Winter '21 / '22 - 23nd Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results
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Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).
Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).
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Best Forecasts by Storm (lowest SUMSQ Error Z-Scores)
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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic: Sum of Squared Errors Z - SUMSQ Z)
SUMSQ Error Z is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.
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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic: Total Absolute Error Z - TAE)
TAE Error Z is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall forecast errors at each station.
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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic: R-squared Z - RSQ Z)
RSQ is a measure of the how well the 'forecast' snowfall captured the variability of the 'observed' snowfall (higher the better).
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Forecaster's Skill Score (Forecaster Z-score - NWS ER WFOs Z-score) / ER NWS WFOs Z-Score
Skill score measures forecaster performance against a standard (NWS ER WFOs). Positive (negative) values indicate better (worse) performance compared to the standard. 0% for NWS does not indicate 'no skill.'
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19 unique forecasters submitted a total of 1,623 station forecasts.
6 forecasters entered all 5 contests.
4 forecasters entered 4 contests.
5 forecasters entered 3 contests.
1 forecasters entered 2 contests.
3 forecasters entered 1 contest.
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Hope to see y'all again next winter!
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