CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 31-OCT-15 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '15 / '16 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
17th Annual 'Regular Season'
Contests start when the flakes start flyin'!

15th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries: 11:59 PM MON ... 30-NOV-15
Details here
Enter forecast here

Winter '15 / '16 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
16th Annual 'Regular Season'

FINAL Results and Standings here
Forecaster summary data here

14th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL Results and Standings here

Saturday, October 31, 2015

Winter '15 / '16 - 15th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest - Call for Forecasts!

NE.Wx's 15th annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is the absolute best ... biggest ... and probably ONLY chance to be recognized for your long-range forecasting acumen.

And it's easy.
All you have to do is forecast the season-total snowfall at 25 stations from RDU to CAR!

Deadline: MON ... 30-NOV-15 @ 11:59 PM EST

Visit the Contest's website to enter your forecast.
Follow the link at the top of the page to 'Enter Season-total Forecast.'

1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to your front door):
"The Snow Booklet" by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson (paperback and .pdf) and "Snow in America" by Bernard Mergan (hardcover)

As always ... NO cost ... NO fees ... NO advertising ... NO annoying requests for personal information to enter the contest.  NEWxSFC is just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best season-total snowfall forecast.

Forecast element: sum-total season snowfall @ each station
Forecast period: 01-DEC-15 through 31-MAR-16
Verification: NWS preliminary climate reports (CLM or CF6)

Error statistic: total absolute error [Σ abs(forecast - observed)]

Update your forecast as often as you want prior to the deadline.
Only your last entry gets verified.

The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is Don Sutherland.
Last year's 'Season-total' forecast summary ... verification ... and final results ==> here.

The Contest is open to amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters ... astrologers ... along with any other universally recognized classes of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras ... registered Nostradamusts ... non-violent megalomaniacs ... woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents ... pest detectives ... NE.Wx NG veterans and lurkers; refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather ... including self-imposed exiles from Eastern Wx ... and of course ... meteorologists.

In honor of USENET/s's patron saint Mr. Joseph Bartlo's final request (RIP) ... trolls ... goats ... hat3-lsiters ... and psests need not apply.

Monday, May 4, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - PDO: Variability Since 1661 CE

"Climate in the North Pacific and North American sectors has experienced interdecadal shifts during the 20th century. A network of recently developed tree-ring chronologies for Southern and Baja California extends the instrumental record, and reveals decadal-scale variability back to AD 1661.

"The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is closely matched by the dominant mode of tree-ring variability, which provides a preliminary view of multi-annual climate fluctuations spanning the past four centuries. The reconstructed PDO index features a prominent bidecadal oscillation, whose amplitude weakened in the late 1700s to mid-1800s.

"A comparison with proxy records of ENSO suggests that the greatest decadal-scale oscillations in Pacific climate between 1706 and 1977 occurred around 1750, 1905, and 1947."

"Reconstructed PDO since 1660.
Correlation between instrumental (dashed) and reconstructed PDO is 0.64 from 1925 to 1991.

"During warm periods, the eastern North Pacific is warmer than usual, and the central North Pacific
is cooler (viceversa during cool periods). Warm and cool PDO phases are qualitatively similar to warm
and cool ENSO events, but different because of slower temporal dynamics and stronger midlatitudinal responses."


Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #7: NESIS


Thursday, April 9, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - Above Normal Snowfall and the MIA Northern Annular Oscillations


Number of days between 01-DEC and 31-MAR:  121
Number of days between 01-DEC and 31-MAR where

NAO <= 0:  9
NAO <= -1:  0

NAO >= 1:  50
NAO >= 1.5:  18
NAO >= 2:  2

AO <= 0:  28
AO <= -1:  9
AO <= -1.5:  2

AO >= 1:  60
AO >= 1.5:  48
AO >= 2:  32
AO >= 3:  11
AO >= 4:  4
AO >= 5:  3

PNA >= 0:  85
PNA >= 1:  11
PNA >= 1.5:  0

Number of NEWxSFC stations with at least
100% normal snowfall:  22
150% normal snowfall:  9
200% normal snowfall:  3
250% normal snowfall:  1

AO - NAO - PNA (daily)
Meteorological winter '14 / '15
AO - NAO - PNA (7-day moving average)
Meteorological winter '14 / '15
AO - NAO - PNA (30-day moving average)
Meteorological winter '14 / '15

Something happenin' here.
What it is ain't exactly clear.

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Winter '14 / '15 - 14th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

Don Sutherland FTW!

The 'season-total' snowfall forecast contest/s error statistic is total absolute error.
For each forecast station ... the absolute value of (Forecast - Observed) is calculated ... then summed.
Forecasts with lower 'total absolute forecast' errors have more skill than those with higher 'total absolute forecast' errors.
P-O-R-N is the 'Period Of Record Normal' or climatology.
Skillful season-total forecasts beat climatology.
Lowest Station Errors
Forecaster STP Summary
Snowfall Totals (DJFM)
DEC Totals
JAN Totals
FEB Totals
MAR Totals
Everyone's forecast has been verified and posted to the Contest/s web site here.
Hope to see y'all back again next winter.

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Lowest Station Errors

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Forecaster STP Summary

Forecaster season-total snowfall forecasts are ranked by their departure from the observed season-total snowfall.  It does not show forecasts ranked by their accuracy.  Forecast accuracy is determined by the sum of absolute errors for all stations.

Red ==> 67th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Blue ==> 33rd percentile

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: Snowfall Totals (DJFM)

Despite the slow start to the season ... winter quickly made up for lost time between late JAN and MAR.
Season-total snowfall for all stations (1,336") came in 43% above the period-of-record normal (934"). 
Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile

STP for winter '14 / '15 ranks 3rd among other Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

Monthly station snowfall summary for MAR-15.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

Green ==> 75th percentile
White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile
Teleconnection Indexes
AO:  +1.837
NAO:  +1.45
PNA:  +0.49
PDO:  2.00
QBO:  -28.15 (monthly record)
MEI:  .650 (FEB-MAR)