Sunday, April 17, 2022

Winter '21 / '22 - 23nd Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

VT
After FIVE contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least FOUR forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).
Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).


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Best Forecasts by Storm (lowest SUMSQ Error Z-Scores)

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic:  Sum of Squared Errors Z - SUMSQ Z)

SUMSQ Error Z is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error Z - TAE)

TAE Error Z is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall forecast errors at each station.

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Top 10 Forecasts - All Storms (Error statistic:  R-squared Z - RSQ Z)

RSQ is a measure of the how well the 'forecast' snowfall captured the variability of the 'observed' snowfall (higher the better).

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Forecaster's Skill Score (Forecaster Z-score - NWS ER WFOs Z-score) / ER NWS WFOs Z-Score

Skill score measures forecaster performance against a standard (NWS ER WFOs).  Positive (negative) values indicate better (worse) performance compared to the standard.  0% for NWS does not indicate 'no skill.'

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19 unique forecasters submitted a total of 1,623 station forecasts.
6 forecasters entered all 5 contests.
4 forecasters entered 4 contests.
5 forecasters entered 3 contests.
1 forecasters entered 2 contests.
3 forecasters entered 1 contest.

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Hope to see y'all again next winter!

2 comments:

Shillelagh said...

I finished 2nd in both contests? Sort of like losing the Super Bowl twice in one season. Congrats to Don! Always great forecasts.

TQ said...

you got this bridesmaid thing down pat. quite remarkable i'd say ...