Winter '21 / '22 - 23nd Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

VT

After FIVE contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least FOUR forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).
Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).

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Best Forecasts by Storm (lowest SUMSQ Error Z-Scores)

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic:  Sum of Squared Errors Z - SUMSQ Z)

SUMSQ Error Z is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error Z - TAE)

TAE Error Z is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall forecast errors at each station.

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic:  R-squared Z - RSQ Z)

RSQ is a measure of the how well the 'forecast' snowfall captured the variability of the 'observed' snowfall (higher the better).

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Forecaster's Skill Score (Forecaster Z-score - NWS ER WFOs Z-score) / ER NWS WFOs Z-Score

Skill score measures forecaster performance against a standard (NWS ER WFOs).  Positive (negative) values indicate better (worse) performance compared to the standard.  0% for NWS does not indicate 'no skill.'

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19 unique forecasters submitted a total of 1,623 station forecasts.
6 forecasters entered all 5 contests.
4 forecasters entered 4 contests.
5 forecasters entered 3 contests.
1 forecasters entered 2 contests.
3 forecasters entered 1 contest.

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Hope to see y'all again next winter!