Winter '22 / '23 - 24th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

After FOUR contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least THREE forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).

Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).

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Winter '22 / '23 - 22nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

NYC ... 5th Ave.
Alfred Stieglitz.(1892)

Congratulations to snowman for issuing the best season-total snowfall forecast for Winter '22 / '23.

Complete forecaster verification table at the Contest web site.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_24/season-total/season_total_verification_2223.htm

Forecasters ranked ascending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE).

BLUE ==> 1st Quartile
WHITE ==>  Interquartile range
RED ==> 4th Quartile
ORANGE:  Winter '22 / '23 Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster (winner of  '21 / '22 contest)

The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how much the forecast was an improvement over Period-Of-Record-Normal (PORN).  Skillful forecasts beat PORN.

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Winter '22 / '23 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Snowfall Totals

Woodstock ... VT (c.1890)

CORR:  snowfall at CON should be 20.4"
Departure:  8.6"
%MAR:  173%

MAR-23 snowfall summary by forecast station.
Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable).

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MAR Forecast Station Highlights
8 northern tier stations exceeded their monthly snowfall climatology.

Biggest Losers
9 stations observed trace amounts.
2 stations not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed.

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Season-Total-to-Date
MAR P-O-R-N contributes 184" (20%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 934".
MAR-23 observed snowfall:  176" (96% of monthly P-O-R-N; 19% of normal season-total snowfall).

Image courtesy NOHRSC http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/ norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv

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DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here
FEB snowfall totals here