CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 10-SEP-16 @ 2222 LT

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
!!! - Starts as soon as the flakes start flying - !!!

16th Annual 'Season-total'
Enter your forecast at the web site between 01-NOV and 30-NOV

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Winter '15 / '16 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
17th Annual 'Regular Season'
No FINAL standings
Too few storms (2)

The two-thirds rule; forecasters are eligible for ranking in the final standings if they entered at least two-thirds of all storm contests. With only two contest-worthy storms this season ... those forecasters with one entry only would have been ineligible.

In the interest of fairness;
Three storms seems like the bare minimum

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15th Annual 'Season-total'
Verified forecasts here

Saturday, September 10, 2016

Winter '16 / '17 - Outlooks

Thread updated periodically as new outlooks and forecasts are issued from a variety of credible sources.

From CPC ...


From WxBell ...

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - 15th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

Snowman FTW!


The 'season-total' snowfall forecast contest/s error statistic is total absolute error.
For each forecast station ... the absolute value of (Forecast - Observed) is calculated ... then summed.

Forecasts with lower 'total absolute forecast' errors have more skill than those with higher 'total absolute forecast' errors.

CONSENSUS is the mean forecast of all forecasts computed for each station.
P-O-R-N is the 'Period Of Record Normal' or climatology.
Skillful season-total forecasts beat climatology.

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Table of lowest station errors.
  
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Table of the total absolute value of (total snowfall forecast - total snowfall observed).
 
If you finished higher in this table than the 'Total Absolute' table ... you did a better job of forecasting the sum total snowfall amount over the entire forecast area than the distribution of station-total snowfall amounts.
 
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Verified forecasts at NEWcSFC/s web site here.

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - 15th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Snowfall Totals (DJFM)

 
 
Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile

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Extremely slow start to the season.
Only CAR measured above normal snowfall in DEC.
Second highest monthly snowfall:  BGR at 67% normal.

Twelve stations above normal for JAN thanks to major event along the M-A at month's end.
BWI measured 526% normal.
 
Seven stations above normal in FEB.
SBY and BDR measured170% normal.
 
Thee stations above normal in MAR.
SBY measured 322%.
 
Season-total biggest losers: BTV (35%) ... BGM (30%) ... RDU (22%) ... and ALB (19%)

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Good year for the M-A.

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Season-total snowfall from all stations (720") came in 23% below the period-of-record normal (932").  Winter '15 / '16 ranks 3rd lowest among other Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list. 

Winter '15 / '16 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR totals

Station snowfall summary for MAR-16.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.


Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile

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Teleconnection Indexes
AO:  0.280
NAO:  0.73
PDO:  2.40
QBO:  3.16
 SOI: -4.7

Winter '15 / '16 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FEB totals

Station snowfall summary for FEB-16.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.


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Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile

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Teleconnection Indexes
AO:  -0.024
NAO:  1.58
PDO:   1.75
QBO:   6.79
SOI: -19.7

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #3 - Call for Forecasts!

E. Meadow - Hempstead Turnpike
Long Island ... NY
18-FEB-36

CANCELLED

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Not the greatest set of progs you/ll ever see but that/s been the story a couple times already this winter.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline: 10:30 PM EST ... SUN ... 14-FEB-16

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST ... MON .... 15-FEB-16
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM EST ... TUE ... 16-FEB-16
 
Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'


Contest may be cancelled before deadline if storm appears to fizzle.

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #2 - FINAL Results

Full forecast verification and summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.

     
 1st - TQ 
 SUMSQ:49.52  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.586  
 STP:17.8 (4) 
 TAE:28.2 (1) 
 AAE:1.04 (1) 
     
 2nd - donsutherland1 
 SUMSQ:64.62  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.542  
 STP:25.4 (7) 
 TAE:32.7 (2) 
 AAE:1.31 (2) 
     
 3rd - Herb @MAWS 
 SUMSQ:76.6  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.507  
 STP:9.1 (3) 
 TAE:34.6 (3) 
 AAE:1.39 (3) 
     
 HM - Donald Rosenfeld 
 SUMSQ:77.7  
 SUMSQ Z:-0.504  
 STP:19.9 (5) 
 TAE:34.8 (4) 
 AAE:1.39 (4) 
     
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SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Friday, February 12, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #2: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for TUE through THU from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.
Good coverage but some spotty reporting.

PWM
11-FEB climate bulletins reported 0.11" liquid but 0" snow.
METAR carried all snow during the period of precipitation.
Previous days' 13.1: 1 SN:H20 was applied to the reported 0.11" liquid for an estimated daily snowfall of 1.5"

HYA
P- and 6-groups carried all 0s throughout the event.
VSBY briefly 3/4 SM; otherwise ... ~2 SM.
Estimated STP no more then 0.1"

SBY
PNSAKQ carried a report from a city official of 1".
Daily climate data shows 1" snow and 0.02" liquid (SN:H20 = 50:1)

PNSPHI carried reports from neighboring Sussex county ... DE where MAX snowfall of 0.7" came from Delmar located five miles north of SBY.  SBY/s reported 1" snowfall appears reasonable but not the liquid equivalent.

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No new daily records.

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Snow storm #2 underperformed with only two stations observing more than nuisance snowfall (>= 4").
Most stations (23 of 27) reported snowfall greater than Trace.


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A 'Call for Forecasts' was not issued for what turned out to be the main event 08-FEB b/c NWP failed again to capture the storm's intensity until it was too late.

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results SAT evening.

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming

Temperature change of -25°C over seven days & 10 mb flow reversal.


Images courtesy Japan Meteorological Agency.
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