Winter '23 / '24 - 23nd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

BWI - Park Avenue (1948)

Congratulations to Senior Forecaster WXCHEMIST for issuing the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '23 / '24.  WXCHEMIST also issued the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '13 / '14.

Complete forecaster verification table at the Contest/s web site.

Forecasters ranked ascending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE).

BLUE ==> 1st Quartile
WHITE / GREY ==>  Interquartile range
RED ==> 4th Quartile
ORANGE:  Winter '22 / '23 Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster (winner of  '21 / '22 contest)

The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how much the forecast was better or worse than the Period-Of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N).  Skillful forecasts beat P-O-R-N.

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Forecasters' stations with the lowest absolute error

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Historical season-total snowfalls

Season-total snowfall for Winter '23 / '24 for all forecast stations (515") was 55% of the Period-Of-Record Normal (936").

Winter '23 / '24 ranks 19th among the 20 'season-total' Contests since Winter '04 / '05 ... the winter when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.  It was the 6th consecutive winter with below normal season-total snowfall.  The lowest season-total' snowfall occurred during a moderate La Nina Winter '11 / '12 when 393" was observed.

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Station Climo ... Observed Snowfall ... Departure from Normal ... and Percent of Normal Snowfall

No station observed at least 100% of their season-total P-O-R-N snowfall.

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Monthly snowfall totals
DEC
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2024/01/winter-23-24-season-total-snowfall.html

JAN
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2024/02/winter-23-24-season-total-snowfall.html

FEB
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2024/03/winter-23-24-season-total-snowfall.html

MAR
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2024/04/winter-23-24-season-total-snowfall.html

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Areal coverage of season-total snowfall

Analysis courtesy NOHRSC

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Teleconnections

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PRIZES
1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to WXCHEMIST/s front door):
... pick of the litter from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
... the august and highly coveted title of 'Chief Season-total Snowfall Forecaster' for Winter '23 / '24
... a well-deserved place of honor with past Contest winners

2nd place prize (delivered post-paid right to Jessica Cain/s front door):
... second pick from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

3rd place prize (delivered post-paid right to donsutherland1/s front door):
... third pick from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

Prizes winners: please contact (newxsfc [at] comcast [dot] net) with a USPS address.