Friday, April 12, 2024

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #3: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

BOS - Fenway Park
Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary
available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 Forecasts

Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.

Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Snowfall by Station

Forecaster Skill Score (measured against NWS ER WFOs)

Skill: positive values indicate the forecast/s percentage improvement over NWS forecasts.

Bias:  the arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and the average Observed snowfall (avgForecast - avgObserved).


Shillelagh said...

Thanks TQ. Tough forecast to win given the narrow range of affected stations.

TQ said...

you be welcome. tru dat about being a tough forecast. not quite contest worthy. only the 5th contest storm in APR. the last one was back in '11.

Anonymous said...

Coming in 2nd to Master Obi Wan Sutherland is feat I will gladly take pride in thanks TQ for another season of the contest