Winter '14 / '15 - Ice Rings Manhattan Island

Brooklyn Bridge
AP Photo/Seth Wenig

Winter '14 / '15 - VCP32: Nothing Left to Live For

Winter '14 / '15 - Interim Standings: 4

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in these interim standings.

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Complete interim statistics table and charts at the Contest/s web site here.
All verified forecast statistics from all forecasters for all Winter '14 / '15 contest storms here.

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings.

If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.

Winter '14 / '15: C-O-L-D

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #6: FINAL Results

Full forecast verifications and summary for Storm #6 at the Contest/s web site.

	1st - Donald Rosenfeld
	SUMSQ:	31.60
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.935
	STP:	5.2	(1)
	TAE:	20.2	(1)
	AAE:	0.88	(1)
	2nd - Brad Yehl
	SUMSQ:	40.01
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.814
	STP:	12.8	(3)
	TAE:	24.6	(4)
	AAE:	0.99	(2)
	3rd - WeatherT
	SUMSQ:	44.9
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.743
	STP:	14.3	(5)
	TAE:	22.9	(2)
	AAE:	1.00	(3)
	HM - donsutherland1
	SUMSQ:	45.2
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.739
	STP:	12.9	(4)
	TAE:	24.3	(3)
	AAE:	1.01	(4)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Click images to enlarge.

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #6: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for MON and TUE from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.  Good coverage and reporting.

SBY/s STP estimated by applying RIC/s SN:H2O (10.4:1) to SBY/s storm-total liquid precipitation.

HYA/s STP interpolated from vicinity reports carried in PNSBOX.

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One new daily record
TUE ... 17-FEB-15
ISP - 3.4" (2.5"; 1996)

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Interesting to see the dramatic difference in SN:H2O where the 850-700 mb layer was warmer over southern portions of the forecast area.

Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results THU evening.





Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #5: FINAL Results

Full forecast verifications and summary for Storm #5 at the Contest/s web site.

	1st - TQ
	SUMSQ:	379.25
	SUMSQ Z:	-1.436
	STP:	27.5	(1)
	TAE:	56.3	(1)
	AAE:	2.09	(1)
	2nd - donsutherland1
	SUMSQ:	477.79
	SUMSQ Z:	-1.194
	STP:	42.2	(2)
	TAE:	69.0	(2)
	AAE:	2.56	(2)
	3rd - Mitchel Volk
	SUMSQ:	590.9
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.916
	STP:	44.5	(4)
	TAE:	79.8	(4)
	AAE:	3.07	(4)
	HM - snowman
	SUMSQ:	688.2
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.677
	STP:	75.0	(9)
	TAE:	90.7	(8)
	AAE:	3.36	(7)

 SUMSQ: sum of square errors
 STP: storm-total precipitation error
 TAE: total absolute error
 AAE: average absolute error
 (number): category rank

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Click images to enlarge.

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Totals

Monthly station snowfall summary for JAN-15.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

 

Green ==> 75th percentile

White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile
Red ==> 25th percentile

 

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Teleconnection Indexes

AO:  +1.092
NAO:  +1.79
PNA:  +0.14
PDO:  +2.45 (monthly record)

QBO:  -26.70 (monthly record)

MEI:  +0.406 (DEC-JAN)

Winter '14 / '15 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals

Monthly station snowfall summary for DEC-14.
Rank ordered by percent of monthly normal.

 

Green ==> 75th percentile

White ==> Less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile

Red ==> 25th percentile

 

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Teleconnection Indexes

AO:  +0.413

NAO:  +1.86

PNA:  +0.37

PDO:  +2.51 (monthly record)

QBO:  -25.35  (monthly record)

MEI:  +0.578 (NOV-DEC)

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #6: The Forecasts!

Rookie 0
Intern 0
Journey 1
Senior 9
TOT 10

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

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Heaviest snowfall (+6") consensus along and to the right of a line from  BWI - SBY - RIC - IAD - BWI

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Strong PNA signal.
AO playing catch-up.
NAO still wandering the wilderness.  Once NAO goes negative ... winter will turn cold and snowy.

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #6: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #5: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for SAT and SUN from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.
Generally good coverage and reporting; although ... daily liquid reports not available for ORH and PVD.

SBY/s 0.2" STP estimated from the METAR 6-group at 10:1 SN:H2O and observation of -TSSN.

HYA/s STP interpolated from vicinity reports.

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One new daily record
SUN ... 15-FEB-15
BOS - 13" (8.5"; 1904)

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results TUE evening (if the power stays on at NEWxSFC World Headquarters)

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #6: Call for Forecasts!

Winter Gets Bored Savaging SNE
Goes Looking for New Innocents Over the Mid-Atlantic

On-set of modeled precipitation jumped up ~18 hours yesterday complicating the deadline for entries.  Significant accumulations progged over southern portions of the forecast area MON evening as the LOW heads for the VA Capes; therefore the deadline for entries is 7 PM EST.

Forecast should include snowfall observed anytime on MON ... 16-FEB over the southern half of the forecast area.

Contest for Storm #6 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  7 PM EST ... MON ... 16-FEB-15

Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST ... MON ... 16-FEB-15
Verification ends:  when the snow stops falling
UPDATE:  9 AM EST ... MON ... 16-FEB-15
In light of developments progged by the 00z/16 GFS ... verification period for Storm #6 ends @ 11:59 PM EST ... TUE ... 17-FEB-15.

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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here.
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter ' 14 / '15 - Storm #4: NESIS

NESIS

Winter '14 / '15 - Interim Standings: 2

After four snow storms ... it/s Don Sutherland ... Donald Rosenfeld ... and WeatherT.

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least three forecasts are included in these interim standings.

---
Complete interim statistics table and charts at the Contest/s web site here.
All verified forecasts from all forecasters for all Winter '14 / '15 contest storms here.

---
SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings.

If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.  Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade