CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 11-APR-20 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

Snow Storm #1 (01-DEC-19)
FINAL Results here

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19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
20th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here
Forecaster verification table here

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: FINAL Results


SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #8 at the Contest/s web site here.

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: Preliminary Verification


UPDATE 2:
Delayed issuance of SBY climate bulletins carried 5" STP coinciding with local media report in PNSAKQ.  CLI STP at odds with METAR data; however...it is what it is.

UPDATE @ 3:42 PM 
Re-analysis of SBY 6-group and P-group data indicates 0.39" liquid and 3.9" STP at 10:1 SN:H2O.

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Original post @ 10:01 AM
Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Sunday and Monday from CDUS41 and CXUS51.

Good coverage and reporting.

SBY/s 1.8" STP estimated from the METAR 6-group at 10:1 SN:H2O.

Six new daily records
SUN...16-MAR-14
IAD - 6.6" (1.6"; 1978)
ACY - 2.2" (1.7"; 1978)

MON...17-MAR-14
PHL - 4.7" (3.5"; 1892)
IAD - 4.5" (1.9"; 1965)
DCA - 3.9" (1.9"; 1965)
ACY - 3.7" (1.6"; 1965)




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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results Wednesday evening.

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: FINAL Results



SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #7 at the Contest/s web site here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: The Forecasts!


Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 6
TOT 8

101 station forecasts.


Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.


Heaviest snowfall (+4") consensus across DC-BATLO metro area extending onto the Delmarva with the lollypop expected at IAD.  Another consensus about whether this was a contest-worthy event!


<still speechless>

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Saturday, March 15, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Wednesday and Thursday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.  Good coverage and reporting.

HYA/s 0.25" STP estimated from vicinity reports and KHYA METARs.

Two new daily records
WED:
BTV - 15.2" (7.2"; 1959)

THU:
CAR - 9.4" (8.7"; 1953)

Many SLRs contaminated by mixed precipitation.

00z 13-MAR-14


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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results Sunday evening.

Great Blizzard of 1888: 13-MAR-1888

13-MAR-1888
10 PM M-A temps in the skinny teens.
Zero in Marquette...MI

Friday, March 14, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: Call for Forecasts

Great Blizzard of 1888
UPDATE 2:
Specified end of verification period as 11:59 PM EDT MON 17-MAR-14

UPDATE:
SAT/s 12z GFS points to a contest-worthy event!

Wx GO!

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Mid-Atlantic appears to be in line for a relatively late-season snowfall featuring the interaction between cold air damming and weak waves of LOW pressure migrating NE along an arctic frontal boundary.

Contest for Storm #8 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

Please note the 'Call for Forecasts' e-mails and updates to the Contest/s web site will be delayed a few hours this evening.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall

Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EDT...SAT...15-MAR-14

Verification period begins:  12:01 AM EDT SUN...16-MAR-14

Verification period ends:  11:59 PM EDT MON...17-MAR-14

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Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Thursday, March 13, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: The Forecasts

9 forecasters
Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 7

160 station forecasts.


Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.


Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus across north and northwestern stations with lollypops expected at BTV and CAR.


<speechless>

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site here.

Sorry for the 24-hour delay posting the forecasts.
Posting of the preliminary verifications will be delayed until Saturday.

Monday, March 10, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: Call for Forecasts!

DC - 1917

'Call for Forecasts' being issued despite the current forecast appearing marginal for a contest-worthy event on Wednesday.  Would hate to let  a late-season event slip thorough the cracks.

Contest for Storm #7 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EDT TUE...11-MAR-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EDT WED...12-MAR-14
Verification ends:  11:59 PM EDT THU...13-MAR-14

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Final Results


SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank


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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #6 at the Contest/s web site here.

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Monday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

Good coverage and reporting.

HYA/s 2" STP estimated from PNSBOX vicinity reports.

No new daily records; however...IAD tied their record of 4.9" set in 1978.

15z 03-MAR-14
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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results Wednesday evening.

Sunday, March 2, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: The Forecasts!

13 forecasters
Rookie 1 (Welcome ezwx!)
Intern 1
Journeyman 1
Senior 10
TOT 13

182 station forecasts.


Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.
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Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for a northern mid-Atlantic event with lollypops expected along the DC-BWI corridor.
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AO rides to the rescue (again).
NAO MIA (again).

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.


Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: RAW Forecasts

Here.

Saturday, March 1, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Call for Forecasts!

VT
NOTE:  Deadline for entries 7 PM SUN!
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Complicated synoptic situation in store regarding the verification period for Storm #6.

NWP progs snow to begin accumulating at some M-A forecast stations by 00z/03-MAR-14 which is why the verification period will begin 12:01 AM SUN...02-MAR-14.

Twelve forecast stations along and north of a BGM - BDR - PVD line are excluded for Storm #6 because Sunday/s snowfall amounts at many these northern stations will 1) likely be in the nuisance category (< 4"), 2) already on the ground before the deadline, and 3) not involved to any great extent for the main event on Monday.

Excluded stations:
BGM
ALB
BDL
BDR
ORH
BOS
PVD
CON
PWM
BTV
BGR
CAR

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  7 PM EST...SUN...02-MAR-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST SUN...02-MAR-14
Verification ends:  11:59 PM EST MON...03-MAR-14

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).