CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SUN ... 10-JAN-21 @ 3:45 PM EST
20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Deadline for entries has passed.
The Forecasts! here

Wednesday, February 25, 2015
Saturday, February 21, 2015
Winter '14 / '15 - Interim Standings: 4
Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in these interim standings.
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Complete interim statistics table and charts at the Contest/s web site here.
All verified forecast statistics from all forecasters for all Winter '14 / '15 contest storms here.
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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings.
If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.
Friday, February 20, 2015
Thursday, February 19, 2015
Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #6: FINAL Results
Full forecast verifications and summary for Storm #6 at the Contest/s web site.
1st - Donald Rosenfeld | ||||
SUMSQ: | 31.60 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -0.935 | |||
STP: | 5.2 | (1) | ||
TAE: | 20.2 | (1) | ||
AAE: | 0.88 | (1) | ||
2nd - Brad Yehl | ||||
SUMSQ: | 40.01 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -0.814 | |||
STP: | 12.8 | (3) | ||
TAE: | 24.6 | (4) | ||
AAE: | 0.99 | (2) | ||
3rd - WeatherT | ||||
SUMSQ: | 44.9 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -0.743 | |||
STP: | 14.3 | (5) | ||
TAE: | 22.9 | (2) | ||
AAE: | 1.00 | (3) | ||
HM - donsutherland1 | ||||
SUMSQ: | 45.2 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -0.739 | |||
STP: | 12.9 | (4) | ||
TAE: | 24.3 | (3) | ||
AAE: | 1.01 | (4) | ||
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
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Click images to enlarge.
Wednesday, February 18, 2015
Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #6: Preliminary Verification
SBY/s STP estimated by applying RIC/s SN:H2O (10.4:1) to SBY/s storm-total liquid precipitation.
HYA/s STP interpolated from vicinity reports carried in PNSBOX.
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One new daily record
TUE ... 17-FEB-15
ISP - 3.4" (2.5"; 1996)
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Interesting to see the dramatic difference in SN:H2O where the 850-700 mb layer was warmer over southern portions of the forecast area.
Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results THU evening.
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #5: FINAL Results
Full forecast verifications and summary for Storm #5 at the Contest/s web site.
1st - TQ | ||||
SUMSQ: | 379.25 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -1.436 | |||
STP: | 27.5 | (1) | ||
TAE: | 56.3 | (1) | ||
AAE: | 2.09 | (1) | ||
2nd - donsutherland1 | ||||
SUMSQ: | 477.79 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -1.194 | |||
STP: | 42.2 | (2) | ||
TAE: | 69.0 | (2) | ||
AAE: | 2.56 | (2) | ||
3rd - Mitchel Volk | ||||
SUMSQ: | 590.9 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -0.916 | |||
STP: | 44.5 | (4) | ||
TAE: | 79.8 | (4) | ||
AAE: | 3.07 | (4) | ||
HM - snowman | ||||
SUMSQ: | 688.2 | |||
SUMSQ Z: | -0.677 | |||
STP: | 75.0 | (9) | ||
TAE: | 90.7 | (8) | ||
AAE: | 3.36 | (7) | ||
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
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Click images to enlarge.
Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals
Monthly station snowfall summary for JAN-15.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.
Red ==> 25th percentile
NAO: +1.79
PNA: +0.14
PDO: +2.45 (monthly record)
Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals
Monthly station snowfall summary for DEC-14.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.
Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #6: The Forecasts!
Rookie 0
Intern 0
Journey 1
Senior 9
TOT 10
Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.
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Heaviest snowfall (+6") consensus along and to the right of a line from BWI - SBY - RIC - IAD - BWI
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Strong PNA signal.
AO playing catch-up.
NAO still wandering the wilderness. Once NAO goes negative ... winter will turn cold and snowy.
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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.
Monday, February 16, 2015
Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #5: Preliminary Verification
Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for SAT and SUN from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.
Generally good coverage and reporting; although ... daily liquid reports not available for ORH and PVD.
SBY/s 0.2" STP estimated from the METAR 6-group at 10:1 SN:H2O and observation of -TSSN.
HYA/s STP interpolated from vicinity reports.
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One new daily record
SUN ... 15-FEB-15
BOS - 13" (8.5"; 1904)
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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results TUE evening (if the power stays on at NEWxSFC World Headquarters)
Sunday, February 15, 2015
Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #6: Call for Forecasts!
Winter Gets Bored Savaging SNE
Goes Looking for New Innocents Over the Mid-Atlantic
On-set of modeled precipitation jumped up ~18 hours yesterday complicating the deadline for entries. Significant accumulations progged over southern portions of the forecast area MON evening as the LOW heads for the VA Capes; therefore the deadline for entries is 7 PM EST.Forecast should include snowfall observed anytime on MON ... 16-FEB over the southern half of the forecast area.
Contest for Storm #6 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.
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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 7 PM EST ... MON ... 16-FEB-15
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST ... MON ... 16-FEB-15
UPDATE: 9 AM EST ... MON ... 16-FEB-15
In light of developments progged by the 00z/16 GFS ... verification period for Storm #6 ends @ 11:59 PM EST ... TUE ... 17-FEB-15.
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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here.
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.
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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
Saturday, February 14, 2015
Winter '14 / '15 - Interim Standings: 2
After four snow storms ... it/s Don Sutherland ... Donald Rosenfeld ... and WeatherT.
Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least three forecasts are included in these interim standings.
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Complete interim statistics table and charts at the Contest/s web site here.
All verified forecasts from all forecasters for all Winter '14 / '15 contest storms here.
---
SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings.
If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade