CONTEST STATUS - Updated: FRI ... 10-APR-15 @ 5:45 PM EDT

Winter '14 / '15 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

---
16th Annual 'Regular Season'

FINAL Standings here
Forecaster summary data here

---
14th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Thursday, April 9, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Above Normal Snowfall and the MIA Northern Annular Oscillations

NYC
13-DEC-60

Number of days between 01-DEC and 31-MAR:  121
Number of days between 01-DEC and 31-MAR where

NAO <= 0:  9
NAO <= -1:  0

NAO >= 1:  50
NAO >= 1.5:  18
NAO >= 2:  2

AO <= 0:  28
AO <= -1:  9
AO <= -1.5:  2

AO >= 1:  60
AO >= 1.5:  48
AO >= 2:  32
AO >= 3:  11
AO >= 4:  4
AO >= 5:  3

PNA >= 0:  85
PNA >= 1:  11
PNA >= 1.5:  0

Number of NEWxSFC stations with at least
100% normal snowfall:  22
150% normal snowfall:  9
200% normal snowfall:  3
250% normal snowfall:  1


AO - NAO - PNA (daily)
Meteorological winter '14 / '15
AO - NAO - PNA (7-day moving average)
Meteorological winter '14 / '15
AO - NAO - PNA (30-day moving average)
Meteorological winter '14 / '15

---
Something happenin' here.
What it is ain't exactly clear.

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - 14th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

Don Sutherland FTW!

 
The 'season-total' snowfall forecast contest/s error statistic is total absolute error.
For each forecast station ... the absolute value of (Forecast - Observed) is calculated ... then summed.
 
Forecasts with lower 'total absolute forecast' errors have more skill than those with higher 'total absolute forecast' errors.
 
P-O-R-N is the 'Period Of Record Normal' or climatology.
Skillful season-total forecasts beat climatology.
 
---
Lowest Station Errors
 
Forecaster STP Summary
 
Snowfall Totals (DJFM)
 
DEC Totals
 
JAN Totals
 
FEB Totals
 
MAR Totals
 
---
Everyone's forecast has been verified and posted to the Contest/s web site here.
Hope to see y'all back again next winter.

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Lowest Station Errors


Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Forecaster STP Summary

Forecaster season-total snowfall forecasts are ranked by their departure from the observed season-total snowfall.  It does not show forecasts ranked by their accuracy.  Forecast accuracy is determined by the sum of absolute errors for all stations.

Red ==> 67th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Blue ==> 33rd percentile

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Snowfall Totals (DJFM)

Despite the slow start to the season ... winter quickly made up for lost time between late JAN and MAR.
Season-total snowfall for all stations (1,336") came in 43% above the period-of-record normal (934"). 
 
 
Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile

---
 
---
STP for winter '14 / '15 ranks 3rd among other Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.
 

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

Monthly station snowfall summary for MAR-15.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.


Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile
 
---
Teleconnection Indexes
AO:  +1.837
NAO:  +1.45
PNA:  +0.49
PDO:  2.00
QBO:  -28.15 (monthly record)
MEI:  .650 (FEB-MAR)

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #2 - Update 4

Incoming!

 
Deep layer Easter easterlies.
 
 
PV displacement
 
Split vortices.
 
---
Major SSW event has begun!
 
 

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #2 - Update 3

ECMWF continues its forecast for a SSW event in the near-term.

Monday, March 23, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #2 - Update 2

Complete break down of the Polar vortex at month's end.
Deep ... deep layer wind reversal (easterlies up and down the Polar atmosphere) 
 

Prediction:  cold spring in the east.