Saturday, April 8, 2023

Winter '22 / '23 - 24th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

After FOUR contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least THREE forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).

Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).

Best Forecasts by Storm (lowest SUMSQ Error Z-Scores)

Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms [Error statistic:  Sum of Squared Errors Z (SUMSQ Z)]

SUMSQ Error Z is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms [Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error Z (TAE)]

TAE Error Z is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall forecast errors at each station.

Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms [Error statistic:  R-squared Z (RSQ Z)]

RSQ is a measure of the how well the 'forecast' snowfall captured the variability of the 'observed' snowfall (higher the better).

Forecasters' Skill Scores [(Forecaster Z-score - NWS ER WFOs Z-score) / ER NWS WFOs Z-Score]

The skill score measures forecaster performance against a standard measure (NWS ER WFOs).  Positive (negative) values indicate better (worse) performance compared to the standard.  0% for NWS does not indicate 'no skill.'

19 unique forecasters submitted a total of 1,006 station forecasts.
6 forecasters entered all 4 contests.
4 forecasters entered 3 contests.
4 forecasters entered 2 contests.
5 forecasters entered 1 contest.

Hope to see y'all again next winter!


Shillelagh said...

Thanks TQ! And congrats (again) to Don Sutherland, who beat up on the hapless competion. ;)

TQ said...

someday don will have to let us all in on his secret sauce recipe ...

Anonymous said...

Tick tock ...

Anonymous said...

Is there going to be a winter 23-24 seasonal contest?

Anonymous said...

TQ we hope all is well.

In event no forecast contest is running by Dec 2 or 3, I will post info on an alternate forecast contest location and we will try to keep this forecast contest concept going. If the site rejuvenates later, that restart can always be swept into this site again. So there will be an opportunity to submit a forecast for the usual locations and we could also try to organize storm contests.

I would probably set up these alternate contests on American Weather Forum. I am not going to do anything about it until weekend of Dec 2-3 and there would probably be a Dec 10 deadline for winter forecasts, I know about four of the regulars from American Weather Forum but I am under impression at least half of the regular entrants here are not on American Weather Forum, look in at general interest section where you'll see a contest thread for Dec 2023 (a regular feature, not anything to do with this situation), and I discuss this in that thread.

-- Roger Smith

will return on or about Dec 2 to see if any new info, so if you're wanting to participate in a plan B if necessary, wait until Dec 3 or 4 and look in again, perhaps we'll have a solution by then.

Don said...

I hope TQ is ok. The silence is unsettling. Even if there is no contest, it would be good to know that he's all right. --Don

Anonymous said...

Thanks Roger, and totally agree Don. Hooe all is well.with TQ -Syrmax/Shillelagh

Anonymous said...

I heard through a contact that TQ is okay and could be on site soon with news about a contest opening date etc, so I will take no further action unless nothing happens before Dec 7th, if that were the case, I would post here again with details on where an alternative location would be (Dec 15 deadline if so), but I don't want the extra work and would greatly prefer if TQ does things in the usual way as that is g-r-r-r-eat as they say. -- Roger Smith

TQ said...

i'm good.
thx to all for your continued interest.

had been on the fence about running the Contests again this year until the wx turned cold recently. now i'm in the mood.

web site updated.
blog updated.
facebook update in process.
email notices starting to going out this evening.

Anonymous said...

Glad to hear all of the above, TQ, I will plug this site on Am-Wx and see if we can get a few more people into the contests. -- Roger Smith

TQ said...

tyvm roger

Don said...

I'm happy to learn that you're ok, TQ. I look forward to participating. Stay well.--Don