19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

Monday, October 19, 2020

Winter '20 / '21 - 20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Call for Forecasts!

NEWxSFC/s Director of Season-total Snowfall Forecasting
Here comes winter with its oscillating Arctic and North Atlantic indexes ... sudden stratosphere warmings ... so-so ENSO ... and if we/re lucky .... an endless parade of 'Miller A' LOWs raking the eastern seaboard.

NE.Wx/s 20th Annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is the absolute best ... biggest ... and possibly ONLY chance to be recognized for your astute long-range forecasting acumen ;/

And it's s-o-o easy.
Cool prizes ... too!

All you have to do is issue the best forecast for the 'season-total' snowfall at 25 east coast stations between RDU and CAR!

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Forecast element:
season-total snowfall @ each station

Forecast period:
01-DEC-20 through 31-MAR-21

Error statistic: total absolute error
[Σ abs(forecast - observed)]

Verification:
NWS climate reports (CLM or CF6)

Low. Score. Wins.

Deadline for entries: MON ... 30-NOV-20 @ 11:59 PM EST (01-DEC-20 @ 4:59 UTC)

Visit the Contest's website to enter your forecast.
Follow the link at the top right corner of the page to 'Enter Season-total Forecast.'

Update your forecast as often as you want prior to the deadline.
Only your last entry gets verified.

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1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to your front door):
... choice of a book from NEWxSFC library
... the august title 'Chief Season-total Snowfall Forecaster' for Winter '21 / '22 and
... a well-deserved place of high esteem and honor with past winners.

2nd place prize (delivered post-paid right to your front door):
... choice of a book from NEWxSFC library

3rd place prize (delivered post-paid right to your front door):
... choice of a book from NEWxSFC library

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The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is Herb @MAWS
Last year's 'Season-total' forecast summary ... verification ... and final results at our website here.

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As always; NO cost ... NO fees ... NO advertising ... NO annoying requests for personal information to enter the contest.  NEWxSFC is a just-for-fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast.

The Contest is open to all including amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters ... astrologers ... along with any other universally recognized classes of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras ... registered Nostradamuses ... non-violent megalomaniacs ... woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents ... pest detectives ... ne.weather USENET veterans and lurkers ... riders on the StormVista ... refugees from AmericanWx ... US Weather survivors ... including self-imposed exiles from Eastern Wx ... and of course ... meteorologists.

In honor of USENET/s ne.weather patron saint Mr. Joseph Bartlo's final request (RIP); trolls ... goats ... hat3-lsiters ... and psests need not apply.

Thursday, October 15, 2020

Winter '20 / '21 - Outlooks

Thread updated periodically as new outlooks and forecasts become available from a variety of credible sources.

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CDC ...


 

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Farmers' Almanac ...

Sunday, October 4, 2020

Winter '20 / '21 - Severe Weather Europe: Winter Forecast

 Severe Weather Europe ...

"The La Nina phase will reach quite a formidable strength at its peak but is expected to start to weaken towards spring 2021."

"Historically, the most typical effect of a La Nina is a strong blocking high-pressure system in the North Pacific."

"North America winter forecast looks fairly solid to be a classical La Nina type winter. Most of western Canada is to expect colder and snowier conditions, along with Alaska.

"The United States expects to see a “dipole” pattern or a “two-faced” winter. The Northern [sic] United States are expected to be normal to colder and wetter. This increases the chance of more snowfall, but more likely towards the western half, and less likely in the eastern parts.

"The Southern [sic] United States can slowly prepare for warmer and mostly drier than normal winter weather. This however does not imply that [sic] no cold front can reach the southern states. It just implies that [sic] in a La Nina pattern, it is much less likely to get frequent cold fronts down to the very south."

Sunday, September 20, 2020

Winter '20 / '21 - How Arctic Amplification Affects the Polar Vortex

 "AER explains how accelerated Arctic warming, known as Arctic amplification, is increasingly disrupting the polar vortex, leading to widespread severe winter weather across the Northern Hemisphere’s mid-latitudes."

 https://youtu.be/EMeI4N5dui4

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Winter '19 / '20 - 19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

Congratulations to Herb @MAWS for his 1st Place finish.
Herb also placed first in '03 / '04 and '09 / '10.

