Winter '22 / '23 - 24th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

After FOUR contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least THREE forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).

Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).

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Best Forecasts by Storm (lowest SUMSQ Error Z-Scores)

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms [Error statistic:  Sum of Squared Errors Z (SUMSQ Z)]

SUMSQ Error Z is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms [Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error Z (TAE)]

TAE Error Z is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall forecast errors at each station.

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms [Error statistic:  R-squared Z (RSQ Z)]

RSQ is a measure of the how well the 'forecast' snowfall captured the variability of the 'observed' snowfall (higher the better).

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Forecasters' Skill Scores [(Forecaster Z-score - NWS ER WFOs Z-score) / ER NWS WFOs Z-Score]

The skill score measures forecaster performance against a standard measure (NWS ER WFOs).  Positive (negative) values indicate better (worse) performance compared to the standard.  0% for NWS does not indicate 'no skill.'

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19 unique forecasters submitted a total of 1,006 station forecasts.
6 forecasters entered all 4 contests.
4 forecasters entered 3 contests.
4 forecasters entered 2 contests.
5 forecasters entered 1 contest.

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Hope to see y'all again next winter!