Sunday, April 14, 2024

Winter '23 / '24 - 23nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

BWI - Park Avenue (1948)
Congratulations to Senior Forecaster WXCHEMIST for issuing the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '23 / '24.  WXCHEMIST also issued the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '13 / '14.

Complete forecaster verification table at the Contest/s web site.

Forecasters ranked ascending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE).

BLUE ==> 1st Quartile
WHITE / GREY ==>  Interquartile range
RED ==> 4th Quartile
ORANGE:  Winter '22 / '23 Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster (winner of  '21 / '22 contest)

The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how much the forecast was better or worse than the Period-Of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N).  Skillful forecasts beat P-O-R-N.

Forecasters' stations with the lowest absolute error

Historical season-total snowfalls

Season-total snowfall for Winter '23 / '24 for all forecast stations (515") was 55% of the Period-Of-Record Normal (936").

Winter '23 / '24 ranks 19th among the 20 'season-total' Contests since Winter '04 / '05 ... the winter when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.  It was the 6th consecutive winter with below normal season-total snowfall.  The lowest season-total' snowfall occurred during a moderate La Nina Winter '11 / '12 when 393" was observed.

Station Climo ... Observed Snowfall ... Departure from Normal ... and Percent of Normal Snowfall

No station observed at least 100% of their season-total P-O-R-N snowfall.

Monthly snowfall totals




Areal coverage of season-total snowfall

Analysis courtesy NOHRSC


1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to WXCHEMIST/s front door):
... pick of the litter from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
... the august and highly coveted title of 'Chief Season-total Snowfall Forecaster' for Winter '23 / '24
... a well-deserved place of honor with past Contest winners

2nd place prize (delivered post-paid right to Jessica Cain/s front door):
... second pick from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

3rd place prize (delivered post-paid right to donsutherland1/s front door):
... third pick from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

Prizes winners: please contact (newxsfc [at] comcast [dot] net) with a USPS address.


Anonymous said...

Congratulations WXCHEMIST and Jessica.

Shillelagh said...

Congrats to wxchemist and JC. And thanks TQ! Hope we do it again next winter. Maybe it'll even snow some...

Anonymous said...

LOL I would need five winters of 2023-2024 to come close ... thanks TQ for deciding to go one more time, we can't lose this valuable outlet. -- RS

TQ said...

even though i wasn't expecting a record-setting blockbuster winter ... the resulting paucity of snowfall was a real surprise. the turnout for this winter's 'season-total' and snow storm' contests was quite encouraging which motivates me to keep this enterprise going.

Don said...

I hope you keep the contest going, TQ. The near absence of snowfall isn't fun, but the contest is.

Congratulations WXCHEMIST and Jessica on the season-total forecast.

TQ said...

thanks for your encouraging words Don. the more forecasters who enter gives me more motivation to keep the Contest going.