Forecasters ranked by their Total Absolute Error (TAE)
The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how well the forecaster did compared to climatology [(Period-of-Record Normal (PORN)].  The most skillful forecasts beat climatology 

RED ==> 75th percentile
WHITE ==>  interquartile range (>25th & < 75th percentiles)
BLUE ==> 25th percentile

Forecasters' stations with the lowest absolute error

Friday, April 10, 2020

Thursday, April 9, 2020

Winter '19 / '20 - 19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Preliminary STP Verification

Preliminary sum-total season snowfalls for the verification period 01-DEC-19 though 31-MAR-20 collected from monthly climate bulletins (CLMxxx; CXUS51 ... CXUS52).


One forecast station (4% of all stations) with bonus season-total snowfalls [more than Period-Of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N)].
Rank ordered descending by percent of P-O-R-N.

Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Interquartile range (< 75th & > 25th percentiles)
Red ==> 25th percentile

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL results expected NLT SAT evening.

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Winter '19 / '20 monthly snow totals
DEC:  Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals
JAN:  Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals
FEB:  Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals
MAR:  Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Winter '19 / '20 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

MAR-20 snowfall summary by forecast station.
Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).


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Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 25th percentile

Obs reported as 0.05" implies Trace

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MAR Forecast Station Highlights
No station observed more than 100% of its monthly normal snowfall.

Biggest losers (0")
PHL
BWI
ACY
DCA
RIC
SBY
RDU
ORF

P-O-R-N v. Observed (less than 15%)
PVD:  (6.8'' v. 0.4'')
IAD:  (3.5'' v. 0.05'')
NYC:  (4.9'' v. 0.05'')
EWR:  (5.1'' v. 0.05'')
BDR:  (5.5'' v. 0.05'')
ABE:  (6'' v. 0.05'')
MDT:  (6.5'' v. 0.05'')
BOS:  (8'' v. 0.05'')

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Season-total

MAR P-O-R-N contributes 184" (20%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 929".
MAR-20 observed snowfall:  66" (36% of P-O-R-N; 7% of season-total snowfall)

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Teleconnections
No contest-worthy storms in MAR.

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Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals
Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals
Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Winter '19 / '20 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB Totals

FEB-20 snowfall summary by forecast station.
Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).


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Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 25th percentile

Obs reported as 0.05" implies Trace

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FEB Forecast Station Highlights
CAR
- The observed 33" snowfall is 146% of its monthly P-O-R-N of 22.6".
- about one-third its season-total normal

BGM
- The observed 25.2" snowfall is 140% of its monthly P-O-R-N of 18".
- about one-third its season-total normal

BTV
- The observed 21.4" snowfall is 123% of its monthly P-O-R-N of 17.4".
- about one-third its season-total normal

RDU
- The observed 2.5" snowfall is 109% of its monthly P-O-R-N of 2.3".
- 38% its season-total normal

Biggest losers
DCA:  0"

Observed v P-O-R-N (less than 15%)
ORH:  (2.5'' v 17.8'')
RIC:  (0.5'' v 3.9'')
BOS:  (0.5'' v 12.6'')
BDL:  (0.4'' v 12.9'')
SBY:  (T v 3.4'')
ACY:  (T v 6.3'')
BWI:  (T v 6.8'')
IAD:  (T v 7.2'')
PHL:  (T v 7.4'')
NYC:  (T v 8.9'')
BDR:  (T v 9'')
EWR:  (T v 9.1'')
MDT:  (T v 9.3'')
ABE:  (T v 9.9'')
PVD:  (T v 10.2'')
DCA:  (0'' v 5.4'')

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Season-to-Date

FEB P-O-R-N contributes 262" (28%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 929".
FEB-20 observed snowfall:  124.2" (47% of P-O-R-N; 13% of season-total snowfall)

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Teleconnections

No contest-worthy storms in FEB.

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Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals
Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Winter '19 / '20 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals

JAN-20 snowfall summary by forecast station.
Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).


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Green ==> 75th - 100th percentile
White ==> less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 0 - 25th percentile

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JAN Forecast Station Highlights
CAR
- JAN/s 31.5" 131% of its monthly P-O-R-N of 24.1".
- about one-third its season-total normal

Biggest losers (again)
SBY ... ORF (0")

Observed v P-O-R-N (less than 15%)
BWI:  (0.2" v 5.9")
PHL:  (0.2" v 7.1")
RDU:  (T v 2.5")
RIC:  (T v 5")
ACY:  (T v 6")

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Season-to-Date

JAN P-O-R-N contributes 279" (30%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 929".
JAN-20 observed snowfall:  136.2" (49% of P-O-R-N; 15% of season-total snowfall)

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Teleconnections

Winter '19 / '20 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals