Winter '23 / '24 - 23nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results
BWI - Park Avenue (1948) |
Complete forecaster verification table at the Contest/s web site.
Forecasters ranked ascending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE).
BLUE ==> 1st Quartile
WHITE / GREY ==> Interquartile range
RED ==> 4th Quartile
ORANGE: Winter '22 / '23 Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster (winner of '21 / '22 contest)
The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how much the forecast was better or worse than the Period-Of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N). Skillful forecasts beat P-O-R-N.
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Forecasters' stations with the lowest absolute error
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Historical season-total snowfalls
Season-total snowfall for Winter '23 / '24 for all forecast stations (515") was 55% of the Period-Of-Record Normal (936").
Winter '23 / '24 ranks 19th among the 20 'season-total' Contests since
Winter '04 / '05 ... the winter when BGR and BGM were added to the
station list. It was the 6th consecutive winter with below normal
season-total snowfall. The lowest season-total' snowfall occurred
during a moderate La Nina Winter '11 / '12 when 393" was observed.
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Station Climo ... Observed Snowfall ... Departure from Normal ... and Percent of Normal Snowfall
No station observed at least 100% of their season-total P-O-R-N snowfall.
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Monthly snowfall totals
DEC
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2024/01/winter-23-24-season-total-snowfall.html
JAN
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2024/02/winter-23-24-season-total-snowfall.html
FEB
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2024/03/winter-23-24-season-total-snowfall.html
MAR
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2024/04/winter-23-24-season-total-snowfall.html
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Areal coverage of season-total snowfall
Analysis courtesy NOHRSC
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Teleconnections
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PRIZES
1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to WXCHEMIST/s front door):
... pick of the litter from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
... the august and highly coveted title of 'Chief Season-total Snowfall Forecaster' for Winter '23 / '24
... a well-deserved place of honor with past Contest winners
2nd place prize (delivered post-paid right to Jessica Cain/s front door):
... second pick from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
3rd place prize (delivered post-paid right to donsutherland1/s front door):
... third pick from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
Prizes winners: please contact (newxsfc [at] comcast [dot] net) with a USPS address.
6 comments:
Congratulations WXCHEMIST and Jessica.
Congrats to wxchemist and JC. And thanks TQ! Hope we do it again next winter. Maybe it'll even snow some...
LOL I would need five winters of 2023-2024 to come close ... thanks TQ for deciding to go one more time, we can't lose this valuable outlet. -- RS
even though i wasn't expecting a record-setting blockbuster winter ... the resulting paucity of snowfall was a real surprise. the turnout for this winter's 'season-total' and snow storm' contests was quite encouraging which motivates me to keep this enterprise going.
I hope you keep the contest going, TQ. The near absence of snowfall isn't fun, but the contest is.
Congratulations WXCHEMIST and Jessica on the season-total forecast.
thanks for your encouraging words Don. the more forecasters who enter gives me more motivation to keep the Contest going.
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