Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Winter '21 / '22 - 21st Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results


Congratulations to Any.Wx for issuing the best season-total snowfall forecast for Winter '21 / '22.

Complete forecaster verification table at the Contest web site.

Forecasters ranked ascending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE).

BLUE ==> 1st Quartile
WHITE ==>  Interquartile range
RED ==> 4th Quartile
ORANGE:  Winter '21 / '22 Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster (winner of  '20 / '21 contest)

The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how much the forecast was an improvement over Period-Of-Record-Normal (PORN).  Skillful forecasts beat PORN.

Forecasters' stations having the lowest absolute error.

Winter '21 / '22 ranks 12th among the 18 Contest seasons since Winter '04 / '05 ... the winter when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.

Season-total snowfall for Winter '21 / 22 for all forecast stations (818") came in 12% below the Period-Of-Record Normal (925").

Station Climo ... Observed Snowfall ... Departure from Normal ... and Percent of Normal Snowfall

DEC snowfall totals:

JAN snowfall totals:

FEB snowfall totals:

MAR snowfall totals:

Season-total snowfall analysis courtesy NOHRSC


1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to Any.Wx/s front door):
... pick of the litter from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
... the august title 'Chief Season-total Snowfall Forecaster' for Winter '22 / '23
... a well-deserved place of honor with past Contest winners

2nd place prize (delivered post-paid right to Shillelagh/s front door):
... second pick at NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

3rd place prize (delivered post-paid right to kevinmyatt/s front door):
... third pick at NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

Prizes winners: please contact (newxsfc [at] comcast [dot] net) with a USPS address.


Shillelagh said...

Bridesmaid yet again. LoL. Thx for doing this TQ!

TQ said...

yes yes ... bridesmaid again ... for the 7th time!

your ship is bound to come in one of these days ...

TQ said...

sorry don. my bad. accidentally deleted his comment congratulating Any.Wx (ne.wx veteran and long-time friend of newxsfc steve okonski)