Thursday, December 1, 2022

Winter '22 / '23 - 22nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: The Forecasts!

NYC - Central Park
Alfred Eisenstaedt (1959)


Welcome back all the veterans of winters' past.
No Rookies or Interns this year. Those who were in recent years have moved up to Journeyman this year.

Good Luck to All 🍀🍀🍀

Senior NEWxSFC forecaster Steve Okonski (Any.Wx) ... having made the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '21 / '22 (as well as '04 / '05 and two 2nd place finishes along the way) ... is back this year to defend his 'Chief Season-total Forecaster' title.

Forecasters also compete against the Period-of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N) and CONSENSUS.

Table below ranked by ascending season-total snowfall.

BLUE - 1st quartile
RED - 4th quartile

ORANGE - current Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster
GREEN - past Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster

P-O-R-N - Period-Of-Record-Normal
CONSENSUS - median of each station's forecasts

Forecasts issued with decimal values have been recorded as such for verification purposes;  however ... rounding was applied for display purposes only.

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Forecasters:  21
Total station forecasts:  575 (includes P-O-R-N & CONSENSUS)

Station forecasts for snowfall ...
BELOW average - 282 (49%)
AVERAGE - 26 (5%)
ABOVE average - 267 (46%)

Count of stations with 'likely' confidence (>= 65% of all forecasts by station) with ...
- ABOVE average snowfall:  0
- BELOW average snowfall:  0


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All forecasts at the Contest/s web site here (direct link to forecasts here).

Our individual snow storm forecast contests start when the flakes start flyin' from a contest-worthy storm.

'Call for Forecasts' announcements issued on the blog ... web site ... Facebook ... and via email.