CONTEST STATUS - Updated: FRI ... 14-JUL-17 @ 8:30 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Season starts when the first flakes start a'flyin'

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17th Annual 'Season-total'
Entries accepted between 01-NOV-17 and 30-NOV-17
Verification period: 01-DEC-17 through 31-MAR-18

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: FINAL Results


SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #8 at the Contest/s web site here.

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: Preliminary Verification


UPDATE 2:
Delayed issuance of SBY climate bulletins carried 5" STP coinciding with local media report in PNSAKQ.  CLI STP at odds with METAR data; however...it is what it is.

UPDATE @ 3:42 PM 
Re-analysis of SBY 6-group and P-group data indicates 0.39" liquid and 3.9" STP at 10:1 SN:H2O.

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Original post @ 10:01 AM
Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Sunday and Monday from CDUS41 and CXUS51.

Good coverage and reporting.

SBY/s 1.8" STP estimated from the METAR 6-group at 10:1 SN:H2O.

Six new daily records
SUN...16-MAR-14
IAD - 6.6" (1.6"; 1978)
ACY - 2.2" (1.7"; 1978)

MON...17-MAR-14
PHL - 4.7" (3.5"; 1892)
IAD - 4.5" (1.9"; 1965)
DCA - 3.9" (1.9"; 1965)
ACY - 3.7" (1.6"; 1965)




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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results Wednesday evening.

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: FINAL Results



SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #7 at the Contest/s web site here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: The Forecasts!


Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 6
TOT 8

101 station forecasts.


Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.


Heaviest snowfall (+4") consensus across DC-BATLO metro area extending onto the Delmarva with the lollypop expected at IAD.  Another consensus about whether this was a contest-worthy event!


<still speechless>

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Saturday, March 15, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Wednesday and Thursday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.  Good coverage and reporting.

HYA/s 0.25" STP estimated from vicinity reports and KHYA METARs.

Two new daily records
WED:
BTV - 15.2" (7.2"; 1959)

THU:
CAR - 9.4" (8.7"; 1953)

Many SLRs contaminated by mixed precipitation.

00z 13-MAR-14


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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results Sunday evening.

Great Blizzard of 1888: 13-MAR-1888

13-MAR-1888
10 PM M-A temps in the skinny teens.
Zero in Marquette...MI

Friday, March 14, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #8: Call for Forecasts

Great Blizzard of 1888
UPDATE 2:
Specified end of verification period as 11:59 PM EDT MON 17-MAR-14

UPDATE:
SAT/s 12z GFS points to a contest-worthy event!

Wx GO!

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Mid-Atlantic appears to be in line for a relatively late-season snowfall featuring the interaction between cold air damming and weak waves of LOW pressure migrating NE along an arctic frontal boundary.

Contest for Storm #8 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

Please note the 'Call for Forecasts' e-mails and updates to the Contest/s web site will be delayed a few hours this evening.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall

Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EDT...SAT...15-MAR-14

Verification period begins:  12:01 AM EDT SUN...16-MAR-14

Verification period ends:  11:59 PM EDT MON...17-MAR-14

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Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Thursday, March 13, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: The Forecasts

9 forecasters
Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 7

160 station forecasts.


Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.


Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus across north and northwestern stations with lollypops expected at BTV and CAR.


<speechless>

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site here.

Sorry for the 24-hour delay posting the forecasts.
Posting of the preliminary verifications will be delayed until Saturday.

Monday, March 10, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: Call for Forecasts!

DC - 1917

'Call for Forecasts' being issued despite the current forecast appearing marginal for a contest-worthy event on Wednesday.  Would hate to let  a late-season event slip thorough the cracks.

Contest for Storm #7 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EDT TUE...11-MAR-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EDT WED...12-MAR-14
Verification ends:  11:59 PM EDT THU...13-MAR-14

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Final Results


SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank


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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #6 at the Contest/s web site here.

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Monday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

Good coverage and reporting.

HYA/s 2" STP estimated from PNSBOX vicinity reports.

No new daily records; however...IAD tied their record of 4.9" set in 1978.

15z 03-MAR-14
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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results Wednesday evening.

Sunday, March 2, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: The Forecasts!

13 forecasters
Rookie 1 (Welcome ezwx!)
Intern 1
Journeyman 1
Senior 10
TOT 13

182 station forecasts.


Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.
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Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for a northern mid-Atlantic event with lollypops expected along the DC-BWI corridor.
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AO rides to the rescue (again).
NAO MIA (again).

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.


Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: RAW Forecasts

Here.

Saturday, March 1, 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Call for Forecasts!

VT
NOTE:  Deadline for entries 7 PM SUN!
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Complicated synoptic situation in store regarding the verification period for Storm #6.

NWP progs snow to begin accumulating at some M-A forecast stations by 00z/03-MAR-14 which is why the verification period will begin 12:01 AM SUN...02-MAR-14.

Twelve forecast stations along and north of a BGM - BDR - PVD line are excluded for Storm #6 because Sunday/s snowfall amounts at many these northern stations will 1) likely be in the nuisance category (< 4"), 2) already on the ground before the deadline, and 3) not involved to any great extent for the main event on Monday.

Excluded stations:
BGM
ALB
BDL
BDR
ORH
BOS
PVD
CON
PWM
BTV
BGR
CAR

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  7 PM EST...SUN...02-MAR-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST SUN...02-MAR-14
Verification ends:  11:59 PM EST MON...03-MAR-14

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).