Thursday, December 1, 2022

Winter '22 / '23 - 22nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: The Forecasts!

NYC - Central Park
Alfred Eisenstaedt (1959)

Welcome back all the veterans of winters' past.
No Rookies or Interns this year. Those who were in recent years have moved up to Journeyman this year.

Good Luck to All 🍀🍀🍀

Senior NEWxSFC forecaster Steve Okonski (Any.Wx) ... having made the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '21 / '22 (as well as '04 / '05 and two 2nd place finishes along the way) ... is back this year to defend his 'Chief Season-total Forecaster' title.

Forecasters also compete against the Period-of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N) and CONSENSUS.

Table below ranked by ascending season-total snowfall.

BLUE - 1st quartile
RED - 4th quartile

ORANGE - current Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster
GREEN - past Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster

P-O-R-N - Period-Of-Record-Normal
CONSENSUS - median of each station's forecasts

Forecasts issued with decimal values have been recorded as such for verification purposes;  however ... rounding was applied for display purposes only.

Forecasters:  21
Total station forecasts:  575 (includes P-O-R-N & CONSENSUS)

Station forecasts for snowfall ...
BELOW average - 282 (49%)
AVERAGE - 26 (5%)
ABOVE average - 267 (46%)

Count of stations with 'likely' confidence (>= 65% of all forecasts by station) with ...
- ABOVE average snowfall:  0
- BELOW average snowfall:  0

All forecasts at the Contest/s web site here (direct link to forecasts here).

Our individual snow storm forecast contests start when the flakes start flyin' from a contest-worthy storm.

'Call for Forecasts' announcements issued on the blog ... web site ... Facebook ... and via email.


Anonymous said...

Thanks again for this contest, hope we get some decent storms this winter. Clearly one person is expecting something rather historic. I'm well protected against biggest busts anyway ... if you have an idle moment, check out the color codes in the forecast table, especially around PVD, something a bit off about one or two of them. Not that it matters much in the grand scheme of things. Serenity now. -- Roger Smith

TQ said...

delighted to see you back for another winter RS. season-totals over the past 4 years have been sub par especially '19 / '20 'cept of course CAR at +1 STD above normal with 146".

thx for the QC on the data table. i'll have a look ...

TQ said...

didn't see anything amiss in the forecaster data table. can you describe what looks off?

Anonymous said...

It was just a few color codes for amounts that seemed to be misplaced, but I realize now that most of them are due to decimal places perhaps removing amounts but not percentages, for example check these ...

for PVD, a couple of 38" forecasts don't have the red color code (but maybe they are okay)

for PHL - ACY, it looked like red color code had strayed one box right (at the 24" PHL forecast) but maybe that's okay too ...

The one that I still think needs fixing and the reason I noticed this at all as it's in my forecast line, PHL 35" and ACY 22" have no color code then a blue (low) color code but I think both should be red.

Any other examples where forecast and % are different are probably close to category boundaries. -- RS

TQ said...

tyvm. looking at it now ...

TQ said...

another great catch. tyvm. i need to up my QC game! i use excel's conditional formatting. i saw where it's been misapplied in your PHL/ACY forecasts. probably from adding and deleting rows as the number of forecasters varies from year-to-year. probably same problem for other stations too. needs to be fixed. will shoot you email when it's fixed ...

Anonymous said...

No worries, I wouldn't have spotted it except for the fact it happened to fall in two rather large forecasts that I made and was comparing to the field when I looked at the table. If you haven't already sent, don't worry about the e-mail. -- RS

TQ said...

not worried but grateful for your help. always good to have a 2nd set of eyes looking at the work. email was sent last night piggy-backed on your entry.